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Friday, November 19, 2010

First thoughts: What we learned at the RGA meeting

What we learned at the RGA meeting: 1) The GOP is more than invigorated after its midterm victories… 2) There’s no love lost between Haley Barbour’s RGA and Michael Steele’s RNC… 3) The governors who are eyeing 2012 are in no hurry to get in the race… Obama arrives in Lisbon… Lew -- finally -- gets confirmed… And Miller Time isn’t over, as Joe Miller has asked for an injunction to stop officials from certifying the results in Alaska.



SAN DIEGO, Calif./LISBON, Portugal -- We learned at least three things at the annual Republican Governors Association meeting that concluded here yesterday. First, Republicans are invigorated after their midterm victories earlier this month, no surprise. In consecutive days, the RGA showcased their rising and diverse stars (Nikki Haley of South Carolina, Susana Martinez of New Mexico, and Brian Sandoval of Nevada), and their victorious candidates from Midwest battleground states (Tom Corbett of Pennsylvania, John Kasich of Ohio, Rick Snyder of Michigan, and Scott Walker of Wisconsin). As outgoing Minnesota Gov. -- and possible presidential contender -- Tim Pawlenty said of these governors-elect, "I think the country is going to look at them and say, 'Wow.'" If the Republicans did anything in 2010 for their future even if 2012 doesn't go as planned for them, it was deepening their bench for 2016 and beyond.
*** RGA gets in its digs at Steele and the RNC: Second, we learned that there is no love lost between Haley Barbour's RGA and Michael Steele's RNC. Throughout the two-day conference, Barbour and his allies got in their digs at Steele and made it clear that they want Steele out. Barbour said yesterday that, in 2012, it is “absolutely essential that the RNC operate at maximum capacity,” adding that the RNC didn’t do that in 2010. Remember, the RGA can't fill the gap for the RNC in 2012 since there are just a handful of GOV races (11) with only 4 (and we're being generous) in potential presidential battleground states (MO, IN, NC and NH). RGA folks made clear to First Read that they could have won some of the close races they ended up losing -- like Connecticut, Illinois, Oregon, or Vermont -- if there had been a better-financed RNC with the kind of ground game it has provided in previous years. By the way, Republican Saul Anuzis, who already has announced his bid for RNC chair, was working the halls at the meeting. The rhetoric from the governors seems to hint that there is a desire to unite behind one major anti-Steele candidate in the RNC chair race.
*** Slow ride, take it easy: And third, the governors who are eyeing the 2012 presidential race are planning to take their time before making up their minds. Barbour said he wouldn't announce a decision until after his state's legislative ends in April or May. Is he thinking about running? "I am," he said, adding: "I've begun to talk about it." As for Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, he said that he would spend the next five or six months on "another round of reforms" in the state. "That takes you into April," saying that any decision wouldn’t come before then. And Pawlenty told reporters that he is "a few months" away from making a decision. Mitt Romney appears to be in no hurry, either. Politico writes, “Romney is letting donors know it’ll be a while before he looks to 2012 — and that any presidential campaign he builds will have a much smaller staff than in 2008. ‘People are exhausted from the 2010 election, and they’re not anxious to begin right away with the next campaign,’” Romney told donors, per Politico.
*** Obama arrives in Lisbon… : Thousands of miles away from San Diego, President Obama touched down earlier this morning in Lisbon, Portugal for a NATO summit. This may be a short overseas trip, but the issues involved couldn't be more important to the president -- from getting continued NATO buy-in on the U.S. plan in Afghanistan, to massaging relations with Russia as the president struggles to get the START treaty ratified in the lame-duck Senate. On Afghanistan, this is the beginning of the re-framing of the withdrawal timeline way from July 2011 to the end of 2014. As the administration will argue, 2011 was never an END to Afghanistan but rather the target date to BEGIN the end of the war. And that's how this is being pitched to NATO leaders this weekend; the idea is that as Afghan troops stand up, NATO and U.S. troops stand down. It's a phrase that became familiar to the American public during the height of the Iraq war. Of course, the hard political sell for the White House is to make sure the short-attention span, ADD media doesn't shorthand all of this as "U.S. isn't getting out of Afghanistan until 2014" instead of "U.S. begins withdrawal in 2011, but the withdrawal could take as long as three years." Why 2014? Why not 2012, 2013, or now? Is there really that much confidence the Afghan Army's capability to provide their own security is going to be leaps and bounds better three years from now? That's the question facing the president.
*** … And pens op-ed: Meanwhile, Obama has penned this op-ed in the International Herald-Tribune: “Our shared effort [in Afghanistan] is essential to denying terrorists a safe haven, just as it is necessary to improve the lives of the Afghan people. With the arrival of additional coalition forces over the last two years, we finally have the strategy and resources to break the Taliban's momentum, deprive insurgents of their strongholds, train more Afghan security forces, and assist the Afghan people. In Lisbon, we will align our approach so that we can begin a transition to Afghan responsibility early next year, and adopt President Hamid Karzai's goal of Afghan forces taking the lead for security across Afghanistan by the end of 2014.
*** Who START-ed This Fight: As for the president's struggle to get START passed by the lame-duck senate, look for the administration to begin making a more substantive argument for it, rather than simply the political argument you've been hearing (tradition dictates bipartisan majorities have passed treaties like this before). The substantive arguments include: the fact so many European leaders want this treaty ratified and enacted out of their own safety concerns; Russian cooperation on dealing with Iran could be hampered if it dies; Eastern European countries (like Poland) do support this treaty; and the worry by some Russian experts that the failure of this treaty to be ratified could weaken Medvedev domestically in his partnership with Putin.
*** Lew gets confirmed -- finally: You know it has been a rough last couple of weeks for the White House when the good news includes getting its OMB pick finally confirmed. The Senate last night confirmed Jacob Lew as the president’s new budget director after Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu lifted her hold on the nomination. Per Roll Call, Landrieu held up the nomination to protest the administration’s deepwater-drilling moratorium. “The moratorium was lifted last month, and Landrieu said at the time that the move was a ‘good start’ but that she would monitor the administration’s handling of drilling permits before deciding whether to let Lew’s nomination go forward. “In a floor speech after the vote Thursday, Landrieu said she was lifting her hold ‘because notable progress has been made, permits have been issued.’”
*** Strategery? Why did the House Democrats push to pass unemployment benefits, even though they knew they didn’t have the votes? Sure, they got the GOP on record, but what about the ultimate goal of getting these benefits? Will Dems use this as a negotiating tool with Republicans over the Bush tax cuts? And what is the strategy on this issue? Is there one?
*** Censure recommended for Rangel: If he could do it over again, do you think Rep. Charlie Rangel (D) would have run for re-election? Or at least tried a different strategy? The New York Times: "The House ethics committee on Thursday recommended that Representative Charles B. Rangel be formally censured for ethical misconduct, the most serious punishment the House can mete out to a member short of expulsion... Censure requires approval by the full House, which plans to take up the matter after its Thanksgiving recess." More: "If, as expected, censure is approved, Mr. Rangel will be the first member to receive such punishment since 1983, when two congressmen were rebuked for sexual misconduct with House pages. Mr. Rangel would be required to stand in the well of the House while the speaker reads a resolution rebuking him."
*** Miller Time (isn’t over): Even though opponent Lisa Murkowski has been declared the apparent winner in Alaska’s Senate race, Joe Miller isn’t giving up. As the Anchorage Daily News writes, “The Republican candidate in the Alaska U.S. Senate race asked a federal judge Thursday for a preliminary injunction stopping officials from certifying the election. An attorney for Joe Miller sought the injunction as part of a previous lawsuit challenging write-in ballots for Lisa Murkowski, the incumbent senator.”


Comments

What it's About?
It was political strategist James Carville who is credited with the phrase "It's the economy stupid." Conventional wisdom may agree, but I'm not so sure. The Republicans have done everything possible to keep the economy in the dumps, including voting against the stimulus bill, voting against tax breaks for small businesses and voting against financial reform which created this financial mess (the list goes on).
It's not about our large deficit either. GOP/TP say they want to lower the debt but they also want to give tax breaks to the very rich, thus INCREASING our national debt. Those are two mutually exclusive opposite notions.
It's not about job creation either. Republicans say they want to create jobs, but they have voted against every bill designed to create jobs. Some, like Republican Senator-elect Dan Coats (Indiana) have actually lobbied for US jobs to be sent to other countries. Tea Party candidates say they want to create jobs, but what they really want is to reduce the size of government, cut government projects, thus reducing the number of jobs.
So what is it about? Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell said it best. It's about Obama being a one-term president. Republicans are willing to do whatever is necessary to take down our President. It's not about cooperation and compromise, it just isn't. If Republicans show any inclination to find solutions, their own Tea Party will put moderate Republicans on a "hit list" and will not support them in the next election (i.e. Scott Brown and possibly Richard Lugar). Fear of the Tea Party trumps doing the right thing for the country.
What the Democrats and President Obama must keep in mind is that the only goal of the opposition party is to defeat them in 2012. To counter this goal Democrats need to do at least two things.
1.Stop caving in before the negotiations even begin. Giving up early without a fight gives away your bargaining chips and creates the perception of being weak.
2.Address the media problems of not being able to carry out the message. IT"S ABOUT THE MESSAGE. Clearly, the GOP/TP via Fox News distorted the truth; oftentimes they flat out lied. There is no Democratic counter-balance to present their own message. It is the responsibility of the DNC to get out the message. What I am sure about is that some group of individuals need to go beyond just fact-checking and find the voice of the Democratic Party. It is imperative, it is crucial to their success.
Reply#1 - Fri Nov 19, 2010 9:21 AM EST



It is Friday November 19, 2010 and we had an interesting week.
Nancy Pelosi will still be the Democratic Leader in the House – Good for Ms. Pelosi
Looks like Miller will get handed his walking papers and Ms. Palin gets another check in her loss column
The republican/tea party bail out of their requested meeting with President Obama – This was another republican tactic to embarrass our President. They have no intention of working with him and this is further proof of their agenda to make President Obama fail at all costs. And to add insult to injury, they are on TV today, while they were supposed to be meeting with the President, saying that the President needs to come to them and they would be glad to work with him (Boehner) while McConnell is giving a speech about repealing the HCR.
No shame, just 100% Obstructionism.
The republicans block the “Equal Pay for Women Bill” yesterday. All the Democrats voted Yeas and all the Republicans voted Nays basically telling ALL working women that men are worth more for the same job than they are. I told you before that the republicans are trying to make a class based society. Here is proof. Men are more important than women and deserve more money for doing the same thing. Has nothing to do with qualifications etc., only if you are male or female. This is totally repugnant in my opinion.
The Unemployment Extension Bill was voted down overwhelmingly by the republicans. But this time, the Democrats forced a vote on the floor of the House and we now know the name of every single person that voted no. I can not wait until 2012. I hope the Democrats do the same thing with the Tax Cuts for the Middle Class and the New Start Treaty. Force the vote and take names, see you in November 2012.
Boehner gets himself in trouble at home and with the Tea Party by supporting the repeal of the Ethics Committee. This is the same guy that endorsed a Transparent Government before he voted against the Disclosure Bill. Do we see a pattern here? First the SCOTUS gives us the “Citizens United” decision that gutted our Political Process by allowing unlimited and undisclosed money (both Foreign and Domestic) to influence (BUY) political favor by the US Chamber of Commerce, American Crossroads and a bevy of other Special Interest Groups. The Senate Republicans block the Disclosure Bill so we will never know who is giving what to whom, and now to further protect themselves from any responsibility Boehner now wants to repeal the “Ethics Committee.
Add this to the fact that Justice Scalia this week said he is in favor of repealing the 17th Amendment that will take the right to vote away from the people. A Supreme Court Justice saying he wants an Amendment repealed. I thought these guys were only supposed to interpret the constitution, not re-write it for their own agenda.
On Rachael Maddow last night it was announced that 3 republican Senators may vote to repeal the DADT. Personally, I will believe it when I see it. I hope it is true. Supposedly Collins, Luger and Murkowski are leaning toward the democrats. We will see soon, Harry Reid said he would call for a vote on the National Defense Bill that includes the DADT and Dream Act before the end of the session.
The number one issue according to the recent exist polls is Jobs (56%) followed by a distant Health Care (14%) and the Deficit is at only 4%. Why are not the republican/tea party talking about Jobs? I saw nothing this week that addresses this primary issue of the American People. Instead, this week the republican/tea party continues with their agenda of “Obstructionism” and the “Cat Food” committee. They are deliberately trying to misguide the American People away from this number one issue. They continue this week with the Tax Cuts for the richest 2% that does not create jobs, it does not add to the economy. It does increase the Economic Gap between the Middle Class and the richest 2% to new record highs. In order for the Middle Class to keep the much needed Tax Cuts currently in place, the republican/tea party has demanded that we continue the Tax Cuts for the richest 2% that will also get over 50% of the benefits again on a permanent basis. They want us to pay for these Tax Cuts until he!! freezes over and give them the lions share of the benefits as well. We cannot afford it. Just for 10 years it would cost America $830 Billion Dollars (700 + 130) and return nothing except give money to Wall Street. And to show how out of touch they are, they, the republican/tea party, claim they want to reduce the deficit, be fiscally conservative. How are you going to do that when you want an $830 Billion Dollar increase to the deficit coming off the starting line??? Explain that one to America.



#1.1 - Fri Nov 19, 2010 9:28 AM EST

Hi Ron Indiana
Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell said it best. It's about Obama being a one-term president. Republicans are willing to do whatever is necessary to take down our President.

Yes, Ron you nailed it. That is exactly what it's about.
Remember…
Mitch McConnell went so far to call in a very divisive meeting aimed at implementing their dysfunctional strategy to just say “NO”. The strategy that has brought Senate Republicans where they are today began when they gathered, beaten and dispirited, at the Library of Congress two weeks before Mr. Obama’s inauguration.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/17/us/politics/17mcconnell.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all
That is horrific. The Republican/ Tea Party is not listening to the people. The people want jobs not gridlock.
Great post; Ron good to see you back. computer is working fine?
#1.2 - Fri Nov 19, 2010 9:31 AM EST

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