Why? you ask. Shell is active all over the world. Nigeria oil rigs are by Royal Dutch Shell
Shell uses scenarios to explore the future. Our
scenarios are not mechanical forecasts. They recognise that people hold
beliefs and make choices that can lead down different paths. They reveal
different possible futures that are plausible and challenge people’s
assumptions. Our latest publication, Signals and Signposts, considers
how events have unfolded since the 2008 publication of our Shell Energy
Scenarios to 2050 and offers our understanding of the changes brought
about by the global economic crisis.
Never before has humanity faced such a
challenging outlook for energy and the planet. This can be summed up in
five words: “more energy, less carbon dioxide”.
To help think about the future of energy, we have developed two
scenarios that describe alternative ways it may develop. In the first
scenario – called Scramble – policymakers pay little attention to more
efficient energy use until supplies are tight.
Likewise,
greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are
major climate shocks. In the second scenario – Blueprints – growing
local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development,
energy security and environmental pollution. A price is applied to a
critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of
clean energy technologies, such as carbon dioxide capture and storage,
and energy efficiency measures. The result is far lower carbon dioxide
emissions.
We are determined to provide energy in responsible ways and serve our
customers and investors as effectively as we can. Both these scenarios
help us do that by testing our strategy against a range of possible
developments over the long-term.
However, in our view, the
Blueprints’ outcomes offer the best hope for a sustainable future,
whether or not they arise exactly in the way we describe. I am convinced
they are possible with the right combination of policy, technology and
commitment from governments, industry and society globally. But
achieving them will not be easy, and time is short. We urgently need
clear thinking, huge investment, and effective leadership. Whatever your
role in this, I hope these scenarios will help you understand better
the choices you face.
Jeroen van der Veer, who retired as Chief Executive of Shell on June 30, 2009
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Meeting demand
Smart technology thinking is helping meet growing global energy demand.
Humanity is entering an era of “volatile
transitions” as the effects of energy consumption on the environment
become increasingly clear. This will impact political decision-making,
the economy and the choices people make about the way they live.
Effective collaboration between society, politicians and businesses will
be vital in positively influencing how these transitions play out.
For almost half a century, Shell scenarios have helped us to gain a
deeper understanding of global developments and the world’s energy
supply, use and needs. They help us to make crucial choices in uncertain
times as we grapple with tough energy and environmental issues.
Three
years ago, we made public our Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050. These
scenarios addressed the challenges facing the world and influenced our
own strategic direction. To ensure we continue playing a constructive
and responsible role in the global energy and environmental debate, we
must listen to others. We must also continue to share our best
understanding of what we believe the future holds.
Uploaded by
Shell
on
Feb 14, 2011
Shell has published an update to its
'Energy Scenarios to 2050' document. 'Signals & Signposts' examines
how the global financial crisis and move towards recovery has affected
energy outlooks. In this video, Shell's Vice President, Business
Environment, Jeremy Bentham, explains Shell's latest thinking.
Our energy
scenarios - Scramble and Blueprints - remain a credible vision of what
may lie ahead. This new booklet - Signals & Signposts - updates our
thinking by taking into account the impact of the global economic and
financial crisis.
Over the next four decades, the world’s energy
system will see profound developments. Heightened collaboration between
civil society and the public and private sectors is vital if we want to
address economic, energy and environmental challenges.
Partnerships
must be grounded in commercial reality, but energy and environmental
developments have to accelerate in the right direction. We must widen
and deepen the debate across industry and geographical boundaries. With
policy drift and increasing challenges to market-based solutions, we
must focus on policies that deliver affordable solutions now and
technological advances for the future.
Some preferred energy
solutions will only be affordable and available at scale tomorrow.
Others are available now and will remain attractive. For example, I
firmly believe that natural gas must make a growing contribution. The
global supply picture for this low-carbon fuel has improved considerably
over the past few years.
I trust you will find Signals &
Signposts stimulating, thought-provoking and useful. I hope it will help
you seek collaborative opportunities. I hope it will also help you
embrace, rather than shy away from, the challenges which lie ahead.
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