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Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Which Industries Won and Lost in Election 2010?

By Michael Beckel on November 10, 2010 1:12 PM      


Imagine that every member of Congress represents the industry or special interests that have contributed the most to his or her campaign coffers.

Which industries and special interests, then, lost or won seats in Congress during the 2010 midterm election?

Several traditionally Democratic allies lost ground, a preliminary analysis by the Center for Responsive Politics shows.

Public sector unions and industrial unions, for instance, lost one seat a piece: Democratic Reps. Diane Watson of California and Lincoln Davis of Tennessee, respectively.

Transportation unions lost three seats -- Democratic Reps. Brian Baird of Washington, David Obey of Wisconsin and Jim Oberstar of Minnesota.

And the women's issues interest bloc also lost three seats -- Democratic Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick of Arizona, Betsy Markey of Colorado and Mary Jo Kilroy of Ohio.

The biggest loser, however, in the House was the legal community. Lawyers and law firms saw 30 top beneficiaries leave office or go down to defeat, while only 15 top beneficiaries won -- a net loss of 15 seats, the Center's research shows.

Lawmakers supported the most by Democratic/liberal interests also experienced a setback. No new, incoming lawmakers will count these interests as their top donors; meanwhile, 10 lawmakers who counted these interests has their top donor won’t be returning.

Retired people, who traditionally lean Republican in their giving, meanwhile, were the biggest winner in the House.

Politicians whose top donors are retired people will occupy at least 26 new House seats. Only six lawmakers who counted retired people as their top donors will not be returning to work in the 112th Congress. This is a net gain of 20 seats for retired interests, according to the Center's analysis.

Leadership PACs were the next biggest winner in the House, with a net gain of 12 seats, after seeing 18 politicians who counted leadership PACs as their top donors win, while six lost.

The special interest bloc of Republican/conservative interests, furthermore, gained four seats in the House, after seeing five new politicians elected and one defeated at the polls.

And the mining industry gained two new seats -- Republicans Bill Johnson and Bob Gibbs, who both in defeated Democratic incumbents in Ohio.

Notably, the oil and gas industry’s representation in the new Congress will not change, according to the Center’s research. While three lawmakers who count the oil and gas industry as their top donor will not be returning to the House in January, three new ones will take their place.

Thanks to the oil and gas industry, Republicans Steve Pearce of New Mexico, Bill Flores of Texas and Mike Pompeo of Kansas will be joining the 112th Congress while oil-backed Reps. Harry Teague (D-N.M.), Mary Fallin (R-Okla.) and Todd Tiahrt (R-Kansas) are leaving.

Below is a table showing all industry representation changes in the House. A download-able version of this table and the itemized data behind it is available at the bottom of the page.

House Top Industries ChangingNew IncomingOutgoing MembersNet Gain/Loss
Retired26620
Leadership PACs18612
Republican/Conservative514
Health Professionals14122
Mining202
Misc Business202
Real Estate321
Securities & Investment211
Misc Finance101
Special Trade Contractors101
Oil & Gas330
Automotive01-1
Computers/Internet01-1
Defense Aerospace01-1
Electric Utilities01-1
Industrial Unions01-1
Misc Manufacturing & Distributing01-1
Misc Services01-1
Public Sector Unions01-1
Insurance03-3
Transportation Unions03-3
Women's Issues03-3
Crop Production & Basic Processing26-4
Democratic/Liberal010-10
Lawyers/Law Firms1530-15

On the Senate side of Congress, the special interest bloc of retired people again proved to be a big winner. 

Here, five politicians with retired people as their top industry backer were elected last week. Three lawmakers backed by retired people, meanwhile, won’t be returning to work in January -- yielding a net gain of two seats for retired people.

Health professionals, the business services industry, Republican/conservative interests, Democratic/liberal interests, leadership PACs, the crop production industry and the oil and gas industry all gained one seat a piece in the Senate.

Lobbyists, public sector unions and the pharmaceutical industry, meanwhile, each lost one seat a piece: Sens. George LeMieux (R-Fla.), Roland Burris (D-Ill.) and Judd Gregg (R-N.H.), respectively.

LeMieux, who was appointed to his by Republican Gov. Charlie Crist after Mel Martinez retired last year, is the outgoing favorite of lobbyists. Since he was not running to retain the seat himself, LeMieux did not register a campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission, but he did raise more than $220,000 for his leadership PAC, with one-tenth of that sum coming from lobbyists. He is also reportedly mulling a 2012 bid against Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.).

Burris, who was appointed to fill President Barack Obama’s Senate seat by Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich, raised a measly $102,000 since last year and decided to drop his bid for retaining the seat due to poor fund-raising. Two public sector unions accounted for $10,000 of his sum, the most of any industry.

Sens.-elect Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Chris Coons (D-Del.), whose top donors so far have been leadership PACs and Democratic/liberal interests, will be replacing “placeholder” senators who did not have leadership PACs of their own or campaign committees.

As in the House, lawyers and law firms were the biggest losers. These interests lost a net of four seats in the Senate. Five incumbents whose top industry donor has been lawyers and law firms are headed for the exits, while just one new member was elected whose top financial backers have been lawyers and law firms.

Here is a table showing all industry representation changes in the Senate. A download-able version of this table and the itemized data behind it is available at the bottom of the page.

Senate Top Industries ChangingNew IncomingOutgoing MembersNet Gain/Loss
Retired532
Health Professionals101
Business Services101
Republican/Conservative101
Democratic/Liberal101
Leadership PACs101
Crop Production & Basic Processing101
Oil & Gas101
Securities & Investment220
Insurance110
Lobbyists01-1
Public Sector Unions01-1
Pharmaceuticals/Health Products01-1
Lawyers/Law Firms15-4

Not unsurprisingly, Democratic-leaning interest groups and their allies generally lost seats in both chambers of Congress, while traditionally Republican-aligned interests and industries gained ground.

On Nov. 2, Republicans won 35 open seat House races, some of which were held by Republicans and some of which were held by Democrats. Additionally, at least 50 Republican challengers won on Election Day, the Center’s analysis shows -- yielding a net loss of at least 60 seats for Democrats. Five House races still remained undecided as of today.

Overall, more House incumbents lost during the 2010 elections than at any other time since 1948, as the Center for Responsive Politics previously reported. Still, 85 percent of incumbents are headed back to work in the U.S. House in January.

In the Senate, Republicans saw a net gain of six seats, shy of the eleven seats they needed to take control of the chamber. Only one Senate race is still undecided -- as conservative attorney Joe Miller battles incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), who forged ahead with a write-in campaign after Miller beat her in a Republican primary.

This preliminary analysis by the Center for Responsive Politics is based on the career top contributors to candidate committees and leadership PACs of the out-going members of the 111th Congress and the new members of the 112th Congress.

The analysis based on campaign finance reports filed before the election for the 94 settled House races where an incumbent was not reelected and the 16 settled Senate races where an incumbent was not reelected. Top industry backers to lawmakers could change over time as the Center processes additional data.

Download these charts, the full list of new incoming members, outgoing members and their top industries here: Industry 2010 Winners.xls

Center for Responsive Politics senior researcher Douglas Weber contributed to this report.

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