Lessons learned from inmate's challenge to Obama in W.Va.
9
May
2012
12:49pm, EDT
This image provided by Keith R. Judd shows the federal prisoner Keith Russell Judd, 49, at the Beaumont Federal Correctional Institution in Beaumont, Texas in this March 15, 2008 file photo.
The name of the federal prisoner -- Keith Judd -- who won 41 percent of the vote versus President Barack Obama in Tuesday's West Virginia Democratic primary isn't as important as the fact that the incumbent commander in chief won only 59 percent of the vote.
Republicans have giddily seized on Obama's relatively poor showing in the primary as an indicator of weakness. Though, it's notable that Obama has never performed particularly well in West Virginia, and he's not expected to carry the state versus Mitt Romney in the general election.
Even in a Democratic wave year, Republican John McCain beat Obama in West Virginia by a 13-point margin. And in the Democratic primary that same year, even though the race for the nomination appeared virtually over, Hillary Clinton crushed Obama, 67 percent to 26 percent.
While West Virginia traditionally elects Democrats to statewide office, it is culturally conservative. West Virginia’s relatively poor residents rely heavily on pork projects from the government, as well as programs like Medicare and Medicaid. (A recent USA Today analysis found that West Virginia gets 28 percent of its income from government programs, more than any other state. Also, its population is second oldest in the nation, behind Florida.)
Even though many of those factors would seem to point toward support for Obama, the president has just simply never been popular there. One of the few areas in 2008 where McCain improved over past elections was Appalachia, an area that overlaps heavily with West Virginia's population.
But is there a cautionary tale for Democrats in the somewhat amusing scare led by Judd, who's serving a 17-and-a-half-year federal prison sentence in Texas after being convicted of making threats at the University of New Mexico?
The peculiar Obama effect in West Virginia has been apparent in the actions of the state's junior senator, Democrat Joe Manchin. A former governor of the state, Manchin tacked well to the right in his bid for the seat of the late Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd in 2010.
The Morning Joe panel discusses federal prison inmate Keith Judd -- who received 41 percent of the vote in West Virginia's Democratic primary.
So blunt were Manchin's efforts to distance himself from Obama that he released a TV ad that cycle showing him shooting a copy of the president's signature health care law.Even though he won the 2010 election, he's been a thorn in Obama's side since joining the Senate, accusing him of failing to lead the charge on cutting spending last year. In a statement last month, Manchin said, “I have some real differences with both Gov. Romney and the president, as I have said many times."
But because Manchin won his seat in a special election, he must run for a full term again this November.
"Stimulus deficit spending? Manchin is your man. The Obama agenda? Joe is on board more than 85 percent of the time," John Raese, Manchin's Republican opponent in 2010 who's challenging the senator again this fall, wrote Wednesday in the Charleston Gazette.
Democratic West Virginia Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin has also been coy about whether he'll even vote for Obama this fall. ("His policies will put more burdens on West Virginia families who are simply trying to make ends meet," he said earlier this month.)
But Republicans have also targeted longtime Democratic Rep. Nick Rahall, who's been more vocal about his support for Obama.
"Obama losing six counties in the 3rd District to a Texas prison inmate is the canary in the coal mine that Rahall’s 36-year career in Congress is coming to an end," said Nat Sillin, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, in a statement.
There are plenty of other examples of instances in which Democratic candidates have sought to manage the extent to which they're tied to Obama. Republicans in some states have also had to wrestle with being tied to Romney.
According to a Democratic strategist familiar with the party's Senate campaign efforts, this is isn't atypical behavior. "I don't know that it changes all that much from one state to another. When our candidates agree, say so. When they disagree, say so."
Against Obama, even a jailbird gets some votes
This image provided by Keith R. Judd shows the federal prisoner Keith Russell Judd, 49, at the Beaumont Federal Correctional Institution in Beaumont, Texas in this March 15, 2008 file photo.
The inmate, Keith Judd, is serving time at the Beaumont Federal Correctional Institution in Texas for making threats at the University of New Mexico in 1999. Obama received 59 percent of the vote to Judd's 41 percent.
For some West Virginia Democrats, simply running against Obama is enough to get Judd votes.
"I voted against Obama," said Ronnie Brown, a 43-year-old electrician from Cross Lanes who called himself a conservative Democrat. "I don't like him. He didn't carry the state before, and I'm not going to let him carry it again."
When asked which presidential candidate he voted for, Brown said, "That guy out of Texas."
Keith Judd, a Texas convicted felon, won over 40 percent of the vote in West Virginia's Democratic primary election on Tuesday, beating out President Obama. MSNBC host Chris Matthews joins NOW with Alex Wagner to discuss the unlikely election outcome.
Judd was able to get on the state ballot by paying a $2,500 fee and filing a form known as a notarized certification of announcement, said Jake Glance, a spokesman for the secretary of state's office.Attracting at least 15 percent of the vote would normally qualify a candidate for a delegate to the Democratic National Convention. But state Democratic Party Executive Director Derek Scarbro said no one has filed to be a delegate for Judd. The state party also believes that Judd has failed to file paperwork required of presidential candidates, but officials continue to research the matter, Scarbro said.
Voters in other conservative states showed their displeasure with Obama in Democratic primaries last March.
In Oklahoma, anti-abortion protester Randall Terry got 18 percent of the primary vote. A lawyer from Tennessee, John Wolfe, pulled nearly 18,000 votes in the Louisiana primary. In Alabama, 18 percent of Democratic voters chose "uncommitted" in the primary rather than vote for Obama.
Obama's energy policies and the Environmental Protection Agency's handling of mining-related permits have incurred the wrath of West Virginia's coal industry. With the state the nation's second-biggest producer of this fossil fuel, Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin and Sen. Joe Manchin —both Democrats have championed the industry — have declined to say whether they will support Obama in November.
Hillary Rodham Clinton beat Obama handily in the state's 2008 primary, and he lost the state to Republican John McCain in the general election. The latest state-by-state Gallup poll, released in January, found Obama with a 32.7 percent approval rating in West Virginia. The president had a lower approval rating only in Utah, Idaho, Oklahoma and Wyoming.
"Keith Judd's performance is embarrassing for Obama and our great state," outgoing West Virginia GOP Chairman Mike Stuart said.
Presumed Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney won West Virginia's GOP primary Tuesday with more than 69 percent of the vote, with 93 percent of precincts reporting. Rick Santorum followed with 12 percent, while Ron Paul had 11 percent.
Brown, the Cross Lanes electrician, went to the polls Tuesday with his 22-year-old daughter, Emily. She planned to vote for Judd, too, until she found out where Judd has been living.
"I'm not voting for somebody who's in prison," she said.
She was certain about one thing: "I just want to vote against Barack Obama."
1758comments
No comments:
Post a Comment