What to Watch for in Obama’s State of the Union

January 25, 2011, 7:22 am

By MICHAEL D. SHEAR

Drew Angerer/The New York Times President Obama at the White House on Tuesday.

12:53 p.m. | Updated President Obama will deliver a blueprint for economic recovery and American competitiveness on Tuesday night, as he tries to chart a two-year path to re-election in the face of newly empowered Republican adversaries.
In his first State of the Union address before a Congress under divided control, advisers say Mr. Obama will lay out his case for investment in education and infrastructure, while tempering his call for new initiatives with an acknowledgment of the country’s long-term fiscal challenges.
Aides said Tuesday that Mr. Obama will propose a five-year freeze on “non-security discretionary spending” though they did not disclose the details of that proposal in advance of the speech.
A White House official called the proposal “a down payment toward reducing the deficit” and said the president will “also will be looking for cuts and efficiencies. For instance, the President is putting forward a five-year plan developed by Secretary Gates to achieve $78 billion in defense savings.”
The move would be a step in the direction of some in Congress who have called for spending controls. But it would fall short of what House Republicans are calling for: a reduction in federal spending to 2008 levels.
Mr. Obama’s speech — the details of which have been held more closely than usual — offers the president an opportunity to redefine his administration at the start of the 2012 presidential campaign.
Mr. Obama has started to recover politically in the last few months by demonstrating a new willingness to engage in compromise with Republicans and by performing well in the wake of the Arizona shooting. Aides said that reality lowered the pressure on Mr. Obama to hit a grand slam Tuesday night.
But the stakes remain high for the president, who must find a way to re-energize his most ardent supporters, persuade independents to believe in him again and build a case against returning the White House to Republicans after four years.
Aides describe this year’s State of the Union address as a departure from the typical laundry list that is common with the yearly speech. Instead, the White House press secretary, Robert Gibbs, said Mr. Obama would focus most of his time on “the challenges that we face” financially in the short and long term.
What else will we hear? Here’s a brief rundown of what to look for:
—The spending clash. Mr. Obama’s aides have hinted for days that the president will call for a new wave of investment to spur job growth and keep the country competitive globally. But how much spending? And on what? How will he make the case in the face of Republican opposition to what they view as moving in exactly the wrong direction.
Among the unknowns Tuesday night is whether Mr. Obama will endorse specific provisions of his commission to reduce the nation’s debt, and how much he will say about the need to confront overhaul  of Social Security and Medicare. Doing neither will invite criticism of his commitment to the country’s long-term fiscal health.
—The tone. The elections last November caused Mr. Obama to adopt a more bipartisan tone during the lame-duck session of Congress. And the shooting in Arizona all but ensured that civility is essential. But Mr. Obama must also draw sharp policy contrasts with his rivals over the course of the next two years — a process that may begin in Tuesday’s speech.
—The seating arrangements. The idea was originally floated by Third Way, a centrist group with close ties to the Obama administration, and soon no politician could ignore it. Instead of sitting by party to listen to the speech, lawmakers will mix themselves up. The upshot? Those moments when Democrats stand to applaud and Republicans sit on their hands may not be quite as obvious as they were in the past.
—Making the left angry. Many of Mr. Obama’s most liberal supporters fear that his speech will cater to the interests of big business when it comes to trade policy and taxes. And there has been little indication that Mr. Obama plans to make any grand promises along the lines of his pledge last year to end the military’s “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy banning gay service. (A promise he kept at the end of 2010.)
After the president’s compromise with Republicans to extend the Bush-era tax cuts for the wealthy — and the appointment of William M. Daley as chief of staff — Mr. Obama’s liberal supporters are eager for some red meat. Will he give them some?
—Making the right angry. The success of the Tea Party candidates in November’s elections cemented the idea among conservatives that Mr. Obama’s $787 billion stimulus was a failure. So his likely call for increased government investment is bound to be something conservatives on Capitol Hill pounce on. What Mr. Obama calls investment, they view as more federal spending at a time when they are trying to shrink, not grow, the size of government.
—Gun control. Watching Mr. Obama from his wife’s box in the House chamber will be several family members of the victims and heroes of the Arizona shootings. But how will their presence affect the content of the president’s speech? Gun control groups have stepped up their efforts to limit the production and sale of magazines that hold dozens of bullets. And interest groups have been lobbying furiously for Mr. Obama to endorse such legislation in his State of the Union address.
But since becoming president, Mr. Obama has rarely addressed gun issues, and it’s unclear whether he will want to wade into the controversial subject now. Mr. Gibbs told reporters Monday, “I don’t doubt that as a result of the impact of the issues of what happened in Tucson, that there will be a number of proposals that this White House and the Congress will evaluate, and we’ll wait until tomorrow to see what’s in the State of the Union.”
—A brief mention of foreign policy? From all accounts, the president intends the speech Tuesday to be primarily about domestic policy. But it’s hard to imagine that he will avoid national security issues entirely. With the bombing of an airport in Russia fresh on everyone’s mind, Mr. Obama is likely to make a mention of the war against terrorism, perhaps in the context of his administration’s stepped-up use of drones to attack terrorists in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
The president could talk about the beginning of troop withdrawal from Afghanistan this summer, though he has already made clear that many troops are most likely to remain there for several years. It remains unknown whether Mr. Obama will use the speech as an opportunity to send messages to the warring factions in the Middle East or to the leaders of Iran or North Korea.
—The victory lap. State of the Union addresses are about the future. But Mr. Obama could decide to use the nationwide audience to recount the achievements of his first two years. Administration officials often promote the legislative battles they have won, in particular passage of the health care law and revamped financial regulations. Last week, Republicans in the House passed a symbolic repeal of the health care legislation. Mr. Obama could use the speech to highlight the impact that such a move would have on people who could lose benefits.
—The big line. Unlike inaugural addresses, most State of the Union speeches pass into history with little notoriety. But a few serve as the vehicle for memorable lines. Bill Clinton declared that “the era of big government is over” in his 1996 speech. And in his 2002 address, after the 9/11 attacks, George W. Bush declared that Iran, North Korea and Iraq constituted “an axis of evil.”
Listen carefully. The next big line could be uttered Tuesday night.