By Barry Ritholtz - February 3rd, 2011, 8:40PM
The situation in Egypt continues to rivet news watchers. How might this end? What does this mean for the rest of region, for the concept of Democracy in the Mid-East, for other strongmen holding on to power, for the global economy, the price of Oil, and for stock markets?
Please write what you think is the most likely outcome, and vote for what you think is the highest probability outcome.
Please write what you think is the most likely outcome, and vote for what you think is the highest probability outcome.
How Will the Egypt Situation End?
Posted on 02/04/2011 | 13 votes | 8 comments
Given the turmoil in the Middle East, how is this likely to resolve itself? Peaceful transition, civil war, middle east implosion?
What say ye?
Peaceful transition Posted by ritholtz on 02/03/2011 08:46 PM |
not gonna happen. mubarak a no-go. no problem. egyptian military + cia have plan to assassinate him (imo, of course). -- morchocolat
Posted by morchocolat on 02/03/2011 09:01 PM
Peaceful IS possible.
Posted by Northern CA on 02/03/2011 10:08 PM
Sadly, probably status quo... some sort of bait and switch where Mubarak gets kicked out but replaced with some 'hope and change' military guy... A few months or years and the kettle will explode again. Of course, if they have grain shortages this year all my bets are off. Posted by svaha on 02/03/2011 08:47 PM |
Muslim Brotherhood or other Islamists eventually take over Egypt after a short post-Mubarak period during which the Islamists hide their true intentions and dupe westerners, and a minority of English-speaking liberals with almost no influence in Egypt get disproportionate attention in the western press. (See Iran, 1979.) Posted by ed on 02/03/2011 09:04 PM |
What does "civil war" mean in this context? I opt for retirement in Saudi Arabia by early next week, preceded by a few days of enhanced street theater (500 official deaths) before the Army takes the reins. Rafah will be opened and the Zionists will gin up a shit-storm. Ideally, we'll have a National Intelligence Estimate on continued policy of appeasement of Israel, one that will have teeth. Posted by PirateLaddie on 02/03/2011 10:21 PM |
Hosni will resign in favor of Suleiman, and Suleiman will keep cracking down on protestors for at least a few weeks. Posted by serge on 02/03/2011 10:03 PM |
The common denominator is the economy which is responsible for varying degrees of "unrest" in many areas. Over the near term, more "freedom" wont solve that problem and even if moderates take power, just as was the case in 1917 Russia, the extremists will eventually prevail, since none of the problems having to do with increased economic activity will have been solved Posted by Bill on 02/03/2011 09:40 PM |
A smoldering and systematic unwinding of authoritarian governments. Saudi Arabia will be transformed while Iraq will continue to be a toxic sandbox. Israel will have it's hands full. Posted by Nuggz on 02/03/2011 08:56 PM |
Civil War Posted by ritholtz on 02/03/2011 08:47 PM |
Is that your honest opinion or are you trying to stoke the conversation?
Posted by dgreenspan on 02/03/2011 08:58 PM
Don't see an answer you like? Suggest one of your own!
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