Electoral College Model Predicts Romney Will Win Even Bigger Than Previously Thought in 2012

• Posted on October 8, 2012 at 8:57am by Billy Hallowell
• Comments (116)

In August, TheBlaze told you about University of Colorado Professors Ken Bickers and Michael Berry and their highly-accurate Electoral College prediction model. As you may recall, Bickers and Berry, using their metrics, are able to retroactively predict every presidential win since 1980.
Their 2012 model made headlines two months ago because, despite polling, it found that Republican presidential candidate Romney would win 320 Electoral Votes, stealing the White House away from President Barack Obama. Now, an updated version of their study has come to the same conclusion — but it intensifies the numbers behind a predicted Romney win.
Despite the fact that polls still show a dead-heat race (Obama is currently at 48.2 percent, with Romney capturing 47.3 percent of likely voters in the most recent Real Clear Politics average), an updated election model shows an even larger gap between the Electoral College votes that Romney and Obama are projected to win. According to Bickers and Berry, the Republican challenger is projected to take 330 of the 558 votes, while Obama is expected to capture only 208 of them.

US Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney and his wife Ann. Photo Credit: AFP/Getty Images

With 270 as the major number needed for any candidate to win, this clearly shows Obama far from the mark, sending Romney — at least theoretically — to victory come November. While the model did not change, Bickers’ and Berry’s analysis is based on updated economic data, which clearly helped sway the projection even further in Romney’s favor.
The University of Colorado Boulder web site has more about how the model works:

While many election forecast models are based on the popular vote, the model developed by Bickers and Berry is based on the Electoral College and is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. They included economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia. [...]

The Bickers and Berry model includes both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors. The new analysis includes unemployment rates from August rather than May, and changes in per capita income from the end of June rather than March. It is the last update they will release before the election. [...]
In addition to state and national unemployment rates, the authors analyzed changes in personal income from the time of the prior presidential election. Research shows that these two factors affect the major parties differently: Voters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment rates, while Republicans are held more responsible for fluctuations in personal income.

“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers notes. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”

US President Barack Obama speaks during a campaign convert at the Nokia Theater on October 7, 2012 in Los Angeles. Obama is on a three-day trip during which he will campaign in California and Ohio as well as attend the establishment of the Cesar Chavez National Monument. Photo Credit: AFP/Getty Images

According to the prediction, Romney will carry New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. On the flip side, Obama will take Michigan and Nevada.
Of course, Bickers and Berry caution those wedded to the data. Despite being correct for the past eight elections, there are some factors worth noting. The model has an average error rate of five states and 28 Electoral College votes. Plus, states that are close may end up being impacted by unexpected factors not included in the model.
Now, let’s get back to that record of accuracy mentioned earlier in this piece. The state-based economic data used by the researchers has been available since 1980, according to the university’s web site. When the data is applied to past elections, retroactively, it correctly chooses all of the winners. Most notably, it even correctly estimated the 2000 outcome, when Al Gore won the popular vote, but George W. Bush won the Electoral College.
In the end, though, anything is possible. Slight and unexpected changes could turn the entire scenario on its head. Still, the model — considering its viability — is worth paying attention to.

Electoral College Model Predicts Romney Will Win Big in 2012 (And It’s Been Right Since 1980)

• Posted on August 23, 2012 at 10:13am by Mytheos Holt
• Comments (439)

University of Colorado Professors Ken Bickers and Michael Berry have quite a set of bragging rights up their sleeve – namely, they’ve devised a mathematical model of the Electoral College that has predicted every Presidential race correctly since Ronald Reagan won the Presidency in 1980.
And despite recent polls showing the presidential race deadlocked both nationally and in key swing states, Bickers and Berry’s model shows a race that isn’t even close. According to them, not only will Mitt Romney win, but he will win big, taking 320 Electoral Votes to President Obama’s 218 – a result almost as decisive as President Obama’s win against Senator John McCain in 2008.

Berry and Bicker's prediction, generated by 270towin

The Huffington Post explains how the model works:

To predict the race’s outcome, the model uses economic indicators from all 50 states and it shows 320 electoral votes for Romney and 218 for Obama, according to The Associated Press. The model also suggests that Romney will win every state currently considered a swing state which includes Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Colorado.[...]
Berry cautions that just because the model has worked in the past, doesn’t mean it will work this time. “As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict,” Berry said in a statement. Some of those factors include the timeframe of the current economic data used in the study (the data used was taken five months before the November election, but Berry and Bickers plan to update it with more current data come September) as well as tight races. States that are very close to a 50-50 split, the authors warn, can fall in an unexpected direction.

Even given the caveats near the end, this is encouraging news for supporters of Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, given that it shows a race where the raw economic data appears to favor a Republican win. Granted, the election is still months away, and given that Berry and Bickers plan to update their model later, this forecast could change.
However, if things stay as they are economically, President Obama could be in for a rout come November.