At some point on January 5, Sen. Tom Udall (D-NM) will take the Senate floor and begin a process that he hopes will end in the successful use of the "Constitutional option" -- the prerogative of a majority of the Senate's members to rewrite its rules on the first day of a new Congress.
He and his allies have been vocal about their plan. But the actual sequence of events that starts with him giving a speech, and ends with filibuster reform, is obscure, fragile, and extremely complicated. In fact, it's so involved that the "first day" of the 112th Senate could actually last for weeks.
There are myriad unknowns and X-factors that could change the course of events, and even upend Udall's ambitions altogether. But what follows is a list of steps he and the Senate willhave to take to succeed in exercising the "Constitutional option," so called because the Constitution empowers the Senate to write its own rules.
On day one, Udall -- or, perhaps, one of his allies -- will take the floor, armed with a reform package, and object to the continuation of the previous Senate's rules.
If Vice President Biden is sympathetic to Udall -- a big unknown -- he can chime in supportively (what's known as an advisory opinion). That's what Udall wants, and he's pressing Biden to oblige him.
"The group of reform senators is going to file a brief with the Vice President letting him know what we're going to do," Udall told me. "In the past, three vice presidents, have issued advisory rulings at the beginning of the process."
But the process doesn't hang on that question.
Unfortunately for Udall, his rules package will be subject to -- you guessed it -- filibuster. And Republicans will filibuster. In fact their filibuster will probably carry through the end of the first week, and perhaps even a two week recess. So when his patience runs out, he'll have to be prepared with a complicated procedural motion -- a request that the rules package live or die by majority-rule, and that no intervening business interrupt debate on the reforms.
Republicans won't take that lying down. They'll raise what's known as a "point of order" against Udall's motion, objecting to one or more aspects of it. Biden would have to reject the point of order, or, more likely, let the Senate decide who's right and who's wrong. In that case, Democrats will have to move to table that point of order -- and that only takes 51 votes.
That's where Biden comes in again. Democrats will likely ask Biden to rule that if the point of order is set aside by the majority, it constitutes a validation of Udall's procedural scheme. If Biden agrees, and Dems stick together, then the Constitutional option is invoked, and they'll be on a bumpy path to amending the rules by majority vote. If he doesn't, then the minority's obstruction can continue.
Republicans would throw everything and the kitchen sink at this effort, and Biden could make their lives more complicated by ruling against them at some point, perhaps tanking their efforts. Or Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell could intercede and scrap the Constitutional option altogether in favor of a bipartisan package of rules changes, and the whole process will be aborted.
Reformers want to hew closely to the playbook Democrats used in 1975, when they last reformed the filibuster. Back then Democrats invoked the Constitutional option, but, after their threat was proved credible, Republicans budged and agreed to a bipartisan plan that was adopted via the more traditional rules-change process.
All make sense? Good. If you want to read an even more technical explanation of these steps, check out the below memo, passed along by a Hill source, outlining this scenario in Senate-ese.
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