Bad polling exaggerates support for repeal

Posted at 1:45 PM ET, 01/19/2011

By Greg Sargent

Okay, I noted here yesterday that a clear pattern has emerged when it comes to polling on whether Americans support repealing the health reform law. When pollsters offer respondents a straight choice between full repeal and leaving the law as is, more end up supporting repeal.

But when pollsters ask more nuanced questions that offer a range of options -- such as repealing parts of the law, or even expanding it -- support for full repeal drops significantly. There's no denying that the law is unpopular. The question, though, is whether its unpopularity necessarily translates into direct support for full repeal. More careful polling suggests the answer is No.

New numbers from this week's Washington Post/ABC News poll bear this out yet again. The pollsters first asked people whether they support the law, and found that 45 percent back it, while 50 percent oppose it and 5 percent have no opinion. That latter 55 percent were then offered a range of options as to what they would prefer be done. The breakdown:

Repeal all of it: 18

Repeal parts of it: 19

Wait and see: 17

Less than one in five support full repeal. And this mirrors other examples of the nuanced polling we've seen. The Associated Pressreleased a poll this weekend finding that 43 percent want the law changed so it does more, versus only 26 percent who want it fully repealed. A Marist poll last week found the same, with 35 percent wanting the law expanded versus 30 percent who want it scrapped completely.

Now contrast that with how people respond when they are only offered a choice between full repeal, and keeping the law as it is. Quinnipiacfound yesterday that people favor repeal over letting the health bill stand, 48-43. CNN also found that people want full repeal by 50-42. And MSNBC a few moments ago flashed some similar NBC polling that found the public exactly split, with 45 percent favoring repeal and 46 percent opposing it.

When people are offered a straight-up choice between only the two options, the number who support full repeal jumps. But as the more nuanced polling shows, that simply isn't the preferred course of action for many people in that category. People have multiple reasons for disliking the law, but that doesn't mean they want to get rid of it entirely. It's getting clearer and clearer that simplistic polling exaggerates the support for blowing it up.

UPDATE, 2:14 p.m.: The new NBC poll is here, finding that when offered a straight choice, 45 percent support repeal, versus 46 percent who oppose it. The pattern is overwhelmingly clear at this point.

UPDATE, 3:30 p.m.: I checked in with statistics guru Nate Silver to get his thoughts about this, and he agreed that the simpler polling encourages a perception of more support for full repeal, because it doesn't register that many are inclined towards the middle-ground categories.

"There's a lot of middle ground and that's where a lot of the country gravitates, just as was the case really during the health care debate itself," Silver told me. "And the pollsters who are asking better questions are getting better answers."

By Greg Sargent  | January 19, 2011; 1:45 PM ET