Polls Underline Stubborn Splits in 3 Key States

 

I honestly believe that criminals can get guns no matter where or when or how.
Phyllis Everitt, 65, of Aurora, Colo., a retired high school teacher who plans to vote for Mitt Romney.

 

There has been no relief from this incredible unemployment and its effect on our community.
Grayson Markowitz, 58, of Luray, Va., an appliance dealer and a Romney supporter.

 

I think the Republicans support the high earners with mammoth investments.
Loretta Freiling, 83, of Madison, Wis., a retired administrator at the University of Wisconsin and a lifelong Democrat.

 

When Obama got elected, he got elected on zero experience. He never created a job.
Scott Coble, 36, of Denver, a machine operator for a steel supply company and an independent voter who favors Romney

 

Nobody is working with Obama and I don’t think that is due to anything he has done. They are stonewalling him.
Kelly Good-Singleton, 46, of Waynesboro Va., a human resources manager and an independent who plans to vote for Mr. Obama.

 

I am terribly concerned about debt, at every level — state, national, and even in Europe.
Larry Clift, 79, of Milton, Wis., a semiretired farmer and an independent who plans to vote for Mr. Romney.

 

I don’t agree with everything, but Obama has certainly come forward with ideas that are worth trying. I haven’t heard anything from the other side except ways to try to stop him. 
Shawn Rolingher, 44, of Golden, Colo., a physician assistant and an independent who plans to vote for Mr. Obama.

By JIM RUTENBERG and ALLISON KOPICKI

Published: August 8, 2012 604 Comments

For all of the Democratic attacks painting Mitt Romney as an out-of-touch elitist who will help the rich at the expense of the middle class, he is maintaining the traditional — and sizable — Republican advantage among a politically vital constituency, white working-class voters in the states most likely to decide the presidential election.

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Swing State Polls

• DOCUMENT: Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS Poll on Swing States

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Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory

And despite Republican efforts to use the weak economy to drive a wedge between President Obama and women on Election Day, the president is holding on to their crucial support in most battleground states.

Those findings, contained in the latest batch of Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News swing state polls, highlight the stubborn divisions of this year’s presidential race among two of the most important voting groups in the most hotly contested states.

But they also help explain the intense efforts of the two campaigns to alter the balance in both groups, which together will go a long way toward determining the outcome.

Mr. Obama’s goal is to keep Mr. Romney from running up huge margins among white working-class voters — defined as those without college degrees and with household incomes of $30,000 to $100,000 — who could give him the edge.

New results from surveys over the past week in Colorado, Virginia and Wisconsin, combined with surveys last week in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, show that Mr. Romney so far appears to be holding his own with that group, but running no stronger than Senator John McCain did four years ago.

Similarly, Mr. Romney is trying to peel off as many female voters as possible from Mr. Obama’s electoral coalition, hoping to offset the president’s advantages among single and nonwhite women by appealing to married and white women with a message about economic security and pocketbook issues.

But while the poll suggests that Mr. Romney is making inroads among women in Colorado, where he is also showing strength against Mr. Obama by several other measures, support for Mr. Obama among women has otherwise held up in the battleground states. As a result, Mr. Obama has so far been able to stave off bigger losses in the most hotly contested states, in particular among independents, who are divided in Colorado and Wisconsin and supporting Mr. Romney in Virginia, and white men, who are supporting Mr. Romney by double digits over the president in all three states.

Far more than national polls, which can track the mood of the electorate only as a whole, the results in the state-by-state polls provide a detailed snapshot of the race where it matters most, in geography and demography. They also help explain why both the Obama and Romney campaigns are focusing so much of their time and money on messages intended to resonate with such specific groups in such specific places.

The latest polls underscore just how tight the race continues to be, with the candidates running closely in Virginia and Colorado and Mr. Obama leading in Wisconsin, though not by his double-digit margin of victory in 2008. Mr. Obama won all three states in 2008.

Mr. Obama is struggling because of the economy and facing new challenges in Colorado, where his support among white men has fallen considerably from where it was in exit polls there in 2008.

But Mr. Romney is also struggling to connect with middle-class voters. And about half of voters in each of the three states said presidential candidates should release several years of tax returns. (Mr. Romney has so far declined to release more than two years of returns amid calls by Democrats and even Republicans for more.)

Combined with the surveys last week in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, the new state polls paint a portrait of an electorate that has largely made up its mind but sees both candidates as having vulnerabilities — giving each side opportunities to exploit.

In all three states, more voters said that Mr. Obama’s policies would hurt their personal finances if he were elected to a second term than said they would help.

Mr. Romney is running ads in Virginia and Colorado featuring the owner of a metal fabricating business who asserts Mr. Obama is undermining him; the campaign has named his coming bus tour “The Romney Plan for a Stronger Middle Class.”

Intent on holding support among women, Mr. Obama is showing commercials calling Mr. Romney both “out of touch” on women’s health and a threat to abortion rights; on Monday, Mr. Obama called Mr. Romney “Romney Hood,” saying his tax plans would take from the middle class to give to the rich.

Still, in Wisconsin, Mr. Romney led Mr. Obama by 14 percentage points among white voters who did not graduate from college and have household incomes of $30,000 to $100,000; he led by 15 percentage points among these voters in Colorado and by 31 percentage points in Virginia.

But more voters over all in the three states said Mr. Obama cares about their needs and problems than said the same about Mr. Romney.

“Romney seems to be in touch only with the ultra-wealthy,” said Deb Bracken, of Broomfield, Colo., a registered nurse who identified herself in a follow-up interview as an independent voter. “And at least Obama has a clue about women’s issues.”

Mr. Obama led among women by 8 points in Colorado, by 14 points in Virginia and by 23 points in Wisconsin. But nearly 4 in 10 voters in each state said the national economy was getting worse.

“There are a lot of things that Obama did that I don’t agree with, like the bailouts,” said Kelly Blankenship, 27, a logger from Dublin, Va., who said he was an independent voter. “My job is another reason I don’t care for him. The timber company I work for lost a lot of jobs because of the green initiative.”

Even as Mr. Obama lagged among men like Mr. Blankenship in Virginia, the Quinnipiac/Times/CBS News poll found a four-point edge for him in the state. That was within the poll’s margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points on each candidate.

Mr. Romney holds a five-point advantage in Colorado, also within the poll’s margin of sampling error. Mr. Obama’s lead in Wisconsin of 6 percentage points was statistically significant, though he won the state by roughly 14 percentage points in 2008.

In all three states — as well as in Pennsylvania and Ohio in last week’s Quinnipiac/Times/CBS News polls — women said Mr. Obama would do a better job than Mr. Romney would on health care. White working-class voters in all six states surveyed in the last two sets of polls said they believed Mr. Romney would do a better job on the economy.

“Romney has experience in running a big business, and the country is definitely a big business,” said Scott Coble of Denver, a machine operator in a steel supply company and an independent.

Marina Stefan and Marjorie Connelly contributed reporting.