By: Michael Monk Thursday February 24, 2011 8:17 am
In the “flashback quote of the day” at Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire, he highlights words from candidate Barack Obama, made in a 2007 speech (and referenced in Slate). That quote is as follows (spoken word differs slightly from the prepared text quoted by others, what follows is transcribed from the video):
And understand this: If American workers are being denied their right to organize and collectively bargain when I’m in the White House, I will put on a comfortable pair of shoes myself, I’ll will walk on that picket line with you as President of the United States of America. Because workers deserve to know that somebody is standing in their corner.
Well, will we see it? Or will it end up like the closing of Guantanamo Bay, a public option, or restoring constitutional checks and balances? He has given credence lately to false framing from the right with his freezing of pay of government workers, extention of the Bush tax cuts, a “deficit commission,” more budget cutting, and lip service to looking into deregulation when deregulation led us to financial collapse. Will he find those shoes?
Having had a chance to look at President Obama’s new budget, which he had the audacity to say will “help us live within our means.” It is clear Obama misspoke in his, I mean “Your Weekly Address.”
Obama’s budget proposes to spend $ 3.73 trillion, and includes another $ 1.1 trillion deficit. Worse, even with the Obama administration’s optimistic projections, the national debt would increase by another $ 7.2 trillion over the next 10 years.
In fairness, I must point out that President-elect Obama did promise us “trillion-dollar deficits for years to come.” Who knew he meant it?
But I digress. Even without the additional $ 7 trillion plus in additional debt in Obama’s proposed budget, you won’t be able to believe how broke the federal government is.
According to Duquesne University Economics Professor Antony Davies, the debt and unfunded obligations of the federal government are greater than the “economic output of the entire planet.” That’s right, the entire planet.
Watch Professor Davies detail how much the federal government owes in the following video:
We do not have a good frame of reference to understand the concept of a trillion. Professor Davies shared the following analogy to provide a frame of reference we can understand.
If the Federal government were scaled down to the size of the average US household, here’s what its finances would look like:
The Federal government would earn $ 50,000 a year in tax revenue (the same as the average US household).
It would be $ 325,000 in debt.
It would pay almost $ 10,000 a year in interest on that debt.
Last year, it would have spent $ 79,000.
This year, it is hoping to spend $ 86,000.
The $ 100 billion in spending cuts (that some politicians view as draconian) would be equivalent to the household cutting its $ 86,000 in planned spending down to a mere $ 83,700. Not a bad start, but the household has another $ 33,700 to go before it balances its budget.
Take a closer look at Professor Davies’ chart:
Germany’s GDP – $ 3.5 Trillion
Intergovernmental Debt – $ 4.63 Trillion
China’s GDP – $ 4.99 Trillion
Japan’s GDP – $ 5.07 Trillion
U.S. Debt Held by the Public – $ 9.46 Trillion
U.S. GDP – $ 14.26 Trillion
European Union GDP – $ 14.89 Trillion
Unfunded Social Security Obligations – $ 15 Trillion
Unfunded Medicare Obligations – $ 35 Trillion
World GDP (excluding U.S.) – $ 43.97 Trillion
World GDP – $ 58.23 Trillion
Total Federal Debt and Unfunded Obligations – $ 64.09 Trillion
Professor Davies offers these notes of clarification: The numbers are approximate in that, due to data availability, individual numbers come from reports over the span 2009 through 2010. The unfunded obligations figures come from the Social Security and Medicare Board of Trustees report. “Unfunded obligation” is (all in present value terms), the sum of all anticipated future SS and Medicare payments minus all future SS and Medicare tax revenues minus the current balance in the SS and Medicare trust funds. In short, it’s an amount of money the government would have to have on hand, today and in addition to future SS and Medicare tax revenues, in order to meet its anticipated SS and Medicare obligations for current and future retirees.
It is way past time that we stop this spend too much, tax too much and borrow too much fiscal insanity.
On the heels of questions about Walkers' intentions from Madison's police chief and mayor, Wisconsin State Senator Tim Carpenter has released the following statement.
Dear Governor Walker,
I am informed that a tape recording has been released in which you apparently held an extensive discussion with someone you believed to be your campaign supporter, David Koch. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel states that the caller was actually a reporter, pretending to be David Koch, and it has posted a transcript of the recording. It appears that you admit the call occurred, and have not contested the authenticity of transcript.
David Koch is the billionaire businessman who reportedly contributed thousands to your campaign and who the media claims is a key source of funding for shadowy political groups that spend hundreds of thousands of dollars attacking your political adversaries in our state.
At a historic moment in our State’s history, brought on by your refusal to compromise with elected officials regarding the elimination of worker’s rights, you still refuse to talk with Democratic legislators. However, you apparently have no problem taking a phone call from “Mr. Koch” and to:
• Discuss your strategy to lay off public workers to seek partisan advantage to pass
your agenda;
• Discuss your plan to lure Democratic legislators to the Capitol on the pretext of
negotiation, but then state that you would never actually negotiate;
• Discuss your plan to use the pretext of negotiation to get a quorum for legislative
fiscal action that Republicans so far have not been able to do;
• Discuss that you considered the “planting” of paid troublemakers into the
peaceful protests at our Capitol; and to
• Give your enthusiastic acceptance to an offer from “Koch” to fly you out on a vacation to show you a “good time” once you “crush these bastards.” Your response was “That would be outstanding…” Given that Koch’s businesses could reap vast rewards with the ‘no bid’ sale of the Wisconsin’s power plants that you propose in your budget repair bill, this response is severely troubling.
Governor Walker, this tape would make Richard Nixon blush. If the recording and the items discussed by you are indeed your plans, you have no business being in public office in our State, and should resign.
Sincerely,
Tim Carpenter
A fire burns in a street in the Libyan capital Tripoli in the early hours of yesterday morning
Gunfire in the suburbs – and hunger and rumour in the capital as thousands race for last tickets out of a city sinking into anarchy
Thursday, 24 February 2011
Up to 15,000 men, women and children besieged Tripoli's international airport last night, shouting and screaming for seats on the few airliners still prepared to fly to Muammar Gaddafi's rump state, paying Libyan police bribe after bribe to reach the ticket desks in a rain-soaked mob of hungry, desperate families. Many were trampled as Libyan security men savagely beat those who pushed their way to the front.
Among them were Gaddafi's fellow Arabs, thousands of them Egyptians, some of whom had been living at the airport for two days without food or sanitation. The place stank of faeces and urine and fear. Yet a 45-minute visit into the city for a new airline ticket to another destination is the only chance to see Gaddafi's capital if you are a "dog" of the international press.
There was little sign of opposition to the Great Leader. Squads of young men with Kalashnikov rifles stood on the side roads next to barricades of upturned chairs and wooden doors. But these were pro-Gaddafi vigilantes – a faint echo of the armed Egyptian "neighbourhood guard" I saw in Cairo a month ago – and had pinned photographs of their leader's infamous Green Book to their checkpoint signs.
There is little food in Tripoli, and over the city there fell a blanket of drab, sullen rain. It guttered onto an empty Green Square and down the Italianate streets of the old capital of Tripolitania. But there were no tanks, no armoured personnel carriers, no soldiers, not a fighter plane in the air; just a few police and elderly men and women walking the pavements – a numbed populace. Sadly for the West and for the people of the free city of Benghazi, Libya's capital appeared as quiet as any dictator would wish.
But this is an illusion. Petrol and food prices have trebled; entire towns outside Tripoli have been torn apart by fighting between pro- and anti-Gaddafi forces. In the suburbs of the city, especially in the Noufreen district, militias fought for 24 hours on Sunday with machine guns and pistols, a battle the Gadaffi forces won. In the end, the exodus of expatriates will do far more than street warfare to bring down the regime.
I was told that at least 30,000 Turks, who make up the bulk of the Libyan construction and engineering industry, have now fled the capital, along with tens of thousands of other foreign workers. On my own aircraft out of Tripoli, an evacuation flight to Europe, there were Polish, German, Japanese and Italian businessmen, all of whom told me they had closed down major companies in the past week. Worse still for Gaddafi, the oil, chemical and uranium fields of Libya lie to the south of "liberated" Benghazi. Gaddafi's hungry capital controls only water resources, so a temporary division of Libya, which may have entered Gaddafi's mind, would not be sustainable. Libyans and expatriates I spoke to yesterday said they thought he was clinically insane, but they expressed more anger at his son, Saif al-Islam. "We thought Saif was the new light, the 'liberal'", a Libyan businessman sad to me. "Now we realise he is crazier and more cruel than his father."
The panic that has now taken hold in what is left of Gaddafi's Libya was all too evident at the airport. In the crush of people fighting for tickets, one man, witnessed by an evacuated Tokyo car-dealer, was beaten so viciously on the head that "his face fell apart".
Talking to Libyans in Tripoli and expatriates at the airport, it is clear that neither tanks nor armour were used in the streets of Tripoli. Air attacks targeted Benghazi and other towns, but not the capital. Yet all spoke of a wave of looting and arson by Libyans who believed that with the fall of Benghazi, Gaddafi was finished and the country open to anarchy.
The centre of the city was largely closed up. All foreign offices have been shut including overseas airlines, and every bakery I saw was shuttered. Rumours abound that members of Gaddafi's family are trying to flee abroad. Although William Hague's ramblings about Gaddafi's flight to Venezuela have been disproved, I spoke to a number of Libyans who believed that Burkina Faso might be his only viable retreat. Two nights ago, a Libyan private jet approached Beirut airport with a request to land but was refused permission when the crew declined to identify their eight passengers. And last night, a Libyan Arab Airlines flight reported by Al Jazeera to be carrying Gaddafi's daughter, Aisha, was refused permission to land in Malta.
Gaddafi is blamed by Shia Muslims in Lebanon, Iraq and Iran for the murder of Imam Moussa Sadr, a supposedly charismatic divine who unwisely accepted an invitation to visit Gaddafi in 1978 and, after an apparent argument about money, was never seen again. Nor was a Lebanese journalist accompanying him on the trip.
While dark humour has never been a strong quality in Libyans, there was one moment at Tripoli airport yesterday which proved it does exist. An incoming passenger from a Libyan Arab Airlines flight at the front of an immigration queue bellowed out: "And long life to our great leader Muammar Gaddafi." Then he burst into laughter – and the immigration officers did the
For the tenth day in a row, protesters in Libya took to the streets today, despite the use of far more violence from the state than what happened during Egypt’s recent uprising.
According to Human Rights Watch, at least 322 people have been killed since the current wave of protests began on February 14. According the most recent report from Al Jazeera:
Witnesses in Tripoli told Al Jazeera that fighter jets had bombed portions of the city in fresh attacks on Monday night. The bombing focused on ammunition depots and control centres around the capital.
Helicopter gunships were also used, they said, to fire on the streets in order to scare demonstrators away.
Several witnesses said that “mercenaries” were firing on civilians in the city, while pro-Gaddafi forces warned people not to leave their homes via loudspeakers mounted on cars.
Residents of the Tajura neighbourhood, east of Tripoli, said that dead bodies are still lying on the streets from earlier violence. At least 61 people were killed in the capital on Monday, witnesses told Al Jazeera.
Despite these attempts to crush the movement, the protests appear to only be gaining momentum and there are many signs that the regime is crumbling.
First, there are reports of defections within the military, although it’s still unclear how extensive they have been. Some units have apparently put down their weapons and joined the protesters. In addition, two Libyan air force jets landed in Malta yesterday after their pilots refused to attack civilians in Benghazi.
Second, Libyan government officials both in the country and abroad have resigned. Again, as Al Jazeerareports:
Diplomats at Libyan embassies in the US, the United Nations, the Arab League, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Poland, India and Bangladesh, among others, have either resigned from their posts, or disavowed links to Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi’s government.
There are also encouraging signs that the opposition to Gaddafi is beginning to use other nonviolent tactics. At the Nafoora oilfield, for example, oil workers have gone on strike.
If Gaddafi continues to show his willingness to attack protesters — especially with foreign mercenaries, if those accusations are true — then Libyans seeking his downfall would be wise to consider shifting to tactics, like strikes or boycotts, that would be far more difficult for the government’s security apparatus to repress than large-scale demonstrations.
Let us not forget that Mubarak only stepped down in Egypt after workers began going on strike across the country, which threatened to paralyze the country’s economy.
[This article appears courtesy of a partnership with Waging Nonviolence.]
Feb. 21, 2011 - Berlin, Germany - About 100 demonstrators stage a protest outside the Libyan embassy in Berlin as reports indicate widespread and dramatic loss of life at anti-government protests in Libya multiply.Hannibal Hanschke/Zumapress.com
The following is a basic primer on what's happening in Libya. You can also jump straight to today's updates.
Last week, Libyan dissident Najla Aburrahman begged[1] western media to pay attention to the bloodbath unfolding in her country. "If the Libyan protesters are ignored," she wrote, "the fear is that [Libyan dictator Muammar] Qaddafi— a man who appears to care little what the rest of the world thinks of him—will be able to seal the country off from foreign observers, and ruthlessly crush any uprising before it even has a chance to begin."
Since then, Qaddafi’s troops have used machine guns and large-caliber weapons[2] against protesters in Benghazi, the country’s second-biggest city, and more than 200 protesters[3], including children, have reportedly been killed. Why are Libyans unhappy?
Libya has been ruled for 42 years by a cunning, repressive, eccentric dictator who has frequently described his own people as "backwards[4]." More than half of his 6.5 million subjects are under 18. Despite Libya's plentiful oil revenues, which represent most of the national budget, many children suffer from malnutrition and anemia[5]. Corruption is rampant[6], dissidents are brutally suppressed[7], and many citizens are afraid to say Qaddafi’s name in public or in private for fear of attracting suspicion. Instead, Qaddafi is often referred to as "the leader" and his son Seif (until now heir-apparent) as "the principal." Discussing national policy with a foreigner is punishable with three years in prison. Reporters Without Borders describes press freedom in Libya as "virtually non-existent."
Oil is the economy in Libya and oil profits have bankrolled massive investments in education and infrastructure—yet Libya lags far behind other oil-rich Arab states. Unemployment stands at 30 percent. People who have jobs often work only part-time. Basic foods—including rice, sugar, flour, gasoline—are heavily subsidized by the government and sold for a fraction of their true cost. A 2006 New Yorker article[5] described Libya's "prosperity without employment and large population of young people without a sense of purpose."
Libya's society is tribal and traditional—despite liberal laws on issues such as women's rights—and many Libyans identify via clan allegiance first, nationality second.
Some in Libya hoped that Seif Qaddafi, who has been growing more prominent as an adviser to his father, would create openings for democratic reform. Seif earned a doctorate in political philosophy from the London School of Economics and keeps Bengal tigers as pets. He has founded the "Qaddafi International Charity and Development Foundation[8]," which supposedly seeks to promote human rights and fight the use of torture in Libya and across the Middle East. Wasn’t Qaddafi that guy who set up a giant tent on Donald Trump’s spread?
Yup, he's the guy[9]. During his 2009 trip to the United Nations General Assembly in New York, Qaddafi had hoped to sleep and entertain guests inside an elaborate Bedouin-style tent in Manhattan's Central Park. That didn't work out, so instead the dictator rented land on a suburban property owned by Donald Trump. The tent was erected and then dismantled after a public outcry, and both Trump and the Secret Service announced that Qaddafi wasn't coming after all. Why can't anyone agree on how to spell Qaddafi's name?
Since at least the 1980s, the name has been alternately spelled as "Moammar / Muammar Gadaffi /Gaddafi / Gathafi / Kadafi / Kaddafi /Khadafy / Qadhafi / Qathafi /etc.," according to Chris Suellentrop at Slate[10]. They’re all different attempts at transliterating Arabic pronunciation. How did all this start?
Inspired by pro-democracy uprisings across the Arab world, Libyan dissidents had planned a "day of rage" for Thursday, Feb. 17. On February 15, security forces arrested a prominent lawyer named Fathi Terbil, who had represented families of some of the 1,200 prisoners massacred by Libyan security forces at Abu Slim prison in 1996. Once released later that day, Terbil set up a webcam overlooking Benghazi’s main square, where some of the families had been protesting. With help from exiled Libyans in Canada and around the world, the video spread rapidly on the Internet.
Al Jazeera Arabic conducted a phone interview with Libyan novelist Idris al-Mesmari, who reported that police were shooting at protesters—and then the connection was lost. (Mesmari was reportedly arrested by Libyan authorities.) Shortly thereafter, thousands more began battling Qaddafi's troops, and hundreds are reported to have been killed. "Both protesters and the security forces have reason to believe that backing down will likely mean their ultimate death or imprisonment," says the New York Times[11]. What are the implications of Libyan instability?
After decades of being reviled as a state sponsor of terrorism, Libya recently reversed course and joined the ranks of America's allies in the fight against Al Qaeda. In 2003, Qaddafi agreed to stop developing weapons of mass destruction and paid $2.7 billion to the families of the 270 victims of Pan Am 101—the plane bombed by Libyan agents over Lockerbie, Scotland in 1988. In return, the US and the United Nations lifted economic sanctions against Libya.
On the Arab street, however, Qaddafi is widely loathed. Most of his political victims have been members of banned Islamist groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood, which would likely gain stronger influence if he were overthrown. Qaddafi, once among the Palestinian movement's most vocal international supporters, outraged many Arabs by saying that Palestinians have no special claim to the land of Israel and calling for the creation of a bi-national "Isratine[12]." What's the latest?
On Sunday, February 20, protesters succeeded in overtaking all parts of Benghazi except for a government security compound. Qaddafi's son gave a long, rambling televised speech in which he blamed Islamic radicals and Libyan exiles for the uprising. He claimed civil war over the country's oil resources would set off starvation, cause public services including education to collapse, and could spark a Western invasion. He said, "We will fight until the last man, until the last woman, until the last bullet."
Protests have now spread to the capital[13], Tripoli, with thousands of demonstrators converging onto the city's main square and reportedly taking over state television headquarters. They faced well-armed pro-Qaddafi militias who fired into the crowds. The Libyan government has sought to impose an information blackout, blocking the internet and satellite television and forbidding foreign journalists from entering. Al-Jazeera remains the most comprehensive source of coverage; you can follow its live blog here[14].
UPDATE 1, Monday, Feb. 21, 9:00 a.m. EST/4:00 p.m. Tripoli (Nick Baumann[15]): SkyNews is reporting[16] that witnesses claim the state television building and other public buildings in Tripoli are on fire.
UPDATE 2, Monday, Feb. 21, 11:45 a.m. EST/6:45 p.m. Tripoli (Nick Baumann[15]): Al Jazeera (via Sultan al Qassemi[17]) reports multiple accounts of airplanes attacking protesters in Tripoli. Shadi Hamid, an expert on the Arab world at the Brookings Institution, slams the Western response[18] as "business as usual," and asks whether the West is even capable of "bold, creative policymaking." The Atlantic's Max Fisher, meanwhile, says[19] that while the media blackout means the air-attack claims are impossible for press to verify, if they're true, the United Nations should "shut down Libyan airspace immediately." UPDATE 3, Monday, Feb. 21, 12:15 p.m. EST/7:15 p.m. Tripoli (Nick Baumann[15]): Mobile and television networks are down across Libya. Al Hurra (a satellite television competitor of Al Jazeera's that is sponsored by the US government) is reporting that the Libyan ambassador in London has resigned and joined protests outside the embassy. The network is also reporting that helicopters carrying senior Libyan officials have left Tripoli "in the direction of Malta," according to Sultan Al Qassemi. (If you're not following him on Twitter[20], you should be.) William Hague, the British foreign minister, has said that Qaddafi fled to Venezuala, but the Venezualans are denying that. And the head of the Libyan Army is reportedly under house arrest. In short: it's chaos, and no one knows for sure what is happening. There are also reports just now that the Libyan ambassador to Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim-majority country, has also resigned. UPDATE 4, Monday, Feb. 21, 12:50 p.m. EST/7:50 p.m. Tripoli (Nick Baumann[15]): NBC News reports[21] that the State Department has ordered all non-emergency personnel to leave Libya immediately. The resigned Libyan ambassador to India told Al Jazeera[22] "it is only a matter of days until the regime is finished." And The Guardianconfirms earlier reports[23] that several Libyan airplanes and helicopters have landed in Malta. They were reportedly piloted by Libyan colonels seeking asylum. The earlier reports of military planes attacking protesters also seem to be close to confirmation—Reuters has published a story citing more eyewitnesses to the attack. UPDATE 5, Monday, Feb. 21, 2:41 p.m. EST/9:41 p.m. Tripoli (Siddhartha Mahanta[24]): Witnesses saw armed militiamen speeding into Tripoli’s Green Square in Toyota trucks, firing on protestors[25] fighting with riot police. Many of the gunmen are believed to be from other African countries. Meanwhile, Colonel Qaddafi’s security forces have retreated into buildings around Tripoli, which remains under the control of rebel forces. And in a sign of deepening internal fissures, some of Qaddafi's top officials have broken ranks with the government. Meanwhile, protestors in Benghazi—where the uprising began—have released a list of demands for a secular interim government led by the army in cooperation with a council of Libyan tribes. And on Democracy Now, Libyan poet Khaled Mattawa says [26]his country is "forever changed" by the uprising.
UPDATE 6, Monday, Feb. 21, 3:11 p.m. EST/10:11 p.m. Tripoli (Ashley Bates[27]): UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon has spoken with Qaddafi and told him the violence "must stop immediately," a UN spokesperson said[28]. The BBC reports that Qaddafi was still in Libya during this Monday phone call.
In an apparent defection, two Libyan fighter jets have landed in Malta, the Times of Malta reports[29]. The pilots had presumably refused orders to bomb protesters in Benghazi.
Al-Jazeera Arabic reports that it's received videos of murdered protesters that are too graphic to air. The video below, which was released by Al-Jazeera English, gives (non-graphic) on-the-ground footage and a concise synopsis of events on Saturday and Sunday.
UPDATE 7, Monday, Feb. 21, 4:05 p.m. EST/11:11 p.m. Tripoli (Ashley Bates[27]): Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has very belatedly condemned[30] the violence against civilians in Libya, calling it "unacceptable." Over the weekend, Berlusconi said he hadn't phoned Qaddafi because he didn't want to "disturb" him amidst the uprisings. As chronicled by Mother Jones senior correspondent James Ridgeway[31], Berlusconi and Qaddafi have worked together to catch Italy-bound migrants and asylum seekers. Berlusconi, who is on trial for allegedly having sex with an underage prostitute, has courted Libyan petrodollars, and rolled out the red carpet during Qaddafi's multiple visits to Italy. In June of 2009, Qaddafi flew one thousand Italian women[32] to Libya for a "cultural tour." Just last week, Berlusconi reportedly sent a Danish IC4 train[33] to Qaddafi as a gift.
UPDATE 8, Monday, Feb. 21, 4:20 p.m. EST/11:20 p.m. Tripoli (Nick Baumann[15]):Yusuf al-Qaradawi[34], a prominent Muslim theologian, was just on Al Jazeera. He issued a fatwa during the interview calling for the death of Qaddafi. Sultan Al Qassemi's translation[20]: "To any army soldier, to any man who can pull the trigger & kill this man, do so. Save your countrymen from this brutal tyrant. It is wrong of you to stand by while he kills innocent people." Meanwhile, Al Jazeera reports that the Egyptian army's Facebook page has been updated with news that Libyan border guards have withdrawn from Egypt's boundary with Libya. And Al Jazeera English just reported that the Libyan ambassador to the US has resigned and come out against Qaddafi. (UPDATE: Foreign Policy's Blake Hounshell clarifies that the ambassador may not have technically resigned, but calls it a "moot point" given the ambassador's explicit criticism of the regime.) Meanwhile, Foreign Policy's Marc Lynch is calling for US and international intervention[35]: "NATO enfoced no-fly zone, hold [Qaddafi] + regime individually responsible for deaths, call urgent [security council] meeting, targeted sanctions."
UPDATE 9, Monday, Feb. 21, 5:45 p.m. EST/12:45 a.m. Tuesday Tripoli (Nick Baumann[15]): CNN has a truly awful video[36] of what it says are the bodies of Libyan soldiers who refused to shoot at protesters. And here's Marc Lynch's writeup[37] of his call for international intervention I mentioned in Update 8. UPDATE 10, Monday, Feb. 21, 6:10 p.m. EST/1:10 a.m. Tuesday Tripoli (Nick Baumann[15]): The State Department has released a transcript[38] of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's recent comments on Libya:
The world is watching the situation in Libya with alarm. We join the international community in strongly condemning the violence in Libya. Our thoughts and prayers are with those whose lives have been lost, and with their loved ones. The government of Libya has a responsibility to respect the universal rights of the people, including the right to free expression and assembly. Now is the time to stop this unacceptable bloodshed. We are working urgently with friends and partners around the world to convey this message to the Libyan government.
UPDATE 11, Monday, Feb. 21, 6:45 p.m. EST/1:45 a.m. Tripoli (Ashley Bates[27]): Egypt and Tunisia have both set up field hospitals[39] on their borders with Libya and are trying to send help. A group of Libyan military officers have released a statement[40] calling on all members of the Libyan army to join the protesters. Al-Jazeera Arabic reports that advertisements in Guinea and Nigeria are offering up to $2,000 per day to fight as mercenaries for the Libyan army. And Libyan State TV has just announced that Qaddafi will speak shortly.
UPDATE 12, Monday, Feb. 21, 7:20 p.m. EST/2:20 a.m. Tuesday Tripoli (Nick Baumann[15]): In what almost seemed like a piece of bizarre, horrible performance art (with awful consequences), Qaddafi just spoke on Libyan state television. The whole appearance lasted about 15 seconds and consisted of him saying that he is in Tripoli, not Venezuela (as British foreign secretary William Hague had claimed), and warning citizens not to believe "the dog tv channels" saying otherwise. He was holding an umbrella, too. The whole thing was a stark reminder of the fact that an entire country is ruled by a man who is at best a very odd tyrant who is totally willing to kill his people and at worst a total madman—or, as The Atlantic's Max Fisher writes[41], a "f***king loon."
UPDATE 13, Tuesday, Feb. 22, 1:15 a.m. EST/6:15 a.m. Tripoli (Ashley Bates[27]): Below is a translated YouTube video of Qaddafi's bizarre television appearance.
CNN's Ben Wendeman has managed to sneak into Libya from Egypt[42], making him the first (and presumably only) western television correspondent to be reporting from Libya. He found no officials, passport control, or customs on the Libyan side of the border. A Libyan man said to him, "You must show the world what has happened here. We will show you everything, everything!"
UPDATE 14, Tuesday, Feb. 22, 10:30 a.m. EST/5:30 p.m. Tripoli (Nick Baumann[15]): Lots of news to catch up on this morning:
There are scattered reports of both Benghazi (Libya's second-largest city and the place where the uprising started) and Tobruk[43] (a large city and strategic port) being in the hands of rebels. The German press agency DPA reports[44] that Benghazi's airstrip has been totally destroyed[45].
A group of Libyan military officers has reportedly[46] asked all members of the Libyan army to move towards the Tripoli, the capital, and attempt to depose Qaddafi.
NBC's Richard Engel reports[47] that Libyans are already suffering from shortages of "rice, flour, sugar, [and] oil."
Human Rights Watch says[48] at least 62 people have been confirmed killed in Tripoli, the capital, since Sunday.
The United Nations Security Council is holding a closed-door session today to discuss the violence in Libya. The BBC's Eleanor Montague reports[49] that Britain will ask the UN to "take action" on Libya "because of its implications for security in the region."
Al Jazeera reports that Libyan state television is claiming that Qaddafi will give another address shortly. It remains to be seen whether it will be as bizarre as his last one.
I don't call for a direct military intervention. And I am keenly, painfully aware of all that could go wrong with even the kinds of responses I am recommending. But right now those fears are outweighed by the urgent imperative of trying to prevent the already bloody situation from getting much, much worse. This is not a peaceful democracy protest movement which the United States can best help by pressuring allied regimes from above, pushing for long-term and meaningful reform, and persuading the military to refrain from violence. It's gone well beyond that already, and this time I find myself on the side of those demanding more forceful action before it's too late.
UPDATE 16, Tuesday, Feb. 22, 11:50 a.m. EST/6:50 p.m. Tripoli (Nick Baumann[15]): Qaddafi is still in the midst of a long, rambling speech, full of threats and bluster and general delusion and stubbornness. It's "like a mashup of every dictator's excuse ever. Protesters want to Islamify Libya, turn it into... Somalia. Or something," writes[50]Wired's Spencer Ackerman. The headline, though, is Qaddafi's pretty much explicit promise to slaughter protesters. Qaddafi promised the death penalty for numerous crimes, and mentioned Tiannemen Square and suggested the Chinese regime had done the right thing. "If there was any doubt before, there is no longer: Qaddafi has unequivocally declared intention to massacre his own people," says[51] Brookings' Shadi Hamid. Other highlights: "We Libyans resisted the... United States and Britain in the past, we will not surrender." "I will not leave the country, and I will die as a martyr." "We will not lose one inch of this land." "We will flight to the last man and woman and bullet." The Times of Malta has perhaps the best early summary of the speech[52]. UPDATE 17, Tuesday, Feb. 22, 6:15 p.m. EST/Wednesday, Feb. 23, 1:15 a.m. Tripoli (Siddhartha Mahanta[24]): The Associated Press reports[53] that Italian Premier Silvio Berlusconi has spoken to Qaddafi on the phone, as his brutal crackdown on anti-government protests continues. As Jim Ridgeway outlined[31], the two rulers and their countries are close, and signed a "friendship treaty" in 2008 that called for Italy to pay Libya $5 billion in compensation for its 30-year colonial occupation. Meanwhile, concerns about Italy's natural gas supplies continue to mount[54] after the country's chief energy company, ENI, said it had suspended supplies through its Greenstream pipeline. It runs from Libya to Sicily, and supplies 10 percent of Italy’s natural gas. UPDATE 18, Tuesday, Feb. 22, 6:27 p.m. EST/Wednesday, Feb. 23, 1:27 a.m. Tripoli (Ashley Bates[27]): Mother Jones has interviewed Libyan poet and University of Michigan professor Khaled Mattawa, whorecounts the horrors[55] of growing up under the Qaddafi regime. He says, "This is the moment we've been waiting for."
UPDATE 19, Wednesday, Feb. 23, 10:08 a.m. EST/5:08 p.m. Tripoli (Siddhartha Mahanta[24]): Things could be coming to a head:
Reports from towns near Tripoli suggest that fighting has reached the capital's doorstep[56], reports The New York Times. And the spate of high-level defections from the Qaddafi regime continues, with interior minister Abdel Fattah Younes al-Abidi leaving on Tuesday night. He urged the Libyan Army to join the people and their “legitimate demands.” State media claimed he has been kidnapped by “gangs.” Towns in the east continue to, in essence, declare their independence and establish up informal opposition governments. "The widening gap between the capital and the eastern countryside underscored the radically different trajectory of the Libyan revolt from the others that recently toppled Arab autocrats on Libya’s western and eastern borders, in Tunisia and Egypt," reports Times. Internet access in Tripoli remains blocked, and phone service is only intermittent.
Foreign governments are continuing their mad rush to evacuate their citizens[57] from Libya, chartering military and civilian planes and even mobilizing military ships. It's unclear how many Americans remain in Libya.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy is calling on the European Union to impose sanctions against Libya[58]. "I call on the foreign ministry to propose to our European Union partners the swift adoption of concrete sanctions so that all those involved in the ongoing violence know that they must assume the consequences of their actions," he told a cabinet meeting on Wednesday. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has also said she would support sanctions if Qaddafi's doesn’t stop using violence against his own people. And the White House said on Tuesday that it is examining proposals by Senator John Kerry (D-Mass.) to consider reimposing sanctions.
UPDATE 20, Wednesday, Feb. 23, 10:20 a.m. EST/5:20 p.m. Tripoli (Siddhartha Mahanta[24]): Italian foreign minister Franco Frattini says[59] his country estimates that 1,000 people have died in Libya since the uprising began.
UPDATE 21, Wednesday, Feb. 23, 11:30 a.m. EST/6:30 p.m. Tripoli (Siddhartha Mahanta[24]): Hewing close to his Egypt-react script, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad condemned[60] Qaddafi for "unimaginable repression" against the Libyan people. "It is unimaginable that someone is killing his citizens, bombarding his citizens," Ahmadinejad said on state television. "How can officers be ordered to use bullets from machine guns, tanks and guns against their own citizens?...This is unacceptable. Let the people speak, be free, decide to express their will...Do not resist the will of the people." UPDATE 22, Wednesday, Feb. 23, 11:51 a.m. EST/6:30 p.m. Tripoli (Ashley Bates[27]): Thomas Friedman argues[61] in today's New York Times that events unfolding in Libya and across the Middle East highlight the failures of oil interest-driven US foreign policy. His solution: a $1-a-gallon gasoline tax, to be phased in at 5 cents a month beginning in 2012, with all the money going to pay down the US deficit. Friedman says:
For the last 50 years, America (and Europe and Asia) have treated the Middle East as if it were just a collection of big gas stations: Saudi station, Iran station, Kuwait station, Bahrain station, Egypt station, Libya station, Iraq station, United Arab Emirates station, etc. Our message to the region has been very consistent: "Guys (it was only the guys we spoke with), here's the deal. Keep your pumps open, your oil prices low, don't bother the Israelis too much, and, as far as we're concerned, you can do whatever you want out back.
The contrast between Libya and its neighbors is stark. When I visited Tunisia just a few months before going to Tripoli, I met plenty of people willing to criticize Ben Ali even when others were present. Sure, they lowered their voices, but they didn’t cower in fear. Egypt under Mubarak was even more open. I spoke to dissident bloggers like “Big Pharaoh” and “Sandmonkey” in restaurants and bars, and they didn’t care if anyone heard them slagging the president. Cairo’s mukhabarat didn’t seem to mind what anyone said as long as they didn’t act on their disgruntlement. Granted, regimes like these wouldn’t have lasted decades if they were easy to get rid of, but, ultimately, they lack the staying power of the hard totalitarian states.
States like Libya, that is. Tunisia is pleasant, prosperous, and heavily Frenchified, while Egypt is a poverty-stricken shambles, but Ben Ali and Mubarak were both pragmatic, standard issue authoritarians. Qaddafi, by comparison, is an emotionally unstable ideological megalomaniac. He says he’s the sun of Africa and swears to unite the Arabs and Africans underneath him. He has repeatedly threatened to ban money and schools, and he treats his country, communist-style, like a mad scientist’s laboratory. What I knew when I was there holds true today, even as his grip on power seems shaky: This guy is not going to liberalize, and he is not going to go quietly.
UPDATE 24, Wednesday, Feb. 23, 1:25 p.m. EST/8:25 p.m. Tripoli (Siddhartha Mahanta[24]): The Atlantic's Max Fisher tweets[63]: "Isolated but largely consistent reports seem to indicate sweeping military defections across Libya's northeast." And, on the ground, Anjali Kamat's tweet[64] confirms that things are breaking down for Qaddafi: "Entering #Libya now. Greeted by army who have all joined revolution. Man checking our passports is an airforce major general #feb17" UPDATE 25, Wednesday, Feb. 23, 2:07 p.m. EST/9:07 p.m. Tripoli (Siddhartha Mahanta[24]): Two from earlier today that're worth a read. First, Leslie Gelb urges caution[65], not grandiose action, for the United States. "My fear is that an activist and grand strategy will grossly exaggerate America’s power to shape events and will do more harm than good," he writes. And former CIA field officer Robert Baer reports[66] from sources in Libya on just how far Qaddafi is willing to go to maintain his grip on power. Qaddafi "has ordered security services to start sabotaging oil facilities. They will start by blowing up several oil pipelines, cutting off flow to Mediterranean ports. The sabotage, according to the insider, is meant to serve as a message to Libya's rebellious tribes: It's either me or chaos." UPDATE 26, Wednesday, Feb. 23, 2:35 p.m. EST/9:35 p.m. Tripoli (Siddhartha Mahanta[24]): The International Organization for Migration reports[67] that migrants have begun to cross into Tunisia from Libya. "Although most of the arrivals have largely been...Tunisian... nationals migrants of various nationalities"—including Syrian, Lebanese, Turkish, and German—"have been crossing the border into Tunisia’s Medenine Governorate requesting assistance to go back home," IOM writes in a press release. Additional IOM staff are set to deploy to the border area. UPDATE 27, Wednesday Feb. 23, 3:55 p.m. EST/10:55 p.m. Tripoli (Siddhartha Mahanta[24]): This is the way we bail. Channel News Asia has a short dispatch[68] on a pair of Libyan pilots who refused orders to bomb Benghazi. And The New York Timesreports[69] that thousands of African mercenaries and militiamen are heading to Tripoli to back up Qaddafi, as rebel forces continue to secure their control of surrounding towns. Witnesses say that protestors appear to have taken control of the northwestern city of Misurata. UPDATE 28, Wednesday. Feb. 23, 5:56 p.m. EST/Thursday, Feb. 24, 12:56 a.m. Tripoli (Ashley Bates[27]): Earlier today, I spoke on the phone with Ali Ahmida, a University of New England political science professor whose work explores power, agency, and anti-colonial resistance in Libya. Here are some of his thoughts:
On Where This Could Be Headed: Unfortunately, I think it’s going to get worse. The regime closed the last chances for reform and negotiations when Seif Qaddafi gave this really threatening speech that was more of a declaration of war, an ultimatum....The regime is clinging to the old days, thinking they can crush the opposition. On France's No-Fly Zone Proposal[70]: No, no, no. I think it's is a bad idea. I think, in the long run, it would be a liability more than a help. The Libyan people have fought against one of the most brutal western colonizations in Africa. They lost half a million people in the [1911-1943] war against Italian colonialism and 60,000 people perished in the [Italian] concentration camps. So Libyan people are very wary of foreign intervention....And Iraq is a big, lousy lesson for all of us. Look at how much killing happened in Iraq. How much agony. And how the exiled Iraqis have really conned the United States. On Libya’s Democratic Potential: It's possible there would be no democracy after Qaddafi, but that's not unusual. It's not because the people don't want freedom of choice or democracy. It's because either the state and its authoritarian forces are too powerful, or because the [western] conservatives have always supported dictatorships and absolutist monarchies. They are just as guilty. Having democracy is not an easy matter. As in the American and the western experience, this is going to take more than just having a constitution and voting rights....I also think that question has to be guarded against foreign intervention and an exaggerated role for the Libyan exile community, which has been out of touch for a long time. On What America Should Do: First, pressure the Libyan regime through the UN to negotiate a peaceful transition and stop the killing. Second, really try to learn about Libyan society. There's a huge vacuum in our knowledge about Libya. We reduce it to tribes and clans, or to Qaddafi, or to oil. There's nothing about Libyan society. I find that appalling, even among our commentators and our scholars.
UPDATE 29, Wednesday. Feb. 23, 6:13 p.m. EST/Thursday, Feb. 24, 1:13 a.m. Tripoli (Ashley Bates[27]):In his first televised comments on the Libya crisis[71], Obama announced that he's sending Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Geneva for a meeting of the UN Human Rights Council and for talks with allied foreign ministers. Obama condemned the Qaddafi government's "outrageous" violence, said that protecting American citizens in Libya was his "highest priority," and rejected allegations that western powers are meddling in Arab uprisings. "The change that is taking place across the region is being driven by the people of the region," he said. UPDATE 30, Wednesday, Feb. 23, 8:00 p.m. EST/3:00 a.m. Thursday in Tripoli (Nick Baumann[15]):The Independent's Robert Fisk, who seems to be the first Western reporter to get into Tripoli, has a report from "a city in the shadow of death."[72]
UPDATE 31, Thursday, Feb. 24, 10:52 a.m. EST/5:52 p.m. Tripoli (Siddhartha Mahanta[24]): Today: witnesses say Qaddafi is consolidating his forces in preparation for a showdown against rebel forces in Tripoli.
Qaddafi's forces are fortifying their position around Tripoli, as cities in the east continue to fall to rebel forces and defections from the military and his inner circle continue. Witnesses told the The New York Times[73] that members of Qaddafi's forces—made up, in large part, of mercenaries and slices of the military loyal to his tribe and its allies—were training their energies on the roads leading to the capital, while establishing checkpoints on the road to the west of Tripoli. And there are now reports of protests in the pro-Qaddafi city of Sabha for the first time. Meanwhile, Egyptian officials said on Wednesday that nearly 30,000 people, mostly Egyptian, had fled across the border back to their home country.
The latest defector: Qaddafi aide (and cousin) Ahmed Gadhaf al-Dam, who announced on Thursday that he has defected to Egypt in protest against the regime's crackdown "grave violations to human rights and human and international laws,” reports[74] the Associated Press.
In a speech aired on state television on Wednesday, Qaddafi blamed the unrest on Al Qaeda, reports Al Jazeera[75]. "It is obvious now that this issue is run by al-Qaeda...No one above the age of 20 would actually take part in these events...They are taking advantage of the young age of these people [to commit violent acts] because they are not legally liable!"
UPDATE 32, Thursday, Feb. 24, 12:13 p.m. EST/7:13 p.m. Tripoli (Siddhartha Mahanta[24]): Two from Mother Jones: Jim Ridgewaysheds more light[76] on the cozy relationship between and Italy, oil, immigrants, and all. And Mac McClellandspeculates[77] on why the UN has dragged its feet in Libya: "When it comes to the lack of meaningful UN action on Libya, it's not disorganization, or excessive bureaucracy to blame—just a healthy dose of sacklessness." UPDATE 33, Thursday. Feb. 24, 12:22 p.m. EST/ 7:22 p.m. Tripoli (Ashley Bates[27]): Below is a compelling three-minute video recently posted by Al-Jazeera. It tightly summarizes the events of the last few days, features non-graphic footage from cities across Libya, and shows chilling clips from Libyan state television.
UPDATE 34, Thursday, Feb. 24, 1:56 p.m. EST/8:56 p.m. Tripoli (Siddhartha Mahanta[24]): Just tweeted[78] by @SultanAlQassemi: "Breaking Al Hurra: the Libyan mission to the UN takes down Gaddafi's green flag & raises the Kingdom of #Libya independence flag instead."
UPDATE 35, Thursday, Feb. 24, 4:20 p.m. EST/11:20 p.m. Tripoli (Siddhartha Mahanta[24]): Another must-watch[79] from Al Jazeera: an interview with Muhammad al-Senussi, the man who would have been Libya’s crown prince. The country was a monarchy until Qaddafi led a coup in 1969. UPDATE 36, Thursday, Feb. 24, 5:22 p.m. EST/Friday, Feb. 25, 12:22 a.m. Tripoli (David Corn[80]):I just spoke[81] to a friend's husband who is in Benghazi. He's Libyan, works there and in Europe, and his family is in this city, the second largest in the Libya. He asks that I don't use his name—because Muammar Qaddafi is not gone yet (and though he'll eventually return to Europe, his relatives won't). He reports:
* Benghazi is quiet and safe. Shops and banks—though not schools—were open today. He had no trouble driving throughout the city. "Everybody's fine," he says. I'ts very safe... Unbelievably. Nobody is afraid of Qaddafi like before."
* The Internet is not functioning in the city. International phone service is sketchy. Many residents are receiving and watching Al Jazeera.
* The city is being governed by an ad hoc assortment of military people, police, past government officials, and groups of citizens.
* There is a major fear shared by the residents of Benghazi: that Qaddafi will launch an air assault on the city. My friend's husband notes that the military guarding the city does not possess anti-aircraft guns. He says that because Qaddafi was distrustful of this region, he did not supply the military based there with large amounts of weaponry. "We cannot fight back against an air attack," he says.
* The residents of Benghazi have been trying to follow what's happening in Tripoli. "I was able to talk to a friend in Tripoli," he notes. "He told me, 'It's hell in Tripoli. There's shooting everywhere. Qaddafi's mafia is shooting people everywhere in the city.'"
He's hopeful that the violence in Libya—a friend of his was shot and killed in Benghazi—will soon be over and Qaddafi gone. "In a couple of days," he says, "everything will be finished." UPDATE 37, Thursday, Feb. 24, 6:28 p.m. EST/Friday, Feb. 25, 1:28 a.m. Tripoli (Ashley Bates[27]): More bizarre, disturbing news: The US State Department announced today[82] that the Libyan government may arrest foreign journalists who enter the country illegally as "Al-Qaida collaborators." Western and Arab journalists, including CNN's Ben Wedeman, have entered Libya without permission.
