Top 3 reasons why Al Qaeda is more dangerous than ever

True, it may be the one-year anniversary of Osama bin Laden’s death, but though US officials emphasize that the terrorist organization he led has been routed, defense analysts say that there are plenty of reasons to think that a resurgence of the perniciously resourceful Al Qaeda is not out of the question.

---

By Anna Mulrine, Staff writer
posted May 1, 2012 at 3:08 pm EDT

1.Al Qaeda's new leader is good at what he does

Osama bin Laden (l.) sits with his adviser Ayman al-Zawahiri in this file photo.
(Hamid Mir/REUTERS/File)

When it was clear that Ayman al-Zawahiri would take the helm of Al Qaeda after the death of Mr. bin Laden, US officials reported that they were pleased – elated, some emphasized – about the choice. He was an irritable micromanager without the “peculiar charisma” of bin Laden, as defense officials described him. What’s more, bin Laden was “more operationally engaged” than Mr. Zawahiri had ever shown any interest in being.
Robert Cardillo, deputy director for intelligence integration with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, said this week that Zawahiri does not have the charisma to appeal to new recruits. Even his own fighters complain that he simply attached himself to a rising star within the organization and rode his coattails to the top, US intelligence officials add.
But that sort of mercenary approach can have practical advantages. In the internal debate about whether Al Qaeda should maintain a strict, ideological litmus test for members or bring as many fighters into the tent as possible, Zawahiri is a firm member of the later camp, which could ultimately translate into more followers, analysts note.
“He may not be bin Laden in his operational expertise, but the affiliates have all sworn allegiance to him,” says Seth Jones, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corp. and author of "Hunting in the Shadows: The Pursuit of Al Qa’ida Since 9/11."
And though Zawahiri lacks the “suave” operating style bin Laden is universally acknowledged to have possessed, he was instrumental in the “mergers and acquisition strategy” to bring Al Shabaab, the Somali terrorist group, officially under the Al Qaeda affiliate umbrella in February, Mr. Jones notes.
Most important, “He has survived – and has been surviving for decades,” he adds. “I think it’s definitely an open question whether we’re in danger of underestimating him.

2.Al Qaeda also sees the Arab Spring as an opportunity

A policeman patrols a market in central Timbuktu in this December 2009 file photo. The fabled city in the Sahel region of northern Mali has become a stronghold for a franchise of Al Qaeda.
(REUTERS/Tim Gaynor)

Just as US officials celebrated the Arab Spring, Al Qaeda may have been doing the same thing. The uprisings in countries including Egypt, Libya, and Yemen may have overthrown longtime dictators, but they opened up power vacuums, too.
Libya, for example, is now rife with various militia forces, and, as a result, the government is not particularly strong. “There are notable concerns about Al Qaeda pushing some fighters into Libya,” Jones says.
In Egypt, Zawahiri’s brother was recently released from jail, fueling concerns about a growing Salafist, or puritanical, movement within the country, he adds.
“The unrest and reduced security provides terrorists inspired by that movement more operating space as security services focus more on internal security and regime stability,” Mr. Cardillo says.
The United States and other western countries have already lost some of the gains of the Arab Spring movement. The French, for example, are deeply concerned about what they see as a growing conservative Islamist movement in North Africa. Following the overthrow of the government in Mali, there are indications that members of the Nigerian terrorist organization Boko Haram are opening training camps that are teaching followers the finer points of improvised explosive device, or IED, construction, Jones says.
The question is whether US Special Operations Force trainers, perhaps working in conjunction with NATO allies, can help offset some of these Al Qaeda initiatives, he adds.
In Somalia, where the government has largely collapsed, “It will be a balancing act between what the Pentagon can do with small numbers of Special Ops teams, training local forces, working with CIA units on the ground, and encouraging local countries and neighbors to be active” in countering terrorist groups with their own forces as well, Jones says.
The good news is that “core Al Qaeda and the jihadist movement will suffer a strategic setback in that the Arab Spring strikes at the very core of their jihadist narrative,” Cardillo noted. That said, he added, “prolonged instability or unmet promises by these new governments ... would give Al Qaeda, its affiliates, and its allies more time to establish networks, gain support, and potentially engage in operations.”

3.Afghanistan is still an Al Qaeda safe haven

US soldiers walk to pass a makeshift bridge on a patrol in Parun, the capital of Nuristan province, east of Kabul, Afghanistan, in this July 2008 file photo. Nuristan and the province of Kunar are areas in Afghanistan where Al Qaeda groups may be gaining ground.
(AP Photo)

The aim of America’s war in Afghanistan was to make sure that the country was never again used as a safe haven from which terrorist groups might launch attacks on the US or its interests around the world. But a decade later, there are areas in northeastern Afghanistan, including the tough mountainous provinces of Nuristan and Kunar, where Al Qaeda groups are once again “establishing a foothold,” Jones says.
As the US prepares to end its combat role in the country by 2014 – and Pakistan continues to push for an end to drone strikes that have targeted top Al Qaeda leadership in its ungoverned tribal regions – the pressure on the terrorist organization is waning. “The growing concern I have is that as we cede control of more territory, Al Qaeda can use that territory for a resurgence,” Jones adds.
Indeed, after each wave of US successes against Al Qaeda – in western Anbar Province in Iraq, following the Sunni uprising, for example – “there have been predictions that Al Qaeda is largely dead,” Jones says. At the moment, however, as the Pentagon shifts its strategy towards Asia and, concurrently, prepares to send US Marines to bases in northern Australia, while pulling them out of southern Afghanistan, the US military is “in a bit of a bind,” he adds.
The solution may be working with tribal leaders through “village stability operation” teams of US Special Forces partnered with Afghan forces. “You don’t need large numbers of Special Operations Forces,” Jones says. “Just enough forces to maintain some influence on the ground – I think that’s frankly our best shot.”