Lucas Jackson / Reuters, file
U.S.
Navy safety swimmers stand on the deck of the Virginia class submarine
USS New Hampshire after it surfaced through thin ice during exercises
underneath ice in the Arctic Ocean north of Prudhoe Bay, Alaska March
19, 2011.
By The Associated Press
YOKOSUKA,
Japan -- To the world's military leaders, the debate over climate
change is long over. They are preparing for a new kind of Cold War in
the Arctic, anticipating that rising temperatures there will open up a
treasure trove of resources, long-dreamed-of sea lanes and a slew of
potential conflicts.
By Arctic standards, the region is already
buzzing with military activity, and experts believe that will increase
significantly in the years ahead.
Last month, Norway wrapped up one of the largest Arctic maneuvers
ever — Exercise Cold Response — with 16,300 troops from 14 countries
training on the ice for everything from high intensity warfare to terror
threats. Attesting to the harsh conditions, five Norwegian troops were
killed when their C-130 Hercules aircraft crashed near the summit of
Kebnekaise, Sweden's highest mountain.
The U.S., Canada and Denmark held major exercises two months ago, and
in an unprecedented move, the military chiefs of the seven main Arctic
powers — Canada, the U.S., Russia, Iceland, Denmark, Sweden and Finland —
are to gather at a Canadian military base in May to specifically
discuss regional security issues.
None of this means a shooting
war is likely at the North Pole any time soon. But as the number of
workers and ships increases in the High North to exploit oil and gas
reserves, so will the need for policing, border patrols and — if push
comes to shove — military muscle to enforce rival claims.
High stakes
The
U.S. Geological Survey estimates that 13 percent of the world's
undiscovered oil and 30 percent of its untapped natural gas is in the
Arctic.
Shipping lanes could be regularly open across the Arctic
by 2030 as rising temperatures continue to melt the sea ice, according
to a National Research Council analysis commissioned by the U.S. Navy
last year.
UK report analyzes risks of Arctic development
What
countries should do about climate change remains a heated political
debate. But that has not stopped north-looking militaries from moving
ahead with strategies that assume current trends will continue.
Russia,
Canada and the United States have the biggest stakes in the Arctic.
With its military budget stretched thin by Iraq, Afghanistan and more
pressing issues elsewhere, the United States has been something of a
reluctant northern power, though its nuclear-powered submarine fleet,
which can navigate for months underwater and below the ice cap, remains
second to none.
Lucas Jackson / Reuters, file
U.S.
Navy watch a display in the control room of the Virginia class
submarine USS New Hampshire as it surfaces during exercises underneath
ice in the Arctic Ocean north of Prudhoe Bay, Alaska March 20, 2011.
Russia
— one-third of which lies within the Arctic Circle — has been the most
aggressive in establishing itself as the emerging region's superpower.
Rob
Huebert, an associate political science professor at the University of
Calgary in Canada, said Russia has recovered enough from its economic
troubles of the 1990s to significantly rebuild its Arctic military
capabilities, which were a key to the overall Cold War strategy of the
Soviet Union, and has increased its bomber patrols and submarine
activity.
Huebert said that has in turn led other Arctic
countries — Norway, Denmark and Canada — to resume regional military
exercises that they had abandoned or cut back on after the Soviet
collapse. Even non-Arctic nations such as France have expressed interest
in deploying their militaries to the Arctic.
Some Himalayan glaciers are actually growing
"We
have an entire ocean region that had previously been closed to the
world now opening up," Huebert said. "There are numerous factors now
coming together that are mutually reinforcing themselves, causing a
buildup of military capabilities in the region. This is only going to
increase as time goes on."
Noting that the Arctic is warming
twice as fast as the rest of the globe, the U.S. Navy in 2009 announced a
beefed-up Arctic Roadmap by its own task force on climate change that
called for a three-stage strategy to increase readiness, build
cooperative relations with Arctic nations and identify areas of
potential conflict.
Climate forecasters eye 3 million years ago
"We
want to maintain our edge up there," said Cmdr. Ian Johnson, the
captain of the USS Connecticut, which is one of the U.S. Navy's most
Arctic-capable nuclear submarines and was deployed to the North Pole
last year. "Our interest in the Arctic has never really waned. It
remains very important."
US 'inadequately prepared'
But
the U.S. remains ill-equipped for large-scale Arctic missions,
according to a simulation conducted by the U.S. Naval War College. A
summary released last month found the Navy is "inadequately prepared to
conduct sustained maritime operations in the Arctic" because it lacks
ships able to operate in or near Arctic ice, support facilities and
adequate communications.
US sees record for warmest March -- and first quarter
The
findings indicate the Navy is entering a new realm in the Arctic," said
Walter Berbrick, a War College professor who participated in the
simulation. "Instead of other nations relying on the U.S. Navy for
capabilities and resources, sustained operations in the Arctic region
will require the Navy to rely on other nations for capabilities and
resources."
He added that although the U.S. nuclear submarine
fleet is a major asset, the Navy has severe gaps elsewhere — it doesn't
have any icebreakers, for example. The only one in operation belongs to
the Coast Guard. The U.S. is currently mulling whether to add more
icebreakers.
US: 56 coral species face extinction danger
Acknowledging
the need to keep apace in the Arctic, the United States is pouring
funds into figuring out what climate change will bring, and has been
working closely with the scientific community to calibrate its
response.
"The Navy seems to be very on board regarding the
reality of climate change and the especially large changes we are seeing
in the Arctic," said Mark C. Serreze, director of the National Snow and
Ice Data Center at the Cooperative Institute for Research in
Environmental Sciences University of Colorado. "There is already
considerable collaboration between the Navy and civilian scientists and I
see this collaboration growing in the future."
The most
immediate challenge may not be war — both military and commercial assets
are sparse enough to give all countries elbow room for a while — but
whether militaries can respond to a disaster.
Heather Conley,
director of the Europe program at the London-based Center for Strategic
and International Studies, said militaries probably will have to rescue
their own citizens in the Arctic before any confrontations arise there.
"Catastrophic
events, like a cruise ship suddenly sinking or an environmental
accident related to the region's oil and gas exploration, would have a
profound impact in the Arctic," she said. "The risk is not
militarization; it is the lack of capabilities while economic
development and human activity dramatically increases that is the real
risk."
