MONDAY, DECEMBER 13, 2010
You Want Uncertainty? Here's Your Uncertainty
Michael Shear has a good rundown of conservative unhappiness with the tax deal (article is below this one)
, none of which is apparently going to affect the Senate vote (as I write, the bill is sailing through a preliminary procedural vote).
The model for danger ahead, however, is with the House Republican conference. I can't help but think of two other times when a consensus deal came undone when House Republicans deserted at the very last moment: the George HW Bush/Jim Wright deficit cutting deal, and the first TARP vote. In both cases, when push came to shove, Republican Members of the House revealed that the one risk they weren't willing to take was breaking with movement conservatives.
I have no prediction. It's certainly possible that conservatives are backing away from the deal in part as a bargaining step -- with House Democrats asking for a better deal, it makes sense for conservatives to emphasize that they're not desperate for any deal that will get them what they want on high-end taxes and (high-end) estate taxes. I'm just saying that I'm going to be watching the House vote very closely. I don't think there are a lot of examples of House Republicans defying Rush Limbaugh on a high-profile vote over the last twenty years, and if Rush is joined by enough others (yes, it's worth watching Sarah Palin), it's going to be a hard vote for House Republicans. My guess is that the one thing we won't see in the House is the vote just missing...if it can't get a majority, both Democrats and Republicans will switch away from the deal, and it'll lose by 100 votes or more.
, none of which is apparently going to affect the Senate vote (as I write, the bill is sailing through a preliminary procedural vote).
The model for danger ahead, however, is with the House Republican conference. I can't help but think of two other times when a consensus deal came undone when House Republicans deserted at the very last moment: the George HW Bush/Jim Wright deficit cutting deal, and the first TARP vote. In both cases, when push came to shove, Republican Members of the House revealed that the one risk they weren't willing to take was breaking with movement conservatives.
I have no prediction. It's certainly possible that conservatives are backing away from the deal in part as a bargaining step -- with House Democrats asking for a better deal, it makes sense for conservatives to emphasize that they're not desperate for any deal that will get them what they want on high-end taxes and (high-end) estate taxes. I'm just saying that I'm going to be watching the House vote very closely. I don't think there are a lot of examples of House Republicans defying Rush Limbaugh on a high-profile vote over the last twenty years, and if Rush is joined by enough others (yes, it's worth watching Sarah Palin), it's going to be a hard vote for House Republicans. My guess is that the one thing we won't see in the House is the vote just missing...if it can't get a majority, both Democrats and Republicans will switch away from the deal, and it'll lose by 100 votes or more.
Conservatives Attack Tax Deal as Vote Nears
By MICHAEL D. SHEAR
Even as it nears a critical vote in Congress today, the compromise tax deal worked out by President Obama and Republicans on Capitol Hill has some new enemies.
Conservatives.
Last week, the agreement was assailed by liberals who accused the president of giving away the store by agreeing to a temporary extension of tax breaks and reductions in the estate tax, both of which will benefit the wealthy.
But with a critical procedural vote scheduled for Monday afternoon in the Senate, some Tea Party activists and other conservative pundits are attacking it from the other side.
A group called the Tea Party Patriots is circulating a petition accusing Republican lawmakers of cutting a bad backroom deal with the president that violates the principles that Tea Party candidates campaigned on in the midterm elections.
“’The Deal’ revives the death tax, an immoral ‘vampire tax’ that sucks the blood from the dead, ruins family businesses and double taxes savings that were accumulated over a lifetime,” the petition says. “‘The Deal’ spends billions and billions of dollars that the country does not have in order to prevent a tax hike that the country voted against.”
“’The Deal’ revives the death tax, an immoral ‘vampire tax’ that sucks the blood from the dead, ruins family businesses and double taxes savings that were accumulated over a lifetime,” the petition says. “‘The Deal’ spends billions and billions of dollars that the country does not have in order to prevent a tax hike that the country voted against.”
Rush Limbaugh, the conservative radio host, said the tax deal “should not happen.” On his show Friday, Mr. Limbaugh blasted the Republican lawmakers on Capitol Hill for giving in too much to Mr. Obama.
“The economic benefit here, if we do this deal, is going to be minimal,” Mr. Limbaugh said, insisting that Republicans should have fought for the permanent extension of the tax cuts rather than giving in to a temporary one. “Where is the Republican vision?”
Erik Erickson, the conservative blogger, wrote at Redstate.com that the “deal must now die.”
“It must now be opposed by Republicans,” Mr. Erickson wrote. “Released now in print, the legislation is loaded up with budget-busting pork of ridiculously absurd levels.”
Sarah Palin, the former governor of Alaska, appears to agree with Mr. Limbaugh. In a Twitter message, she endorsed the position of Senator Jim DeMint, Republican of South Carolina, who has criticized the compromise.
The Twitter message from a conservative commentator said, “Thank you, @JimDeMint — DeMint comes out against tax deal, says G.O.P. must do better than this.”
And Charles Krauthammer, the conservative columnist for The Washington Post, wrote in his last column that Mr. Obama and the Democrats had gotten more than people realized in the deal.
“Obama is no fool,” Mr. Krauthammer wrote. “While getting Republicans to boost his own re-election chances, he gets them to make a mockery of their newfound, second-chance, post-Bush, Tea Party, this-time-we’re-serious persona of debt-averse fiscal responsibility.”
The Tea Party petition echoes many of the criticisms that disaffected liberals hurled at Mr. Obama after he took office and started negotiating with Congress to advance his agenda. Some of the accusations could easily have been written about Mr. Obama’s health care fight.
“This ‘backroom deal’ ignores those who voted for principled leadership on Election Day,” said Mark Meckler, the national coordinator for the Tea Party Patriots. “Americans demand transparency in the legislative process and policies that reflect fiscal responsibility — not secret negotiations and weak compromise.”
Will the carping from the right make a difference in the bill’s chances? That’s hard to imagine, given the louder chorus of praise for the compromise from Republican lawmakers who will vote as early as today.
But keeping your base satisfied is tough, as President Obama discovered during his first two years in office. And in the House, especially, it looks like Republicans will have to be quite united behind the legislation if many Democrats abandon the president.
Stay tuned for the voting.
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