Senate Budget Committee Chairman Sen. Kent Conrad( D-N.D.) is a member of the Gang of Six. (Alex Brandon - AP)Can the Gang of Six's plan pass? There are two answers to that question. The first is "not before the debt limit comes due." The second is, "probably not after that, either."
The Gang of Six's plan -- here's the whole proposal (pdf), here's my summary of its provisions -- though fairly detailed for this sort of thing, hasn't been drafted into legislation yet. It hasn't been sent to the Congressional Budget Office. The rest of the Senate -- much less the House -- hasn't been briefed on it in detail, with staffs answering questions back-and-forth and legislators reaching out to the people they trust for analysis. There's a lot of work left to be done here. Too much for it to wrap up by August 2nd. Even Sen. Dick Durbin, a founding member of the Gang and a generally optimistic guy, admitsthat the proposal can't be finished and sold to his colleagues within the next two weeks.
And after that? It's harder to say. The Obama administration offered Republicans a $4 trillion grand bargain that, if anything, included less in new taxes, but otherwise would have looked quite similar to the Gang of Six's proposal. They rejected it. It's possible that Republicans are looking at the latest polls and reconsidering their intransigence, or perhaps they're simply more favorably inclined towards a proposal written by Sen. Tom Coburn than one outlined by President Barack Obama. I've also heard that there are a number of Senate Republicans frustrated with the House GOP's negotiating stance and anxious to do something bigger than Majority Leader Eric Cantor would prefer. But none of these arguments strike me as gamechangers, particularly considering that the Gang of Six's proposal will have to pass the House as well as the Senate.
Further complicating matters is the fact that if the Gang of Six proposal can't pass by the time the debt ceiling needs to be lifted, then the deal to lift the debt ceiling, which seems likely to include at least $1.5 trillion in spending cuts, will have used up many of the cuts in the Gang of Six's plan. And with those cuts gone, it's not clear why the GOP would sign onto a plan that now includes a higher proportion of taxes to spending cuts, and nor is it clear that Democrats would accept the sort of deep gashes you would have to make in the state to find another $1.5 trillion in cuts that could replace them.
I don't want to be too pessimistic here. The political system's reaction to the plan has been surprisingly positive. But over the last year, pessimism has tended to be the right stance towards the real-world prospects of these sorts of plans.
Five in the morning
1) The Gang of Six's debt plan is out and gaining steam, report Lori Montomery and Rosalind Helderman: "President Obama and lawmakers in both parties latched on to a new strategy for reducing the federal debt Tuesday, saying an emerging plan to save $3.7 trillion over the next decade could help break a political impasse over the debt limit and avert a U.S. default. The proposal, crafted by a bipartisan group of senators known as the 'Gang of Six,' calls for $500 billion in immediate savings and requires lawmakers in the coming months to cut agency spending, overhaul Social Security and Medicare, and rewrite the tax code to generate more than $1 trillion in fresh revenue. In the works since January, the plan became public Tuesday, just as it was becoming apparent that the leading option for raising the federal debt limit faces bleak prospects in the House."
2) My summary of the proposal's features is here. The conclusion: "We're effectively seeing something of a do-over. Simpson-Bowles didn't really get the support of any of the senators on the committee. They all said they wanted to make changes. Now, they have. Many politicians — a number of them on the right — blasted President Obama for dismissing the Simpson-Bowles plan rather than making it his own. In remarks this afternoon, he said the Gang of Six's product is "consistent" with his principles and made it pretty clear that if the House and Senate agree on a variant of this plan, he'll sign it. So what we have here is a bipartisan deficit-reduction plan that hits the $4 trillion target — or at least gets very close — and carries presidential support. Now we find out if such a thing can actually pass."
3) The plan won't be ready in time to prevent default, report Alexander Bolton and Erik Wasson: "Key Senate Democrats on Tuesday said the Gang of Six’s $3.7 trillion deficit-reduction proposal could not be included in a package to raise the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling by Aug. 2. Senate Democratic whip Dick Durbin (Ill.), a member of the Gang of Six, said Tuesday the group’s plan is not ready to be attached to legislation to increase the debt limit. 'The Gang of Six plan has not been drafted nor has it been scored by the CBO -- it’s not ready for prime time,' Durbin said, making reference to the Congressional Budget Office. 'But as a concept, I think we have the starting concepts together, and that’s what we presented today.' 'What we’re trying to do is to build these concepts into a long-term debt-reduction' plan, Durbin said."
4) House Democrats will oppose any entitlement cuts as part of the debt deal, reports Mike Lillis: "The second-ranking House Democrat on Tuesday threw his weight behind the party's blanket opposition to entitlement benefit cuts in a debt-ceiling deal. Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) said it was the consensus of Democrats to oppose any benefit cuts under Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid...As recently as last week, the Democratic whip was being careful not to rule out any policy options during the contentious debt talks -- a position shared by President Obama...By going on the record opposing entitlement benefit cuts, Hoyer has aligned himself with more liberal House Democrats like Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who has been clear from the start of the debate that she's open to entitlement reforms, but not benefit cuts. "
5) Voters think both sides aren't compromising, report Dan Balz and Jon Cohen: "Majorities of Americans see both President Obama and congressional Republicans as not willing enough to compromise in their budget negotiations, but the public views the GOP leaders as particularly intransigent, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. There is also growing dissatisfaction among Republicans with the hard-line stance of their congressional representatives: Fifty-eight percent say their leaders are not doing enough to strike a deal, up from 42 percent in March. While Republicans in Congress have remained united in their opposition to any tax increases, the poll finds GOP majorities favoring some of the specific changes advocated by the president, including higher income tax rates for the wealthiest Americans."
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