What might a government shutdown look like?

Posted at 6:00 AM ET, 02/17/2011

By Ed O'Keefe

(File photo: Nancy Andrews/Post)

Updated 2:48 p.m. ET
If President Obama and congressional Republicans fail to agree soon on how to fund the final seven months of the fiscal year, some veterans might not receive benefits checks and other Americans would be unable to apply for Social Security. The State Department might not issue new passports, unemployment statistics would not publish as scheduled, museums and national parks would close, and worse -- piles of elephant manure might pile up in a National Zoo parking lot because workers can't ship it away for composting.

Budget disagreements between Bill Clinton and Republicans prompted these incidents in 1995 and 1996, as federal agencies halted operations and stopped paying workers.

Over the course of more than 20 days, about 260,000 District-area federal employees stayed home, or reported for duty only to be sent packing hours later. Security guards roamed the halls forcing out workers who lingered and some frustrated feds sought temporary jobs as bike messengers and waitresses in order to pay holiday bills, according to Post reports from the time.

Agencies retroactively paid workers once the doors reopened, but many government contractors -- paid separately by private employers -- earned nothing during the shutdowns.

Obama and congressional leaders must strike a deal by March 4 in order to keep the government running. Failure to pass a bill could cause an immediate stop to a wide range of federal services.

Depending on the proposal, the GOP is hoping to cut $60 billion to $100 billion, in an effort to trim the deficit and make good on a midterm election pledge to cut government spending. The White House has vowed to veto such plans. Numerous tea party groups have called on lawmakers to force a government shutdown, if necessary, but GOP leadership has vowed not to go that far.

"The government isn't going to shut down," Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), the second-ranking Senate Republican, insisted Tuesday night. "Nobody is talking about shutting the government down."

Actually, they are, according to sources. Federal agencies are beginning to instruct senior officials to prepare for a possible shutdown, ordering the cancellation of vacations or other personal commitments, said officials not authorized to speak on the record.

Jacob J. Lew, director of the Office of Management and Budget, disputed those reports Thursday. "We're planning on reaching the kind of agreements that make it unnecessary to put the American people through a government shutdown. I don't want to either intentionally or unintentionally send any signals that we're planning to the contrary," he said at a luncheon hosted by the Christian Science Monitor.

At his press conference Tuesday, Obama also warned against suggestions of a shutdown. "This is not an abstraction," he said. "People don't get their Social Security checks. They don't get their veterans payments. Basic functions shut down. And it -- that, also, would have a adverse effect on our economic recovery."

"It is interesting to see this come up again," said Carol Bonosaro, president of the Senior Executives Association, which represents thousands of the government's career managers. "It seems the last shutdowns didn't leave a negative enough impression on Americans if lawmakers are entertaining the thought of them once again."

Some of Bonosaro's members reached Wednesday, who asked not to be identified, recalled awkwardly deciding in 1995 which "essential" employees could work through the impasse and which "non-essential" personnel had to go home.

"The main impact was a vast amount of work associated with building shutdown plans and determining exactly who was and wasn't essential, and all the morale issues associated with the fear of impending implementation of those plans," one SEA member said in an e-mail. "I worked hard to get as many as possible of our then-1,200 or so employees deemed essential as I could, and that helped with morale."

Even if non-essential workers wanted to work without pay, they could face fines of up to $5,000 or up to two years in prison for violating a federal law that prohibits agencies from accepting volunteer labor.

So how might it work this time? It obviously won't be quite the same, saidStan Collender, a longtime budget analyst.

"Instead of checks being mailed, they're now transferred electronically. But you've also got other things that didn't exist before like Homeland Security," he said. "There would have to be some reevaluation from last time. Those are big policy decisions. The next level down is to tell every agency to start preparing for a shutdown. Who gets to come in, who doesn't? What additional help do you need for security and computer systems?"

Stores and restaurants near federal buildings relying on daytime foot traffic would suffer and Metrorail revenues would plummet from lower ridership. It would be as if the movie industry shut down Hollywood, or if the auto industry temporarily closed shop in Detroit.

Government contracting firms are already mobilizing and preparing for potential disruptions, according to Stan Soloway, president of theProfessional Services Council, which represents hundreds of mid-sized contracting firms.

"We want our folks to be as prepared as possible," Soloway said. "That doesn't mean it's going to happen, but it's not outside the realm of possibility either, so we can't ignore it."

Calculating the potential savings from a shutdown are difficult, primarily because agencies historically pay back workers for time lost and might spend more to compensate for lost productivity, according to Post reports from the period.

Cities and states relying on federal funds would also have to spend unavailable cash. During the Nov. 1995 shutdown, the District of Columbia saved about $1.2 million daily by keeping some offices closed, but concurrently spent $4.4 million to cover the salaries of 26,000 employees normally paid with federal funds. At the same time, Maryland's state government spent $1.4 million a day to cover the salaries of 9,680 state workers also paid with federal dollars.

The president is given wide discretion to determine which agencies and programs continue operations during shutdowns, meaning many employees of the departments of Defense, Homeland Security, Justice,State and Veterans Affairs would keep working in order to keep national security and defense concerns running smoothly. In 1995, Clinton signed a special appropriations bill that kept 12,000 Agriculture Department workers on the job.

Other self-funding agencies would also open for business. The U.S. Mint, which finances its operations through a special fund, would still produce coins, and neither snow nor rain nor threat of shutdown would keep postal workers from their appointed rounds.

And even if the waste piles up in the parking lot, it's likely zoo workers would feed and care for the animals, just as they did the last time.

Researcher Lucy Shackelford contributed to this report.