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Wednesday, September 26, 2012



Florida senate poll, Sept. 19 to 23

Wednesday, September 26, 7:36 AM

 WASHINGTON POST FLORIDA POLL, SEPT. 19-23, 2012 

In this poll:

Democrat Bill Nelson leads Republican Connie Mack in the Florida senate race.

Poll Questions

Q: (AMONG LIKELY VOTERS) If the 2012 election for the U.S. Senate were being held today, would you vote for (Bill Nelson, the Democrat) or (Connie Mack, the Republican)?

NELSON
MACK
No opinion
54
%
40

Q: (AMONG FLORIDA REGISTERED VOTERS) If the 2012 election for the U.S. Senate were being held today, would you vote for(Bill Nelson, the Democrat) or (Connie Mack, the Republican)?

NELSON
MACK
No opinion
54
%
36

Q: (AMONG NELSON OR MACK SUPPORTERS) Will you definitely vote for (NELSON/MACK), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for (CANDIDATE NOT NAMED)?

Definitely vote
77
%
Chance change mind, GOOD CHANCE
8
Chance change mind, PRETTY UNLIKELY
12
No opinion
3

Q: (AMONG NELSON SUPPORTERS) Nelson Support Definitely/Good chance change mind/unlikely change mind NET

Definitely vote
79
%
Good chance change mind
7
Unlikely change mind
10
No opinion
4

Q: (AMONG MACK SUPPORTERS)Mack Support Definitely/Good chance change mind/unlikely change mind NET

Definitely vote
75
%
Good chance change mind
9
Unlikely change mind
13
No opinion
3

Q: (Asked of Nelson supporters) Thinking about his candidacy for U.S. Senate so far, how enthusiastic are you about (Ben Nelson)?

Very enthusiastic
33
%
Fairly enthusiastic
53
Not too enthusiastic
9
Not enthusiastic at all
5
No opinion
*

Q: (Asked of Mack supporters) Thinking about his candidacy for U.S. Senate so far, how enthusiastic are you about (Connie Mack)?

Very enthusiastic
30
%
Fairly enthusiastic
51
Not too enthusiastic
15
Not enthusiastic at all
4
No opinion
1

Q: (AMONG FLORIDA REGISTERED VOTERS) Again thinking ahead to U.S. Senate race in Florida, what is the single most important issue in your vote between Mack and Nelson?

Economy
23
%
Jobs/unemployment
8
Health care/Obamacare
4
Beating Romney/re-electing Obama/Supporting the Democrats
4
Medicare
3
Education
4
Beating Obama/electing Romney/Supporting the Republicans
3
Immigration/illegal immigration
2
Ethics/honesty/corruption in government
1
Taxes
3
Federal budget deficit
1
Housing/mortgages
1
State budget deficit
1
Change
1
Morals/family values
1
Gay marriage
1
Other
17
No opinion
22

Q: (AMONG FLORIDA REGISTERED VOTERS) Bill Nelson. Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression?

FAVORABLE
UNFAVORABLE
No opinion
55
%
30

Q: (AMONG FLORIDA REGISTERED VOTERS) Connie Mack. Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression?

FAVORABLE
UNFAVORABLE
No opinion
39
%
43

Q: Will one reason for your vote for U.S. Senate be to express (support for) President Obama, to express (opposition to) Obama, or is Obama not a factor in your choice? (Among registered voters)

Support for Obama
28
%
Opposition to Obama
17
Obama not a factor
53
No opinion
2

Washington Post poll: Sen. Bill Nelson leads Connie Mack by 14 in Florida

Posted by Aaron Blake on September 25, 2012 at 1:44 pm
Democrats’ hopes of holding on to their Senate seat in Florida appear to be looking up, witha new Washington Post poll showing Sen. Bill Nelson (D) holding a 14-point lead on Rep. Connie Mack (R) among likely voters, 54 percent to 40 percent.

Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.). (Ricky Carioti -The Washington Post)
Nelson, who also leads by 18 points among registered voters, holds a strong edge among basically all the key swing demographics, including among independents (55-37), moderates (65-25) and in the Tampa Bay (56-41) area of the crucial Interstate-4 corridor. At the other end of the corridor near Orlando, Nelson is at 49 percent, while Mack is at 43 percent — a margin that is within the margin of error.
Nelson also wins more Republicans (15 percent) and voters who chose Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in the 2008 presidential race (18 percent) than Mack wins among Democrats (4 percent) and 2008 supporters of President Obama (11 percent).
The poll is the latest showing of a key Senate race that is trending toward Democrats.
While Mack was able to close the gap during the summer and even led in some polls, four polls this month have shown Nelson building a double-digit lead: an automated SurveyUSA poll, an NBC News/Marist College poll, a Fox News poll and, last week, a Mason-Dixon poll that had Nelson leading 48 percent to 40 percent.
Democrats have also made gains in close races in Massachusetts, Virginia and Wisconsin. And in another Washington Post poll today, Democrats were asserting a double-digit lead in Ohio.
But whatever shift has happened in the national electoral counting, the poll of Florida suggests that the shift in that state is more about the two candidates. Nelson has strong numbers at 55 percent favorable and 33 percent unfavorable, but Mack is underwater at 41 percent favorable and 45 percent unfavorable.
Nelson, like Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, has long been considered a second-tier GOP target this cycle. Though Florida is a swing state, Republicans continue to have problems recruiting strong candidates against the two-term senator.
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