A NewGuide to the Democratic Herd

Since Barack Obama’s 2008 victory, Democrats have watched with dismay as the president has been vilified by opponents and as Washington, already polarized, has become downright toxic. (Republicans have their own ideas about when the polarization began.)

What had been a complicated patchwork of Democratic voting blocs before Obama has coalesced into fewer groups that are more unified. They’re not exactly moving in lock step — they never do — but their allegiance to the president has softened the usual party divisions.

His embrace of gay marriage is instructive: it was a galvanizing moment for supporters, and it didn’t seem to hurt him with the large blocs of Democrats who are socially conservative.

The 2012 Democratic herd is charted here along a left-to-right continuum of party loyalty, based chiefly on the Pew Research Center’s Political Typology as well as the views of political experts. The size of the donkey icons approximates the relative strength of each bloc.

Pew’s tracking of party affiliation shows that a growing number of Americans identify as independent. With party loyalists on both sides largely decided, “the race will move at the margins,” said Tad Devine, a longtime Democratic consultant. That’s why the campaigns are focused on identity groups: women, Latinos, older voters. Peeling off even slivers of these could well determine who wins the election.

Staunch Liberals

One of the two biggest blocs and the party’s most loyal voters, from students, academics and bloggers to Hollywood icons. The activist subset grew with the vocal addition of the Occupy movement, fueled by disgust with inequality and a system seen as unfairly tilted toward the wealthy.

MOTIVATING ISSUES

· Inequality.

· Protect the environment.

· Expand the safety net.

· Abortion rights.

· Pro-gay marriage.

· Pro-immigrants.

· Pro-renewable energy.

· Cut defense spending.

· Gun control.

STANDARD BEARER

Elizabeth Warren is a rock star for championing consumer protections and taking on the finance industry.

Blue Collar Bloc

The other big bedrock wing. They’re beaten down and pessimistic — half make less than $30,000 — with the highest unemployment of all blocs. They blame both government neglect and Wall Street greed. But many also see immigrants as competition for work — a major fault line within the party. Religious and socially conservative (for Democrats).

MOTIVATING ISSUES

· The economy.

· Expand safety net.

· Big business doesn’t care about the little guy; nor does government.

·  Limit immigration.

· Anti-corporate welfare.

STANDARD BEARERS

Joe Biden, Sherrod Brown.

Bootstrap Optimists

A growing majority-minority bloc: roughly equal parts African-American, Hispanic and white; many immigrants and children of immigrants. Though largely low-income and financially stressed — about half make less than $30,000 — they believe hard work will get them ahead. Religious and socially conservative.

MOTIVATING ISSUES

· The economy.

· Protect safety net.

· Pro-immigration.

· Gun control.

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STANDARD BEARERS

Julián Castro, Cory Booker.

Younger Independents

This smaller group only leans Democratic. They’re prosperous, mostly white and liberal (though notably not on entitlements and affirmative action). About one-third are under age 30; nearly as many have no religious affiliation. Half live either in the Northeast or in the West.

MOTIVATING ISSUES

· Protect the environment.

· Pro-abortion rights.

· Pro-gay marriage.

· Pro-immigrants.

· Pro-renewable energy.

· Cut defense spending.

· Prefer a smaller federal government that provides fewer services.

STANDARD BEARERS

None, as few younger politicians make the national stage. But Stephen Colbert and Jon Stewart are beacons.

  

Southern and Rural Democrats

A small, shrinking remnant of what used to be a mainstay of the party. Religious and socially conservative; they feel ignored by elites. They’re open to compromise, and they’ve been known to vote Republican. Religious and socially conservative.

MOTIVATING ISSUES

· The economy.

· Drill, mine and frack: they favor energy development over environmental protection.

· Pro-defense spending.

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STANDARD BEARER

Joe Manchin.

By BILL MARSH, GRAHAM ROBERTS, XAQUIN G.V. and ARCHIE TSE