Poll Shows Slim Obama Lead

As Debates Begin, President Gains With Hispanic Voters, Romney With Men

By NEIL KING JR. And DANNY YADRON

October 2, 2012

Most People Don't See Debates as Game-Changing

Less than half of registered voters say the presidential debates will be important in helping them decide whether to back Romney or President Obama, according to the latest WSJ/NBC poll. Danny Yadron has details on The News Hub. (Photo: Getty Images)

10/2/2012 4:50:38 PM3:12

Less than half of registered voters say the presidential debates will be important in helping them decide whether to back Romney or President Obama, according to the latest WSJ/NBC poll. Danny Yadron has details on The News Hub. (Photo: Getty Images)

President Barack Obama heads into the first presidential debate with a narrow lead over Mitt Romney in a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News nationwide poll that illustrates each candidate's strengths and weaknesses entering the campaign's final stretch.

 

Associated Press

President Obama visited the Hoover Dam Tuesday in Boulder City, Nev.

The survey shows the race tightening, with Mr. Obama now leading 49% to 46% among likely voters, down slightly from the five-point lead he enjoyed in mid-September, just after the two parties' conventions. The survey of likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
Mr. Obama maintains commanding leads among Hispanics, young voters and women, with his share of the crucial Hispanic bloc appearing only to widen. A whopping 71% of likely Hispanic voters said they plan to vote for Mr. Obama.
Mr. Romney holds a strong margin of support among white voters and men, and he appears to be gaining a little strength among the college educated. His strengths there, though, aren't sufficient at this point to offset weaknesses elsewhere.

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Mr. Romney's challenge as he prepares for the first of three debates is whether he can chip into Mr. Obama's strongholds, particularly women. The question for Mr. Obama is whether he can translate his support among Hispanics, the young and African-Americans into actual votes, while minimizing the erosion of support for him among white voters.
The poll of 1,000 registered voters found 832 who were likely to vote in November. Mr. Obama led by a wider margin, 51% to 44%, among all registered voters surveyed, a number that is less indicative of what voters will do on Election Day. That lead was up from 50% to 44% in mid-September.
While finding a generally tight presidential race, the poll showed a surprising rise in public support for the idea of the same party controlling both Congress and the White House—evidence, perhaps, of deep frustration over partisan gridlock in Washington.
As a rule, voters tend to say they prefer that power in Washington be split between the two parties. For the first time in Journal polling going back to the mid-1980s, a majority of voters—52%—in the new survey threw their support behind one-party rule, with the strongest backing coming from partisans in either party. Nearly seven in 10 Democrats, and six in 10 Republicans, backed the idea.
Two years ago, just 29% of voters supported the concept. In a general-election year, support for one-party dominance tends to go up as partisans of each side see hope they can win both the White House and control of Congress. Still, the tendency is more pronounced than usual this year.
As a result, Senate and House candidates could find their fortunes bound more tightly than usual to the fates of their party's presidential candidate.

Three Things To Know About The New WSJ/NBC Poll
WSJ's Aaron Zitner breaks down the top three things to know about the new WSJ/NBC News poll released Tuesday. The race is tightening while support for single party rule in Washington grows. Via WSJ's #WorldStream.

WSJ's Aaron Zitner breaks down the top three things to know about the new WSJ/NBC News poll released Tuesday. The race is tightening while support for single party rule in Washington grows. Via WSJ's #WorldStream.

Mark Harrod, a 39-year-old independent from Jacksonville, Fla., said he longs for a return to the "Clinton days or the Reagan days, when people actually worked together." But because he believes neither party is willing to do that, the construction worker says he thinks Democrats should get another shot at running Washington.
"Maybe they'd get more done. Then there'd be no more excuses," Mr. Harrod said.
Rob Adrian, a Romney supporter from Plainfield, Ill., shares the impatience with Washington. His dream: Give Republicans at least two years to run the country unencumbered by Democratic opposition.
"We are so close to going over the cliff," he said. "I would really like to see the House, the Senate and the White House do away with what I believe are extremely bad decisions."
The last time the Democrats controlled both houses of Congress and the White House was during the first two years of the Obama administration. Republicans also controlled both Congress and the White House briefly during the Bush administration.

Presidential Debates: Why the Little Things Matter
The Journal's Jerry Seib and moderators Bob Schieffer, Jim Lehrer, Carole Simpson and Candy Crowley examine the most consequential presidential debates of the past 52 years, when, so often, one moment defined a candidate's performance. Photo: ABC

The Journal's Jerry Seib and moderators Bob Schieffer, Jim Lehrer, Carole Simpson and Candy Crowley examine the most consequential presidential debates of the past 52 years, when, so often, one moment defined a candidate's performance. Photo: ABC

Mr. Romney has managed to keep the presidential contest competitive despite a month that did little to burnish his standing in voters' eyes. More than half of the registered voters said they had a less-favorable impression of his campaign after all they had seen and read over the past couple of weeks, compared with 36% who said that of Mr. Obama.
Asked about Mr. Romney's widely aired comments to a donors' dinner that 47% of the country paid no taxes and saw themselves as victims, 45% said the remarks made them view Mr. Romney more negatively.
Yet the poll offered evidence of Mr. Romney's continued resilience as conservatives and the Republican Party faithful rally to his side.
"Romney is like the Timex watch—he takes a licking, but he keeps on ticking," said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducted the poll along with Republican Bill McInturff.
Much of Mr. Romney's continued traction in the race appears to stem from enduring voter apprehension toward the president, the poll shows. Mr. McInturff noted that white voters just before the 2008 election viewed Mr. Obama more positively than negatively by 10 percentage points. That reading has since swung to a 10-point gap on the negative side.
Overall, the poll showed the president's approval rating just below 50%, off from its 61% high in March 2009. "Barack Obama is not the same candidate as he was four years ago, after four years of the wear and tear of the presidency," Mr. McInturff said.
About four in 10 voters rated the three presidential debates as extremely or very important to their decision making, roughly on par with what voters said heading into past debates.
The poll contained signs of promise for the Obama campaign.
A majority of Americans still think the country is on the wrong track, but a larger number—57%, up from 50% in August—say the economy is improving. Just 13%, the lowest number since Mr. Obama took office, think the economy will get worse in the next four years.
Voters gave Mr. Obama higher marks over his rival on who has the clearer message and plan for what he would do if elected. A large majority, 65%, said Mr. Obama knows what he plans to do, compared with 52% who said that of Mr. Romney. The president also outpaced Mr. Romney on which candidate is seen as better prepared to lead over the next four years.
The president has preserved or strengthened his traction with voters since the summer on who would deal better with health care, Medicare, immigration and taxes. At the same time, Mr. Romney has lost ground since July on whom voters see as more likely to look out for the middle class, a core theme for both campaigns.
Mr. Romney has gained new ground on a number of fronts, including handling of foreign policy and dealing with the economy. Voters preferred the GOP challenger by healthy margins on how he would deal with the federal budget deficit and the economic challenge posed by China.
The poll found a strengthening of support for Mr. Romney among white men and college-educated voters.
But in a warning sign, Mr. Romney's support among likely Hispanic voters came in at just 21%. Republicans have widely predicted serious trouble for the Romney campaign if he can't get his support among Hispanics above 30%.
"The Hispanic numbers in this poll are a significant cautionary note, not just to Romney but across the Republican Party," said Mr. McInturff, the Republican pollster.
For the first time, the poll also tested voters on a ballot that included Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Gary Johnson, both of whom will appear on most state ballots.
With those names included, Mr. Obama led Mr. Romney, 48%-43%, among likely voters, with Mr. Johnson fetching 3% and Ms. Stein 2%.