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Wednesday, July 13, 2011

The man behind the Marriage Vow

TUESDAY, JUL 12, 2011 07:45 ET

Iowa conservative culture warrior Bob Vander Plaats talks to Salon about porn, sharia and Mitt Romney's Mormonism

BY JUSTIN ELLIOTT
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Potential U.S. Spending Cuts Might Further Weaken Economic Recovery


Us Austerity
First Posted: 7/11/11 02:23 PM ET Updated: 7/11/11 02:28 PM ET




NEW YORK (Steven C. Johnson) - Two years removed from its worst recession since World War Two, the U.S. economy is still struggling to create jobs, and things could get even tougher if all the talk of belt-tightening in Washington becomes reality.
Data on Friday showed hiring ground to a near halt last month, driving the jobless rate up to 9.2 percent and casting doubt on whether a sluggish U.S. recovery would soon pick up steam.
This all but ensures the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at record lows well into 2012. But help probably won't be as forthcoming from Congress and the White House, which are locked in battle over cutting a $1.4 trillion budget deficit.
The problem is one of timing: Economists and investors fear that with weak labor and housing markets causing consumers to tighten their own belts, the last thing the economy needs is an aggressive dose of austerity from the federal government.
"The U.S. government has its work cut out for it," said Douglas Borthwick, managing director at Faros Trading in Stamford, Connecticut. "U.S. fiscal problems have been put off for so long that the government has to cut spending at a time when the economy is unable to absorb it."
As a share of output, the $1.4 trillion budget gap expected for the fiscal year ending in September is one of the largest since World War Two.
President Barack Obama and Republican leaders are aiming for savings of $2 trillion to $4 trillion over 10 years but are at odds over the right mix of spending cuts and tax hikes.
A deal is needed by August 2 in order to lift the $14.3 trillion cap on government borrowing.
While that's not an astronomical amount for a $14 trillion economy, it still amounts to tighter policy at a time that many economists say requires even more aggressive federal spending.
Much depends on the size, scope and timing of spending cuts. If they are large enough and take effect next year, they will depress corporate earnings and weigh on equity markets, according to Credit Suisse U.S. equity strategist Doug Cliggott.
Solid corporate earnings and loose monetary and fiscal policies have helped the S&P 500 index double in value since early 2009.
"We really are in a bind here," Cliggott said, "We have to start addressing the deficit, and if it means a rough stretch for corporate profits and the equity market, then they go through a rough stretch. Putting it off is not the answer."
WALKING THE TIGHTROPE
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and others have urged lawmakers to reduce the deficit but to back-load the most draconian spending cuts or tax hikes to shield the fragile economy.
"The idea seems to be that reducing the deficit will somehow produce jobs," said Kathy Jones, fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab. "I'm not sure there's a direct correlation there. We need to allow growth now, because stronger growth will help the long-term fiscal outlook."
That's clear in Europe. Facing default, Greece's parliament last week adopted a package of large and unpopular spending cuts and tax hikes in exchange for international aid.
But economists and investors fear the austerity will make it difficult for the country to grow its way back to health.
Britain, too, has been more aggressive than the United States in cutting spending and raising taxes, and the pace of growth slowed to 1.6 percent in the 12 months to March. Markets are even starting to bet the central bank may have to act by pumping more money into the economy.
David Semmens, U.S. economist at Standard Chartered, said the 2012 election may clip even the biggest deficit hawks' wings, as lawmakers won't want to lose votes. A rising jobless rate is an impediment for Obama's reelection chances.
"I think any spending cuts will be aimed at 2013," he said.
But history does suggest a commitment to fiscal probity is required for long-term economic health. Cliggott said countries with debt-to-output ratios above 90 percent have traditionally grown at slower rates than those with stronger finances.
"It shows the tightrope that has to be walked," said Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com. "We've got to rein in the government red ink so we don't in coming years face a day of reckoning. But it's a balancing act, because if you rein it in too much, it will plunge us into recession."
(Editing by Leslie Adler)
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Ohio Heartbeat Bill On Hold Until Fall



Author image
by Robin Marty, RH Reality Check
July 11, 2011 - 4:36pm (Print)


Voting on passage of the Ohio "Heartbeat" Bill, a law that would ban abortions that happen once a heartbeat can be detected -- as early as 18 day post conception in some cases and almost always by 6 weeks, is on hold until this fall, when the senate will then take up the measure.
Proponents of the ban say that a heartbeat is the perfect way to discern when life begins and when abortion can no longer be an option, although conception is still the best point overall.
Via the Marietta Times:
Pro-life supporter Barbara Hintz, 75, of Marietta, said she supports the Heartbeat Bill, but would like to see all abortions end.
"This is a good bill and it is a step in the right direction," she said. "A heartbeat represents life but conception should be the landmark. That's when you become human."
A co-sponsor of the bill, Ohio Rep. Andy Thompson, R-Marietta, said the bill defines a heartbeat as life. Currently, abortions in the state are legal until a fetus is considered viable, which is generally 22 to 24 weeks gestation.
"This bill creates a pretty basic standard," Thompson said. "A heartbeat is life."
Ohio still has a large number of other anti-abortion bills to challenge in court first -- most recently a 20 week abortion ban that has no exceptions for rape, incest or health of the mother.
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Boehner-Cantor rivalry affecting debt talks



It's not the first sign of friction between the two Republican leaders.




Debt dispute
The debt talks are not the first time friction has been apparent between House Speaker John A. Boehner, rear, and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor. (Win McNamee, Getty Images / July 12, 2011)
 


By Lisa Mascaro and Kathleen Hennessey, Washington Bureau
July 11, 2011, 7:49 p.m.
Reporting from Washington— 
A long-simmering rivalry between the top two Republicans in the House has tumbled into the open, with far-reaching implications for deficit-reduction negotiations with the White House.

Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) and Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) are at odds overPresident Obama's call for a massive deficit-reduction package to address fiscal problems and provide for an increase in the country's $14.3-trillion borrowing limit before an Aug. 2 deadline.

In private talks with the White House, Boehner favored a large package as part of pragmatic political deal-making. But Cantor, speaking for staunch conservatives in Congress, is opposed.

In a briefing Monday, Cantor downplayed the divisions, insisting repeatedly that he and the speaker were "on the same page." But friction between the two has grown obvious, reinforcing months-old questions over who controls House Republicans.

"I don't think Boehner would want to serve in a foxhole anytime with Eric Cantor," said a Republican strategist and former leadership aide who asked not to be identified while commenting on an intraparty rivalry.

Obama praised Boehner in a nationally televised news conference Monday as he warned that a budget accord would only grow more difficult with time. "Do it now," Obama said. "Pull off the Band-Aid. Eat our peas."

But Cantor and the political right seem to be dictating the course of talks. Their pressure forced Boehner over the weekend to abandon his support for doing "something big" on the federal budget, and cast Cantor as the champion of the conservative flank.

"Boehner is facing a similar problem to that Gingrich faced in 1995-1996 — he can't control the rebels in the caucus who helped him gain power," said Princeton University professor Julian Zelizer, referring to then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich. "The debt ceiling has turned into as much of a test for the GOP and its internal leadership as it is for which party is stronger."

Cantor's ascent puts him at a risky crossroads. At some point, an agreement on the deficit-reduction package will pose questions about his influence: Did his hard-line stance help or hurt Republican goals? And will the "tea party" activists he courted revolt if he supports a compromise?

Cantor favors a smaller deficit package, made up primarily of spending cuts. Obama has proposed new taxes for the wealthy, which both Boehner and Cantor oppose. But Boehner was willing to work with the administration on a broader package of tax changes before talks fell apart.

As long as Boehner remains House speaker — which he is expected to do as long as he wants — Cantor's partnership will be under scrutiny. At a closed-door meeting of Republicans last week, one rank-and-file lawmaker reportedly urged colleagues not to criticize leaders publicly, lest the GOP appear in disarray.

At the Capitol, visitors to Cantor's office must pass through a stately, arched hallway where the sign reads: "John A. Boehner, House speaker."

The proximity of the Virginian's office to the speaker's suite may be less a symbol of a close relationship than of Cantor's aspirations to occupy the No. 1 spot someday.

When side by side, Cantor appears to be the brainier and more ambitious of the two. At 48, he is a political enthusiast, easily animated. Boehner, 61, wears his power more subtly, behind cigarettes and an old-school cool. The Ohioan mocks Cantor's Italian loafers.

In many ways, it is a one-way rivalry. Yet because power is ever-shifting in Washington, Cantor's ascent has put Boehner on guard. The House is overwhelmingly conservative, especially with the tea party's advent.

Cantor declined to challenge Boehner for the speaker's job when the GOP won control of the chamber last fall, despite rumors that he would.

But as the tide of conservatives arrived in the House this year, Cantor aligned himself with them. He has lavished attention and campaign funds on other members. In what was widely seen as an affront to Boehner, he published a book with two other rising GOP leaders, "Young Guns," setting out the principles of "a new generation of conservative leaders." Boehner made hardly a cameo.

The older vanguard in the Republican House stands by Boehner. Cantor is sometimes seen as less personable. But even among veteran lawmakers, the pressure from the right is so strong that it influences their loyalties.

"If there's a popularity contest right now, Cantor wins it," said one GOP aide granted anonymity to speak freely on the topic.

 On Sunday night, as top congressional leaders met with the White House, Cantor did most of the talking for the GOP, according to aides familiar with the meeting.

"I can tell you that so far, Congressman Cantor has been running the show on the Republican side — almost exclusively — and he has about played out his hand," said a Democrat who was in the White House meeting Monday and who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the closed meeting.

But others suggested that Boehner was simply speaking briefly, and was comfortable delegating.

"Boehner is someone who doesn't feel compelled to be the center of attention all of the time," said David Winston, an advisor to the House leadership who says the men work well together.

The speaker decided earlier this year to put Cantor in charge of an initial round of debt talks with the White House. It was an opportunity to delegate, and it represented a test for Cantor, who excelled at the task.

Vice President Joe Biden, who led the talks, expressed surprise at how much he enjoyed working with him.

"For real," Biden said. "The guy's smart as hell."

But Cantor withdrew from the talks last month, objecting to what he described as Democratic insistence on tax increases. He quit the morning after Boehner met, unannounced, with Obama. Cantor disclosed his decision in an early morning interview, alerting the speaker just hours before the news broke.

To the conservative GOP flank, Cantor had emerged as their champion.

But Cantor is taking a risk by appearing to counter Boehner in a chamber that values team players. When lawmakers chose a new speaker to follow Gingrich, his top rival, former Rep.Tom DeLay of Texas, was seen as too divisive. They eventually chose Rep. J. Dennis Hastert of Illinois.

"When you're on a team, everybody should be trying to help the quarterback," the Republican strategist said. "Nobody likes the guy who looks like he's trying to call his own plays."
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We have a taxing problem, not just a spending problem


Posted at 09:34 AM ET, 07/12/2011


By 

The Bush tax cuts were not supposed to last forever. Alan Greenspan, whose oracular endorsement was perhaps the single most decisive event in their passage, made it very clear that they were a temporary solution to a temporary surplus. “Recent data significantly raise the probability that sufficient resources will be available to undertake both debt reduction and surplus-lowering policy initiatives,” Greenspan said in 2001.
Okay, so maybe he wasn’t so clear. But everyone knew what he meant. And, broadly speaking, they agreed. We had a big surplus. It was time to do something with it. Brad DeLong, a former Clinton administration official and an economist at the University of California at Berkeley, didn’t want to see the surplus spent on tax cuts. He wanted to see it spent on public investments. “Nevertheless,” he wrote in 2001, “it is hard to disagree with Greenspan’s position that — if our future economic growth is as bright as appears likely— it will be time by the middle of this decade to do something to drastically cut the government’s surpluses.”
Ten years later, there is no surplus. It turned out that our future economic growth wasn’t as bright as had seemed likely in 2001. That, plus $2 trillion in tax cuts and a few trillion more in wars and assorted spending, left us with large and growing deficits.
The next step, then, is obvious. The Bush tax cuts were scheduled to expire after 10 years. Congress extended them for two years in 2010, as you don’t want a massive tax increase in the middle of a deep recession. But as we look toward our future deficits, it seems we’ll need to let at least some of the tax cuts expire. Indeed, Greenspan now says we should let all of the Bush tax cuts expire.
But the Republican Party refuses to let any of them expire. And forget admitting that tax cuts meant for surpluses don’t make sense during deficits; they refuse to admit that tax cuts have anything to do with deficits at all.
It’s this belief that stands in the way of a debt deal. “We have a spending problem, not a taxing problem,” Republicans say. If the federal government defaults on Aug. 2, that sentence will be to blame. What a shame, then, that the sentence is entirely, obviously, wrong.
“I’m an ‘and’ guy, not an ‘or’ guy,” says Donald Marron, who served as an economist in George W. Bush’s White House and now leads the Brookings/Urban Tax Policy Center. If you look at the numbers, it’s easy to see why economists like Marron think we have both a spending problem and a taxing problem. In 2001, revenues were at 19.5 percent of gross domestic product and spending was at 18.6 percent of GDP. That was our surplus. In 2010, revenues were at 14.9 percent of GDP while spending was at 23.9 percent. That’s our deficit: Revenues are down and spending is up. It’s “and,” not “or.”
If you’re worried about the deficit, then, the solution is plain: some mix of tax increases and spending cuts. If Democrats are being honest, they’ll tell you they’re worried about the deficit, but that the right time to address the deficit is after a real recovery takes hold, which means we shouldn’t begin serious deficit reduction until 2013 or later. If Republicans are being honest, they’ll tell you they’re worried about the deficit, but resisting tax increases is their top priority, because keeping taxes low means that government will shrink.
In practice, empirical analyses have found that tax rates do not drive the long-term growth in government. But it is driving Republican strategy on the budget. That’s why the GOP preferred a $2 trillion deficit reduction deal with no taxes to a $4 trillion deficit deal that would have included some taxes, but also, according to reports out of both parties, raised the Medicare eligibility age and cut Social Security benefits.
In rejecting that deal, which liberals would have loathed, Speaker of the House John Boehner (R-Ohio) might have inadvertently saved President Obama from facing a primary challenge. But more to the point, he might have locked in higher taxes down the road. Few noticed that the White House offer of $1 trillion in revenues in return for $3 trillion of spending cuts would have taken the expiration of the Bush tax cuts off of the table. That would mean the tax debate concluded this year, a time when the debt ceiling gives the GOP leverage, rather than next year, when the Bush tax cuts are set to expire and the White House has most of the leverage.
In other words: If Republicans could have agreed with Democrats now, taxes would have gone up by $1 trillion. If they can’t agree with Democrats next year, they’ll go up by more than $4 trillion. And Republicans had a better hand this year than they will next year. I expect they’ll come to wish they’d played it.
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It's a furnace-like feeling across central, southern states

Heat index to reach 115 degrees in some areas; Chicago hit by strong storm

 

Image: Fan cools children at gym in Oklahoma City
Sue Ogrocki  /  AP
A fan at the Salvation Army Boys and Girls Club of Oklahoma City, Okla., helped to cool things off.
msnbc.com staff and news service reports
updated 7/11/2011 6:45:43 PM ET


DALLAS — Sweltering summer temperatures topped 100 degrees in many areas Monday as excessive heat warnings gripped 17 states. Oklahoma City saw its 12th day in a row of heat at 100 or above.

In some parts, it felt like 115 when the heat index was factored in.

Heat advisories were in place from Georgia to Illinois and back down to Oklahoma. where the heat index could make it feel like triple digits, the National Weather Service reported.

The heat index measures how hot it really feels when relative humidity is factored in with actual air temperature.

Forecasters warned that the extreme heat could continue for most of the week and perhaps beyond. At the same time, many people won't be able to cool off by taking a dip: Swimming pools in some cities have closed because of budget cuts.

For Tuesday, the National Weather Service issued heat advisories for much of the East Coast, from Georgia to Connecticut, where temperatures are expected in the upper 90s but will feel as hot as 105 because of the humidity.

"It says a lot when you are dealing with such an expansive area of heat alerts," said National Weather Service spokesman Chris Vaccaro.

Storm hits Chicago hard
The Chicago area, where the temperature reached 91, also got hit by a storm packing 75 mph winds that shut down O'Hare and Midway airports to all flights Monday morning for about 45 minutes.

Fallen trees downed power lines across northern Illinois, cutting power to more than 800,000 electricity customers.
Nam Y. Huh / AP
Damage from the Chicago-area storm included this scene in Waukegan, Ill.

"It's one for our record books," Tony Hernandez, a spokesman for the utility company ComEd, said of the outage numbers.

The storm system even triggered a brief warning that a tidal wave-like surge could hit the Illinois side of Lake Michigan.

The National Weather Service warned people to stay out of the water and residents to be prepared to "take appropriate action to protect life and property."Story: 852,000 lose power in Chicago-area storms

Hutchinson, Kan., had reached 103 by Monday afternoon after hitting a scorching 112 on Sunday. (Records haven't been kept there long enough to tell if it was a new high for the date.) The mercury hit 99 in Joplin, Mo., by the afternoon after topping out on Sunday at 106, breaking the record of 104 for the date, set in 1980.

Oklahoma City has hit 100 degrees or higher — 110 on Saturday — every day since June 29, including Monday, making it 13 in a row. The record there is 22 consecutive days of 100 degree-plus weather, set in 1936.

In Kansas City, Mo., an excessive heat warning accompanied a possible heat index of 110. That warning extends through Tuesday night and the heat wave itself started on Sunday. What's it feel like there? NBC affiliate KSHB-TV summed it up in one word: furnace.

In Granite City, Ill., on Sunday, a 51-year-old man died of heat stroke in a mobile home without a working air conditioner.

Hot but no heat advisory in Dallas
Dallas recorded its 10th-straight day of 100-degree weather Monday. The city hit 100 for nearly three straight weeks as recently as 2006, and National Weather Service meteorologist Jesse Moore said the city isn't even technically under a heat advisory because the area is used to these temperatures. In 1980, the city endured 42 days in a row of 100-degree-and-over heat.

Triple-digit highs are expected through the weekend in Dallas, and there is little chance of rain to cool things down.

"It's breaking daily records, but when you're talking about a record string of days — we're not there yet," Vaccaro said. "We're in the midst of a heat wave that's not over yet."

On Monday, 87-year-old R.F. Lanham was taking the heat in stride as he picked weeds in his shaded front yard in Dallas. "I've seen a lot of hot summers," he said.

As 40-year-old Sally Smith loaded two of her children into her minivan as she left a spin class at a Dallas YMCA, she said that even though she had lived in Texas for 18 years, the hot weather was hard to get used to.

"You feel like your skin is baking," the Michigan native said.

Story: Drought in 14 states means disaster for many

In Fort Worth, all of the city's pools are closed because of budget cuts. Through a partnership with the YMCA, Fort Worth residents can swim at four of its pools for two hours a day without a membership.

Authorities said a 51-year-old man suffered heat stroke and died Sunday because his mobile home in Granite City, Ill., had no working air conditioner. His body temperature was 104 when he arrived at the hospital.

In Tahlequah, Okla., 56-year-old David Vaughan, who works construction at water treatment plants, said he was using survival skills he learned while working in Kuwait.

"In Kuwait, we had a saying: Walk slow and drink a lot of water," he said.

In El Paso, Texas, 67-year-old Jesus Franco was the grateful recipient of a fan from the Texas Department of Family and Protective Services. Franco, who is blind, said that he had a small air conditioning unit installed in his home last week, but even then, "at night it gets so hot you can't sleep."

As the stream of air cooled his shirtless torso Monday, he said, "This is much nicer."

Felix Cabrera, an employee of the agency giving out the fans, said: "With so many people unemployed and the population getting older, we are getting more calls."

In New Orleans, the heat was, as usual, heavy and suffocating — but just under 95 degrees, cool enough to allow the mule-drawn carriages to continue riding through the French Quarter. When the mercury hits 95, tourist guides are prohibited from working their mules.

Lorna Taylor, a guide and horse trainer, kept a close eye on her mule, Elvis. She threw snacks into his trough to force him to dunk his head in the water. But she wasn't worried.

"Mules are desert-dwellers," she said, sweat glistening on her brow. "So this is a walk in the park."

All-Star heat
In Phoenix, Ariz., where temperatures have been in the 100s and 90s, most of the Major League Baseball All-Star Game's activities on Monday and Tuesday will be indoors. But the players will be out on the streets Tuesday for a short parade.

Parishioners at a Phoenix-area church sweltered through services over the weekend when someone stole two of the church's three air conditioners. The units weighed 5 tons each.

The third unit did little to cool the building Sunday, which saw temperatures around 100 degrees at mid-day.

Air conditioner thieves typically will tear up the units and sell off copper parts and compressors.PhotoBlog: View, discuss weather photos

So how is this summer comparing to past years? Weather.com provided these examples of extreme heat:

Oklahoma City, Okla.
21 100-degree days for 2011 through July 10 — more than double the annual average of 10;
Sunday was the 11th consecutive day with 100-degree temperatures;
Saturday's high of 110 was the hottest since early July 1996;
Most 100-degree days in a year: 50 in 1980.

Wichita, Kan.
18 100-degree days through July 10 — the annual average is 14;
Sunday's high reached 111 — the hottest day there since 1980;
Most 100-degree days in a year: 50 in 1936.

Dallas, Texas
16 100-degree days through July 10 —the annual average is 18 days;
Most 100-degree days in a year: 69 in 1980.

Austin, Texas

27 100-degree days through July 10 —more than double the annual average of 12 days;
Most 100-degree days in a year: 69 in 1925.

The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.

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