Fliers can expect higher airfares, fewer airlines, more fees, experts say
10 hrs.
A. Pawlowski
, NBC News contributor
Well, that didn't take long. Just four days into the new year,
United Airlines and its Star Alliance partner Air Canada have launched
the first attempted airfare increase of 2013.
The carriers are attempting to hike more than 1 million fares across their system,
reports Rick Seaney, airfare analyst and CEO of FareCompare.com. The increase is between $2 and $5 each way.
As
of Friday afternoon, Delta matched United's fares, and "there has been
minimal matching by American Airlines and US Airways," according to
FareCompare.
Uncertainty often looms large when
air travelers turn their calendars to January. Will airfares keep
climbing? What new fees will airlines come up with? Is merger mania
about to engulf more carriers?
Seaney and other air travel experts weighed in on the developments that may shape your flying experience in 2013.
Airfare trends
There
were seven attempted domestic airfare hikes in 2012 and that number
will likely grow slightly this year, which should raise ticket prices
about 7 percent or so, Seaney said.
But some
routes may see bargains. Expect Southwest Airlines to try to expand over
water, with Hawaii on the carrier’s radar, Seaney added. It may even
try to fly to parts of Canada, he predicted.
“As Southwest tries
to become more like a legacy airline, the legacy airlines are trying to
become more like Southwest. So it’s sort of a strange thing that’s going
on,” Seaney said.
International fares will still be expensive
because of fuel surcharges, but globetrotters may see some price breaks
if they depart from U.S. cities where foreign carriers are expanding
their service, said George Hobica, founder of Airfarewatchdog.com.
Turkish Airlines is starting to fly from Houston this spring and that’s
putting downward pressure on international airfares in that region,
Hobica said.
Possible merger between American Airlines and US Airways
All
of the travel experts who talked with NBC News said the merger – which
would reduce the number of U.S. legacy carriers to three – would likely
lead to higher airfares and cuts in capacity.
“It’s a bad
thing for travelers. Any time that competition is eroded, consumers
lose,” said Charlie Leocha, director of the Consumer Travel Alliance.
Still,
an announcement appears imminent. The board of directors of American's
parent company, AMR Corp., could vote on a merger with US Airways as
soon as next week,
NBCDFW.com reported.
The carrier declined to confirm whether a decision on the merger would be made then.
“We
can’t comment on the timeline or our board meeting, but we remain
committed in our efforts to secure the best outcome for our financial
stakeholders, our people and our customers,” American Airlines said in a
statement to NBC News.
If
American does merge with US Airways, expect fewer flights on
overlapping routes and be prepared for some computer hiccups – similar
to the
glitches that plagued United Airlines last year after its merger with Continental – when the carriers try to combine their systems.
But
travelers accruing frequent flier miles with either airline or those
who have earned elite status have nothing to worry about, said
FareCompare.com's Seaney.
“Typically, you see newly merged
airlines bending over backwards to make sure all their loyal customers
are taken care of,” Seaney said. “The last thing you want to do as a
merged airline is alienate your best customers. I would expect them to
offer more things than they normally would as opposed to cutting back.”
The next generation of fees
With
carriers demanding extra money for everything from early boarding to
on-board snacks, what else can they possibly charge for? Don’t
worry – the number crunchers are still coming up with new ideas.
“Every time we think that the airlines can’t think up a new fee, they surprise us,” Leocha said.
Travelers
will likely see a further push to self-service at the airport, so they
may be asked to check themselves in for their flight and if they don’t,
they’ll pay a fee, said Hobica.
Airlines could also introduce “disincentives” to talk with airline personnel at the airport, he added.
Another
trend is airlines offering fees in bundles – so you have the option of
buying a package deal of extra services rather than purchasing them
individually, Leocha said.
For example, American Airlines last month
introduced “choice” fares
that bundle extras such as early boarding, one checked bag and the
ability to change flights for flat fees that range from $68-$88.
The next step? Carriers will be taking those bundles and discounting them, Seaney said.
New round of passenger protections
Under
the latest proposal, the government would require that airline fees be
displayed through “all sale channels,” but last month, the Department of
Transportation
delayed action on addressing the issue from January to May.
“The
real battle now is about comparison shopping. Consumers love to
comparison shop, airlines hate it and they don’t want to give the
comparison shopping sites their bundles of fees,” Seaney said.
The
goal is to get the carriers to release their fees so that third-party
websites, such as Priceline and Travelocity, can display them in real
time and dynamically as they change, Leocha said. The debate over the
issue will take place this year, but he doesn’t expect any changes to be
implemented until 2014.
“Nothing moves quickly in Washington,”
Leocha said. “(Still,) this has been by far the most consumer friendly
Department of Transportation that we’ve ever had.”
A better flying experience
Can
it be true? Will you actually enjoy flying this year? Perhaps enjoy is a
strong word, but chances are you will see some improvements.
Airlines
are going to take delivery of a “boatload of new aircraft” and those
planes will have mood lighting, better breathing air, more legroom and
other creature comforts, Seaney noted.
“I think people will finally, for the first time in over a decade, have a little bit better flying experience,” he said.
Wi-Fi
will become prevalent on most flights, for a fee, Lisa Gill, senior
editor at Conde Nast Traveler, told TODAY. Also expect to see more
lie-flat beds in business class on long domestic flights, she said.