Republicans should realize they are winning the debate.
House Republican leaders and the White House are nearing a deal to finally close the books on the 2011 budget—six months into the fiscal year. The White House says it will accept spending cuts of $33 billion, compared to the $62 billion the House passed earlier this year. If House Speaker John Boehner can bring that number closer to $40 billion, so much the better.
We share the desire of new Members in Congress who want deeper reductions. But Republicans don't hold the Senate or the White House, and even cuts of this magnitude are bigger than anyone could have expected last December. Republicans and tea partiers should pocket the victory and move on to the bigger fights over the 2012 budget and debt ceiling.
The fact that Congress is cutting any spending from the $3.6 trillion budget is a big cultural shift in Washington and an important course correction. In 2008, domestic discretionary spending rose by roughly 8%. The budget for federal agencies then expanded another 24% over 2009 and 2010, not including the $270 billion of stimulus funds for these programs. By contrast, the $10 billion in cuts that Republicans have already won for fiscal 2011 will reduce spending by roughly 1%, and 3% if a $33 billion compromise becomes law.
This has accomplished two valuable goals. First, Republicans have succeeded in preventing the stimulus funding in 2009 and 2010 for discretionary programs from becoming a permanent part of the federal baseline of spending, which was a major goal of unions and liberal Democrats.
Second, because this budget permanently reduces the spending baseline for all future agency expenditures, over the next decade $33 billion savings will grow to about $400 billion. Now we're talking real money.
Democrats grouse that even this is too much to cut from discretionary accounts in one year, especially when the big money is in such entitlement accounts as Medicare and Medicaid. But this is a political bait and switch, since these same Democrats will oppose any entitlement reforms when House Republicans put those on the table next week. It's a shame that some conservatives also fall for the line that the only cuts that matter are in entitlements. When federal spending reaches 25% of GDP, taxpayers should take every cut they can get.
Republicans now need to insist that the cuts come from domestic agencies, rather than from defense or national security. Another danger is that the White House will use the accounting trick of cutting from the "unobligated balances" of programs that wouldn't have spent that money anyway. We hear that Speaker Boehner has told the White House that Republicans will submit their list of $62 billion in specific savings that have already passed the House, and Democrats can pick the cuts they want from that list. That sounds reasonable.
A deal like this would prevent a government shutdown—at least for now—which could jeopardize the GOP's ability to win future budget fights that are more consequential. Next week, House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan will release his fiscal 2012 budget, which we are told will contain more than $2 trillion in savings over the next decade. He'll propose much-needed reforms in Medicare and Medicaid, as well as reductions in funding to implement ObamaCare, which would add 30 million more Americans to the government health-care rolls.
Also looming is a vote to increase the debt ceiling. This is an opportunity for Republicans to explain to the public that it isn't enough merely to honor our national debts, as important as that is. It is also crucial to cut up Congress's credit card so we don't have to keep raising the debt limit again and again.
This ought to mean reforming the current budget process that Democrats rigged in 1974 to make it easier to raise spending and taxes. The "current services" baseline builds in inflated spending levels each year. The absence of a cap on entitlement spending puts double-digit increases on cruise control. Tax cuts to grow the economy are scored as budget busters. Republicans should insist on a rewrite of the budget process, including annual spending caps enforced by automatic cuts, in return for raising the debt limit.
We hope freshmen Republicans don't mistake this early budget compromise for Armageddon and refuse to vote for it. That could weaken the final deal by forcing GOP leaders to move left to get Democratic votes. Republicans are winning the spending debate because they have methodically kept their focus on spending issues rather than on extraneous policy riders. They shouldn't weaken themselves by splintering over an early skirmish, because they will need to be unified and determined for the bigger fights ahead.
No comments:
Post a Comment