How Much Oil Has Leaked Into the Gulf of Mexico?

OIL SPILL -- May 9, 2010 at 12:37 PM EST

By: Chris Amico  

View ticker with live video feed. Last updated 11 a.m. ET on May 27.
Nobody knows for certain how much oil has leaked into the Gulf of Mexico since last month's oil rig explosion. What we do have are estimates -- from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, from outside experts, from British Petroleum -- of how fast crude is flowing out of two remaining leaks (a third was plugged Wednesday).
Oil has been flowing out of ruptures in the Deepwater Horizon well on the ocean floor since around 10 a.m. on April 22, two days after the BP-leased rig exploded, leaving 11 workers missing and presumed dead.
According to NOAA, an estimated 210,000 gallons (5,000 barrels) a day is coming from the remaining ruptures. At that rate, this leak would surpass the 11 million gallons spilled by the Exxon Valdez in 1989 in mid-June if left unchecked.
Other estimates are far more grim. The New York Times reported that BP told members of Congress the rate could be much, much higher:

In a closed-door briefing for members of Congress, a senior BP executive conceded Tuesday that the ruptured oil well could conceivably spill as much as 60,000 barrels a day of oil, more than 10 times the estimate of the current flow.

A barrel of crude oil contains roughly 42 gallons. In a follow-up story, the Times talked to a BP spokesman for more on the estimate:

"The rate could go up to that," Mr. Suttles of BP said, when asked to verify a report in The Times. "It's not the situation we have at this moment, but it's not impossible."

Based on this range of figures, we built the meter atop this post to give a ballpark figure of how much oil may have leaked into the Gulf based on each scenario (by multiplying the rate of leakage by the amount of time passed since the rupture) and other possible rates between those estimates.
At the low end is NOAA's estimate of 210,000 gallons per day. At the high end is what BP told Congress. Drag the slider between those poles to see other possible rates. Keep in mind that all of this is only an estimate.
You can also embed this meter on your own site or blog. We'll keep monitoring the situation and check on updates to our calculations as needed.
Editor's Note: An earlier version of the text of this story included a reference to NOAA's estimate as 210,000 barrels of oil per day. The correct measure is 210,000 gallons. This is an updated version.
Vanessa Dennis contributed to this report.

OIL SPILL -- May 21, 2010 at 8:00 PM EST

Live from the Ocean Floor: New Oil Leak Widget Features 'Spillcam'

By: Hari Sreenivasan

BP's live video stream of oil gushing into the Gulf of Mexico is simultaneously tragic and hypnotic. With each passing second, more gallons of crude oil and natural gas escape into the ocean.
Until Thursday, BP and NOAA had stood by their early estimate -- produced April 29, a week after the Deepwater Horizon rig sank -- that about 5,000 barrels (210,000 gallons) were leaking per day from the damaged well, although they had acknowledged that the estimate was not precise.
And after the world first witnessed the 30-second video clip that BP released on May 12, scientists began to wonder more loudly how the estimate could be that low.
Now, thanks in part to congressional pressure, we have a way to watch the environmental crisis unfold in real time via a live video feed. We modified our original Gulf Leak Meter because the video takes our sliding scale out of the abstract and into reality.


View original ticker. Last updated 11 a.m. ET on May 27.
Our first oil widget, which we released May 9 and continue to update, allows readers to choose scenarios based on the best guesses (because that is truly what they were) of the spill's size. On May 14, we spoke with some outside experts for more perspectives on how much oil might be flowing from the leak. And on May 17, we factored in that BP was reporting some success in siphoning 2,000 barrels of oil per day out of the leaking well.
Here's a look at some of the other numbers that form the basis of our oil leak range, including our update on May 21 about reports of a new estimate on the way:

• NOAA | 210,000 gal/day
• USGS (Added May 27) | 504,000 to 798,000 dal/day
• Outside Estimates | 1,050,000 gal/day
• BP (Worst Case as of May 5) | 2,520,000 gal/day
• Experts' Worst Case | 4,200,000 gal/day

A new "flow rate technical team" comprised of outside experts and multiple government agencies is beginning work on a new estimate of the leak's magnitude, which could come as early as this weekend. We'll update both our widgets until the leak is stopped.
Wire services reported Friday evening that the White House plans to name former Florida Sen. Bob Graham and former EPA administrator William K. Reilly to lead the presidential commission investigating the oil leak.