March 04, 2011 11:30 AM
ABC's Dan Arnall reports:
Right on… that’s what folks should see in today’s widely-anticipated February Jobs report.
According to the latest government data, the nation added some 192,000 new jobs to the workforce during February, the best result since May ’10 when Census hiring was in full swing.
The nice thing about today’s results? The hiring seems to be coming from almost all sectors of the economy.
Economists were expecting about 189K new jobs last month. A nice bounce back from January’s ice-covered results that’s aligned with the general belief that the U.S. has started a steady, slow climb out of the hole of the Great Recession.
Upward revisions to both December and January’s results added about 58K to the previous totals, reinforcing the idea that the overall momentum in the jobs market is positive.
During the past year 1.3 million jobs have been added.
When one looks only at the private sector – factoring out gov’t hiring and firing, we’re seeing a consistent ramping in new hires, with some 1.5 million positions added in the past year.
The nation’s unemployment rate – the result of a separate but simultaneously released survey of households – was down by a tick to 8.9%. February marks the first month since April ’09 where we’ve seen the rate below 9%.
Many economists and folks on Wall Street have been doubting the steep drop in the unemployment rate which started in November (it was 9.8% back then), but today’s results should remove that doubt.
This translates into 13.7 million Americans who wanted to work last month but were unable to find work.
Several economists are now saying it’s highly unlikely the nation will see a double-digit unemployment rate again, unless something significant happens to derail the recovery. Low risk of a 10% headline.
Another bit of good news is the broader unemployment rate, the one which includes people who worked part-time, but wanted full-time work. It ticked down. This measure -- called the U-6 by the quant-set – now stands at 15.9% or 24.4 million. It’s the first time the U-6 rate has not been below 16% since April 2009.
While all this is good news, there’s certainly a cloud in this seeming blue sky for Jobs. The folks who have just given up or have been out of work for the long-term are still lacking confidence that this improvement is real.
“We have yet to see enough optimism in the job market for those who have become discouraged or marginally attached to the labor force to throw their hats back into the ring and look for jobs,” writes Diane Swonk, economist at Mesirow Financial. “This is particularly disturbing, given the extremely high number of workers who have been unemployed for more than six months, about six million, in addition to the rising ranks of unemployed workers who have used up their 99 weeks of unemployment insurance and are no longer eligible for extensions.”
We’ll likely need at least three-months of 200K+ months before we start seeing this entrenched pessimism start to dissipate.
During the month, hiring was broadly spread throughout most of the private sector. Here’s where the hiring and firing was happening during February:
-- Manufacturers (+33K) were hiring in February, continuing a trend that has added some 189K jobs in the past year.
According to the latest government data, the nation added some 192,000 new jobs to the workforce during February, the best result since May ’10 when Census hiring was in full swing.
The nice thing about today’s results? The hiring seems to be coming from almost all sectors of the economy.
Economists were expecting about 189K new jobs last month. A nice bounce back from January’s ice-covered results that’s aligned with the general belief that the U.S. has started a steady, slow climb out of the hole of the Great Recession.
Upward revisions to both December and January’s results added about 58K to the previous totals, reinforcing the idea that the overall momentum in the jobs market is positive.
During the past year 1.3 million jobs have been added.
When one looks only at the private sector – factoring out gov’t hiring and firing, we’re seeing a consistent ramping in new hires, with some 1.5 million positions added in the past year.
The nation’s unemployment rate – the result of a separate but simultaneously released survey of households – was down by a tick to 8.9%. February marks the first month since April ’09 where we’ve seen the rate below 9%.
Many economists and folks on Wall Street have been doubting the steep drop in the unemployment rate which started in November (it was 9.8% back then), but today’s results should remove that doubt.
This translates into 13.7 million Americans who wanted to work last month but were unable to find work.
Several economists are now saying it’s highly unlikely the nation will see a double-digit unemployment rate again, unless something significant happens to derail the recovery. Low risk of a 10% headline.
Another bit of good news is the broader unemployment rate, the one which includes people who worked part-time, but wanted full-time work. It ticked down. This measure -- called the U-6 by the quant-set – now stands at 15.9% or 24.4 million. It’s the first time the U-6 rate has not been below 16% since April 2009.
While all this is good news, there’s certainly a cloud in this seeming blue sky for Jobs. The folks who have just given up or have been out of work for the long-term are still lacking confidence that this improvement is real.
“We have yet to see enough optimism in the job market for those who have become discouraged or marginally attached to the labor force to throw their hats back into the ring and look for jobs,” writes Diane Swonk, economist at Mesirow Financial. “This is particularly disturbing, given the extremely high number of workers who have been unemployed for more than six months, about six million, in addition to the rising ranks of unemployed workers who have used up their 99 weeks of unemployment insurance and are no longer eligible for extensions.”
We’ll likely need at least three-months of 200K+ months before we start seeing this entrenched pessimism start to dissipate.
During the month, hiring was broadly spread throughout most of the private sector. Here’s where the hiring and firing was happening during February:
-- Manufacturers (+33K) were hiring in February, continuing a trend that has added some 189K jobs in the past year.
-- Construction firms (+33K) were hiring again as the industry bounced back from a January that was too wintry to allow building activity in much of the country.
-- Leisure & Hospitality (+21K) was up strong as consumers took the family out to eat – a first step into the spend as consumer confidence starts to eke out of its recession lows.
-- Retail (-8.1K) employment was little changed during February – actually a very good sign as we have seen big cutbacks in this sector the last few years during February as stores readjust their staffing after the holiday spending season.
-- The transportation sector (+22K) showed some strength in February, particularly in trucking (+11K) as the rebounding economy requires more workers to move stuff from here to there.
-- Financial firms (+3K) saw their staffing essentially unchanged. Though there was an uptick in hiring in the Real Estate (+7K) sub-sector as the volume of home sales has increased.
-- Health care (+34K) continued to add workers, significantly better than the average month (+22K) from the past year.
-- Temp positions (+16K) continued to add workers – this is a “canary” in the jobs coal mine as firms often add temp workers before adding full-time staff.
-- The Federal government (0K) was unchanged, but states (-12K)and city governments (-18K) were in cutting mode in February.
Overall, this is a good – not great – jobs report which hints that we’ve started to really turn the corner and could have a blossoming of jobs during the summer months.
But one thing to keep in mind, consumer spending and confidence are the key to continued jobs growth, and those things are directly threatened by gas price spikes like we’re seeing now.
If gas prices continue to increase rapidly, it’s possible that the consumer will cut back on other spending to compensate for increases in that part of their budget by slashing spending in other parts. The risks of a gas spike cooling the jobs market are real.
The next jobs report is scheduled to be released on April 1st.
But one thing to keep in mind, consumer spending and confidence are the key to continued jobs growth, and those things are directly threatened by gas price spikes like we’re seeing now.
If gas prices continue to increase rapidly, it’s possible that the consumer will cut back on other spending to compensate for increases in that part of their budget by slashing spending in other parts. The risks of a gas spike cooling the jobs market are real.
The next jobs report is scheduled to be released on April 1st.
March 4, 2011 in Dan Arnall
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