Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Obama tours Sandy disaster in NJ -- 'going to be here for the long haul'

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Some areas along the New Jersey coastline will be without power for another week and the water may be turned off as well. NBC's Ron Allen reports.

Doug Mills / AFP - Getty Images

President Barack Obama flies over Seaside Heights, N.J., on Wednesday.

By Miguel Llanos, NBC News

New in this version: LaGuardia Airport to reopen Thursday; U.S. declares public health emergency in N.Y.
Updated at 6:37 p.m. ET: President Barack Obama surveyed New Jersey's battered coastline Wednesday, saying the federal government was "going to be here for the long haul" as the state and 15 others dealt with cleanup and power failures two days after Superstorm Sandy tore through.

M. Alex Johnson, Jim Miklaszewski and Ali Weinberg of NBC News; NBC 4 in New York, The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.

After a helicopter tour, Obama visited residents in hard-hit Brigantine, where he made his promise of long-term support for areas devastated across the Northeast.
"We are here for you, and we will not forget," he added.
He was shown around by Gov. Chris Christie, a Republican and vocal backer of presidential challenger Mitt Romney who nevertheless has praised Obama and the federal response to the storm.
Related: Political side to Obama, Christie mutual praise
"We will get up and get this rebuilt," Christie said in remarks with Obama at his side.
Christie earlier had said he would ask the president to direct the Army Corps of Engineers to figure out how to rebuild beaches to better protect devastated areas.

President Barack Obama witnessed the extent of the damage during a visit to the devastated New Jersey coastline Wednesday. NBC's Lester Holt reports.

President Barack Obama surveyed New Jersey's battered coastline on Wednesday, saying the federal government was "going to be here for the long haul," as the state and 15 others dealt with cleanup and power outages two days after Superstorm Sandy tore through.
After a helicopter tour, Obama visited residents in hard-hit Brigantine, where he made his promise of long-term support.
He was shown around by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a Republican and vocal backer of presidential challenger Mitt Romney who nevertheless has praised Obama and the federal response to the storm.

"We're going to work together to make sure we get ourselves through this crisis," Christie said after Obama's remarks.
Christie earlier said he would ask the president to task the Army Corps of Engineers with how "to rebuild the beach to protect these towns."
But, he added, "it won't be the same because some of the iconic things are washed into the ocean."
Christie on Wednesday ordered that Halloween trick-or-treating be moved to Monday due to unsafe conditions. Aerial footage of the coastline Wednesday morning showed mile after mile of destruction: a neighborhood on fire, others swamped by sand and evacuations still happening in places with high water.

NBC's Lester Holt walks through a destroyed restaurant in Point Pleasant Beach, N.J., which has been completely filled with sand by Sandy.

Recovery operations on Wednesday got a boost from the Navy, which ordered three helicopter carrier ships to the New Jersey and New York coasts, officials told NBC News.
The USS Wasp, USS Carter Hall, and USS Mesa Verde will provide landing platforms for Coast Guard, National Guard and civilian agency helicopters if needed, the officials said, adding that the Atlantic Fleet command made the decision in the name of "prudent planning."
Wall Street reopened Wednesday, as did some airports, but 5.7 million homes and businesses -- two thirds in New Jersey and New York -- still were without power Wednesday afternoon.

Aerial footage reveals devastation from New York City to North Carolina's Outer Banks.

Two days after landfall, Sandy was still impacting areas from the Atlantic coast to as far inland as Chicago:

Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius declared a public health emergency for New York, helping to make sure Medicare, Medicaid and children's health beneficiaries continue to receive services.About 500 patients at New York City's Bellevue Hospital were evacuated to other hospitals after floodwaters crippled its equipment and power supply.
Some 500 patients at New York City's Bellevue Hospital were being evacuated Wednesday after lab equipment was damaged by floodwater.
Three of seven flooded East River tunnels in New York City were cleared of water on Wednesday, and some subway service was set to resume Thursday. Full bus service was restored, as was some train service.
New York City schools will be closed the rest of the week, Mayor Michael Bloomberg said.
90 percent of Long Island was without power and it could take up to 10 days to restore all service, Rep. Steve Israel, D-N.Y., told MSNBC.
Sewage was backing up into homes near a flooded sewage plant in Long Island's Nassau County. An official feared it could spread to thousands of homes.
The U.N. Security Council had to relocate because of water damage to parts of U.N. headquarters in Manhattan.
Fires that destroyed more than a dozen homes in a New Jersey shore town rekindled overnight due to natural gas leaks, NBCNewYork.com reported. Other communities up and down the coast also saw fires destroy homes.
National Guard troops were evacuating flooded neighborhoods in Hoboken, N.J., NBCNewYork.com reported. "About 20,000 people still remain in their homes, and we're trying to put together an evacuation plan, get the equipment here," Mayor Dawn Zimmer told MSNBC Tuesday night.
New Jersey's barrier islands were literally reshaped by the surge of water, NBC's Al Roker reported.
More than three feet of snow had fallen in parts of West Virginia, where 225,000 homes and businesses were without power Wednesday morning. Red House, Md., saw 30 inches of snow.
In Chicago, forecasters warned that high waves and flooding are possible on the Lake Michigan shore on Wednesday. Sandy caused waves up to two stories high on the Great Lakes Tuesday, forcing cargo ships -- some longer than three football fields -- to seek shelter. "We don't stop for thunderstorms and flurries," said Glen Nekvasil, spokesman for lake cargo association. "But this was just too much."
In New Haven, Conn., Sandy blew down a tree that uprooted human remains and what appeared to be a time capsule.

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

The National Guard arrived Wednesday in Hoboken, N.J., rescuing the elderly trapped inside their homes and delivering food and supplies. NBC's Katy Tur reports.

Interactive storm trackerSandy leaves trail of destruction, disbelief
Sandy has claimed at least 47 lives in the U.S., after killing at least 71 in the Caribbean.
In New Jersey, aerial footage Wednesday showed fires raging among storm-damaged homes and sand pushed inland, with TODAY's Natalie Morales reporting from the air that she counted some 25 separate points of flame.
Boats that Morales said had been "tossed as if toys" could be seen piled up next to wrecked houses in the area.

The National Guard has arrived in Hoboken, N.J., to give much-needed help to people trapped in their homes by flooding. Many of the city's streets are still under multiple feet of water. NBC's Natalie Morales takes an aerial view.

In Hoboken, across from Manhattan, live wires dangled in floodwaters that were rapidly mixing with sewage.
The lower half of Manhattan remained without power after a transformer explosion at a Con Edison substation Monday night.

Slideshow: Sandy slams into East Coast

Superstorm Sandy made landfall Monday evening on a destructive and deadly path across the Northeast.

Launch slideshow

Two of the area's three major airports -- Kennedy in New York and Newark Liberty -- reopened with limited service on Wednesday. New York's LaGuardia Airport was flooded and remained closed. Nearly 19,000 flights have been canceled since Sunday.
Sunday’s New York Marathon is still on, but flying in runners from out of town will be tricky. The National Basketball Association canceled the season-opening game between the New York Knicks and the Brooklyn Nets on Thursday, because of damage around the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
NBC Pentagon correspondent Jim Miklaszewski as well as Reuters and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
More content from NBCNews.com:

NYPD

Artur Kasrpzak, a six-year NYPD veteran, died Monday night while helping family members to safety inside his flooded Staten Island home, according to police.

Off-duty NYPD officer dies saving his family from Sandy

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By NBC News staff

Friends, family and colleagues are mourning an off-duty New York City police officer who died while helping seven family members to safety inside his flood-ravaged home on Staten Island during superstorm Sandy.

Officer Artur Kasprzak, 28, died Monday night in the basement of his flooded home.
In a statement, the NYPD gave the following account:

As flood water surged into the house, Officer Kasprzak was able to get six adults and a 15-month-old boy into his attic to escape the rapidly rising water. Officer Kasprzak then told one of the women he was going to check the basement, but would be right back.
After he did not return, she called 911 to report Officer Kasprzak missing. NYPD Emergency Service and SCUBA units quickly responded, but could not access the home due to down, electrified power lines in the water. A search commenced as soon as the house was safe to enter.
At approximately 7 a.m. Tuesday, Officer Kasprzak's body was located, unconscious and unresponsive, in the basement. EMTs pronounced him dead at the scene.

Kasrpzak, a six-year NYPD veteran, was assigned to the 1st Precinct in Manhattan.
“We offer condolences and prayers for Police Officer Kasprzak's family and all those who are suffering losses as a result of the storm, and extended deep appreciation for those working selflessly to help others,” the NYPD said. “They and Artur will never be forgotten.”
"He was a brave guy," a friend, Tommy Krol, 29, told the New York Daily News. "He loved being a cop. He loved his job.”
At least 26 Sandy-related deaths have been reported in New York City as of Wednesday, according to NBCNewYork.com.

Obama and Christie's shared praise far from unusual

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and President Obama talk after flying over damaged communities and talking with residents, saying they are determined to rebuild as quickly as possible.

By Michael O'Brien, NBC News

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New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has adamantly insisted that presidential politics are the furthest thing from his thoughts during the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, though that hasn’t stopped some from filtering his praise for President Barack Obama through a political prism.
The pugnacious New Jersey governor, who supports Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney over Obama this fall (and delivered the keynote address at Romney’s nominating convention), has heaped effusive praise on Obama’s handling of Hurricane Sandy, the massive superstorm to wreak havoc in the northeast, and especially the Jersey Shore.

Larry Downing / Reuters

President Barack Obama and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie talk with survivors of Hurricane Sandy in a community center while touring damaged areas in Brigantine, New Jersey, October 31, 2012.

“I want to thank the president for coming here today. It's really important to have the president of the United States acknowledge all the suffering that's going on here in New Jersey and I appreciate it very much,” Christie said this afternoon as he and Obama toured the devastation. “We're going to work together to make sure we get ourselves through this crisis and get everything back to normal.”
Obama was similarly complimentary, telling people at the Brigantine community center that Christie, who is up for re-election next year in deep-blue New Jersey, “is working overtime to make sure that as soon as possible everybody can get back to normal.”
The two appeared together, along with the New Jersey congressional delegation, following their tours to give similar remarks on camera.

Mitt Romney has continued to push full-speed ahead with his campaign in the battleground state of Florida this morning. The president's campaign team is charting the political course ahead while he tours some of the worst damage in New Jersey. Jen Psaki, Obama traveling press secretary, discusses.

The mutual praise is an outgrowth of both leaders’ handling of a natural disaster, but it coincides with a crucial juncture in the presidential campaign, with just days to go until Election Day. Obama is trying to preserve an advantage in swing states as Romney barnstorms the country in an effort to subsume the incumbent president.
Christie rebuffed suggestions on Tuesday that there were political implications to his work with the administration.
"I've got 2.4 million people out of power. I've got devastation on the shore. I've got floods in the northern part of my state,” he said on Fox News. “If you think right now I give a damn about presidential politics then you don't know me."
And the Romney campaign gave Christie a pass for his work with Obama on Wednesday, dismissing a question about whether the GOP nominee was annoyed by the New Jersey governor’s praise for the president.
“Gov. Christie's doing his job. He's the governor of the state that's been hit by a very, very horrific storm,” Romney adviser Russ Schriefer said in a conference call with reporters. “He's doing exactly what he's supposed to be doing as governor of New Jersey. And the president is doing what he needs to be doing as president.”
That won’t necessarily stop observers from searching for political implications in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, especially so close to Nov. 6.
“I am hesitant to kind of make political calculations about the impact of an event that resulted in the deaths of 50 people and the loss of $50 billion in property,” senior Obama campaign adviser David Axelrod said on a separate conference call this morning. “This was a disaster of huge proportions, and the president is doing what his responsibilities require -- and that includes going to New Jersey, as is what he's done in the case of every major disaster during the course of his presidency, to offer the support of the people of our country, to tour the scene himself, to speak firsthand with the first responder and the elected officials at the scene.”

Slideshow: On the campaign trail

Reuters, Getty Images

In the final push in the 2012 presidential election, candidates Mitt Romney and Barack Obama make their last appeals to voters.

Launch slideshow

Obama will return to the campaign trail on Thursday after canceling three days’ worth of political events. And Romney on Wednesday was mostly tentative in attacking Obama, opting instead for a softer tone and words of encouragement for recovery efforts in the northeast.
Axelrod suggested that the storm essentially washed out several days of campaigning, during which point there was no movement in the jockeying between Romney and the president.
“Wherever you think this race is, it tended to freeze the race because people are focused on the storm,” he said. “That's what's been in the news; normally the election would have been in the news. So I think it's fair to say that that is the case.”
But as a series of polls suggest Romney is trailing in some battleground states, those days might also be crucial opportunities lost.

New York's Bellevue Hospital evacuates patients as power stays cut

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By Maggie Fox, NBC News

Bellevue Hospital, New York City’s flagship public hospital, started evacuating about 500 patients who had stuck it out during Sandy’s winds and flooding on Wednesday. The hospital has been on generator power since the storm knocked out power to much of the city of Monday, and it had already transferred patients on ventilators to other hospitals.
The New York Times said people were carrying babies down staircases on Tuesday and described intermittent lights and a smell of fuel permeating the facility. Other hospitals were taking the patients from the hospital, on New York’s East Side.
New York University’s Langone Medical Center had already distributed 300 of its patients to other hospitals amid the chaos caused by the storm.

Alzheimer's patient refused to evacuate

Firm linked to meningitis outbreak recalls all drugs

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Pharmacy-made pregnancy drug under scrutiny after meningitis outbreak

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By Julie Appleby, Kaiser Health News
When a brand-name drug to help prevent premature births was approved last year, its $1,500-a-dose-price alarmed state and private sector insurance officials.
Many restricted use of the FDA-approved Makena in favor of $20- to $40-a-dose versions that had been made for years by pharmacies, saying that would give more women access to the treatment. Federal officials, sympathetic to such arguments, allowed the pharmacies to continue making the unapproved drugs.
But those decisions are now getting a second look following a deadly meningitis outbreak linked to a different pharmacy-made drug that has sickened hundreds of people and killed at least 28. No one has been reported injured by the pregnancy drug knockoffs. But the judgments made about Makena offer a window into the difficult tradeoffs between cost, safety and access sometimes confronted by policymakers and insurers at a time of growing angst over drug prices.
They also highlight the increased role of these pharmacies, some of which have begun to function as de facto drug manufacturers mass producing treatments for asthma, menopause and pain, among other conditions, but with far less oversight. Vials of a compounded version of the injectable pregnancy drug were among the dozens of products recalled by the now-shuttered New England Compounding Center (NECC) in Framingham, Mass., believed to be the source of the fungus-contaminated steroids linked to the meningitis outbreak. Experts say contracting meningitis from the pregnancy drug is unlikely because it’s administered into muscle, not the spine. But a contaminated dose “could cause a local infection,” said Centers for Disease Control and Prevention spokesman Curtis Allen.
More significantly, potency problems might make the drug less effective in preventing a premature birth.
Earlier this year, the FDA investigated complaints by the brand name drugmaker, KV Pharmaceutical, about the quality of some pharmacy-made products. Testing a small number of samples, the agency said in June that a few failed potency tests, but there were no “major safety problems.” At the same time, it advised that “approved drug products, such as Makena, provide a greater assurance of safety and effectiveness than do compounded products.”
That didn’t shake the faith of at least a half dozen state Medicaid programs and some large private insurers, which continue to pay for the less expensive compounds.
Alabama Medicaid officials say they had “not one problem” with the pharmacy-made versions, although they recently began covering Makena after getting deeper discounts from the drugmaker, said Kelli Littlejohn, director of clinical services and support for the state’s Medicaid program.
Neither the federal agency that oversees state Medicaid programs, the state Medicaid directors association, the drug manufacturer or doctors’ groups could say how many state programs restrict access to the FDA-approved drug.
Backlash Over Makena’s Price
Up to 150,000 women in the U.S., at risk of having a repeat pre-term delivery, may be prescribed Makena or the pharmacy-made versions of the progesterone drug. The drug does not prevent premature birth in all those who take it. Tests leading to Makena’s approval found that 37 of 100 women taking Makena still delivered prematurely. But that was an improvement over the control group. Of the 100 women not given the drug, 55 gave birth early.
KV, which did not develop the drug, purchased legal rights to it from another firm for nearly $200 million, and won market exclusivity for seven years. It assumed state Medicaid programs -- and private insurers -- would cover the FDA-approved version and that it would soon recoup its investment.
Almost immediately, however, the drug’s price, called “outlandish” by a March of Dimes official, provoked indignation from doctors’ groups and congressional calls for investigation. In late March, the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services advised state Medicaid programs that they could continue to pay for the cheaper versions of the drug, which have been available since about 2003. The agency did not return calls seeking comment.
On that same day, the FDA issued what many observers saw as an unusual statement, saying that “to support access to this important drug, at this time and under this unique situation,” it would not take enforcement action against pharmacies that properly and safely made similar versions of the drug.
In the past, the FDA had sent warning letters or pursued other action against pharmacies when it could show they were mass producing copies of FDA-approved drugs.
“The FDA does not usually recommend that patients use compounded versions of FDA-approved drugs,” pharmacists Yesha Patel and Martha Rumore say in an article in the July issue of P&T, a journal aimed at physicians, insurers, hospitals and others developing drug coverage policies.
Pharmacists who mix or "compound" drug formulations are allowed to make formulations for individual patients who can't use traditional drugs, but not to mass produce compounds. They are generally overseen by state regulators, not the FDA.
Not long after the FDA statement, financially beleaguered KV lowered its price for Makena to $690 a dose -- bringing the total cost to about $14,490 for a woman who needs 21 doses. For some Medicaid programs, that was still too much.
‘Out of Reach’
“Even at this price, it remains out of reach for state Medicaid programs and the women they cover,” Louisiana Medicaid leaders wrote in a letter to health care providers in April 2011. By covering the pharmacy-made version, they could ensure that more women would receive the treatment, reducing the number of pre-term births in the state. Health officials estimated that a premature baby cost the state Medicaid program $33,433 in the first year of life, versus $3,671 for a full-term infant.
Louisiana still requires doctors to get special approval to prescribe Makena.
Similarly, Texas doctors must show there is no pharmacy able to make or deliver the drug to their offices to get coverage. That policy is now under review, a spokeswoman said.
Before Kentucky doctors may use Makena, Medicaid requires them to show that a woman has had a bad reaction to the compounded version – or had previously tried it and delivered prematurely.
Doctors in Wisconsin must explain why a woman might have trouble with a compounded drug, while doctors in South Carolina must show medical necessity for the branded drug.
“Some of these policies are a little more subtle than others,” said Scott E. Goedeke, a senior vice president with Ther-Rx, KV’s marketing subsidiary. “But they have similar effects: Physicians who want to prescribe the FDA-approved Makena learn from experience that process is so difficult or prohibitive they may stop trying.”
Blaming those policies for its financial troubles – along with what it describes as the FDA’s failure to enforce its market exclusivity for Makena – KV has filed lawsuits against Illinois, South Carolina and Georgia, alleging that the rules expose Medicaid patients to “unapproved compounded versions … of uncertain quality.”
The company won a preliminary injunction against Georgia to keep it from enforcing the coverage rules. In August it filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, a month before its lawsuit against the FDA was dismissed.
Cheaper Versions Favored By Private Insurers
Insurers covering the private market, meanwhile, have a range of rules around the use of Makena. UnitedHealthcare, one of the nation’s largest insurers, says in a policy document that it “continues to support the use of compounded, preservative-free” versions of the drug through “local and national… pharmacies.” However, it also reimburses doctors who choose to prescribe Makena.
Cigna covers Makena, as well as the compounded drugs, according to an April 2012 policy document.
Still, some physicians may feel pressure to prescribe the cheaper versions even when the insurer says it will pay for the brand name drug.
“Most insurance companies say they cover Makena, but they also send letters advising us that in trying to keep down the cost of health care, we are strongly encouraged to use the cheaper alternative, which is the compounded drug,” said Michael Randell, an obstetrician/gynecologist in Atlanta. “Sometimes we can feel forced to comply with wishes of insurance companies, or they might retaliate and take us off their plan.”

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Because Makena contains the same active ingredient, hydroxyprogesterone caproate, as the pharmacy-made drugs, there is little debate over whether the drugs are similarly effective – assuming the compounded version contains active ingredients that are mixed at the correct potency and under sterile conditions.
But as the investigation of NECC demonstrates, potency and purity problems have arisen with pharmacy-made drugs. Oversight of pharmacies is inconsistent at best.
A report this week by Massachusetts Rep. Edward Markey, a Democrat, described the unsanitary conditions there as “just the tip of an industry iceberg that has long needed reform and federal oversight.”
Last week, KV filed a complaint with the U.S. International Trade Commission alleging that the New England center and other pharmacies use active ingredients imported from Chinese factories that are not routinely inspected by the FDA.
Patient advocate Amy Allina at the National Women's Health Network in Washington D.C. puts the blame on KV for overpricing Makena, but believes pharmacies making compounded medications need more oversight.
Noting that regulations follow “tragedies where people die,” she predicted the meningitis fatalities “could be the turning point for compounding pharmacies.”
Kaiser Health News is an editorially independent program of the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, a nonprofit, nonpartisan health policy research and communication organization not affiliated with Kaiser Permanente.
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Electoral College Model Predicts Romney Will Win Even Bigger Than Previously Thought in 2012

In August, TheBlaze told you about University of Colorado Professors Ken Bickers and Michael Berry and their highly-accurate Electoral College prediction model. As you may recall, Bickers and Berry, using their metrics, are able to retroactively predict every presidential win since 1980.
Their 2012 model made headlines two months ago because, despite polling, it found that Republican presidential candidate Romney would win 320 Electoral Votes, stealing the White House away from President Barack Obama. Now, an updated version of their study has come to the same conclusion — but it intensifies the numbers behind a predicted Romney win.
Despite the fact that polls still show a dead-heat race (Obama is currently at 48.2 percent, with Romney capturing 47.3 percent of likely voters in the most recent Real Clear Politics average), an updated election model shows an even larger gap between the Electoral College votes that Romney and Obama are projected to win. According to Bickers and Berry, the Republican challenger is projected to take 330 of the 558 votes, while Obama is expected to capture only 208 of them.

University of Colorado Model: Romney Will Beat Obama in 2012 | Electoral College

US Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney and his wife Ann. Photo Credit: AFP/Getty Images

With 270 as the major number needed for any candidate to win, this clearly shows Obama far from the mark, sending Romney — at least theoretically — to victory come November. While the model did not change, Bickers’ and Berry’s analysis is based on updated economic data, which clearly helped sway the projection even further in Romney’s favor.
The University of Colorado Boulder web site has more about how the model works:

While many election forecast models are based on the popular vote, the model developed by Bickers and Berry is based on the Electoral College and is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. They included economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia. [...]

The Bickers and Berry model includes both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors. The new analysis includes unemployment rates from August rather than May, and changes in per capita income from the end of June rather than March. It is the last update they will release before the election. [...]
In addition to state and national unemployment rates, the authors analyzed changes in personal income from the time of the prior presidential election. Research shows that these two factors affect the major parties differently: Voters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment rates, while Republicans are held more responsible for fluctuations in personal income.

“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers notes. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”

US President Barack Obama speaks during a campaign convert at the Nokia Theater on October 7, 2012 in Los Angeles. Obama is on a three-day trip during which he will campaign in California and Ohio as well as attend the establishment of the Cesar Chavez National Monument. Photo Credit: AFP/Getty Images

According to the prediction, Romney will carry New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. On the flip side, Obama will take Michigan and Nevada.
Of course, Bickers and Berry caution those wedded to the data. Despite being correct for the past eight elections, there are some factors worth noting. The model has an average error rate of five states and 28 Electoral College votes. Plus, states that are close may end up being impacted by unexpected factors not included in the model.
Now, let’s get back to that record of accuracy mentioned earlier in this piece. The state-based economic data used by the researchers has been available since 1980, according to the university’s web site. When the data is applied to past elections, retroactively, it correctly chooses all of the winners. Most notably, it even correctly estimated the 2000 outcome, when Al Gore won the popular vote, but George W. Bush won the Electoral College.
In the end, though, anything is possible. Slight and unexpected changes could turn the entire scenario on its head. Still, the model — considering its viability — is worth paying attention to.

Electoral College Model Predicts Romney Will Win Big in 2012 (And It’s Been Right Since 1980)

University of Colorado Professors Ken Bickers and Michael Berry have quite a set of bragging rights up their sleeve – namely, they’ve devised a mathematical model of the Electoral College that has predicted every Presidential race correctly since Ronald Reagan won the Presidency in 1980.
And despite recent polls showing the presidential race deadlocked both nationally and in key swing states, Bickers and Berry’s model shows a race that isn’t even close. According to them, not only will Mitt Romney win, but he will win big, taking 320 Electoral Votes to President Obama’s 218 – a result almost as decisive as President Obama’s win against Senator John McCain in 2008.

Michael Berry and Ken Bickers of the University of Colorado System Predict Romney to Win 320 Electoral Votes in November

Berry and Bicker's prediction, generated by 270towin

The Huffington Post explains how the model works:

To predict the race’s outcome, the model uses economic indicators from all 50 states and it shows 320 electoral votes for Romney and 218 for Obama, according to The Associated Press. The model also suggests that Romney will win every state currently considered a swing state which includes Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Colorado.[...]
Berry cautions that just because the model has worked in the past, doesn’t mean it will work this time. “As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict,” Berry said in a statement. Some of those factors include the timeframe of the current economic data used in the study (the data used was taken five months before the November election, but Berry and Bickers plan to update it with more current data come September) as well as tight races. States that are very close to a 50-50 split, the authors warn, can fall in an unexpected direction.

Even given the caveats near the end, this is encouraging news for supporters of Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, given that it shows a race where the raw economic data appears to favor a Republican win. Granted, the election is still months away, and given that Berry and Bickers plan to update their model later, this forecast could change.
However, if things stay as they are economically, President Obama could be in for a rout come November.

Live updates on Sandy

con't page 4

Many in the New York area are concerned about when the subways will be able to reopen. The Metropolitan Transportation Authority tweeted Monday night that rumors of a one-week timetable for reopening were only rumors, but did confirm that water had infiltrated subway tunnels. "The MTA cannot assess damage until Tuesday," another tweet said.

statement from MTA Chairman Joseph J. Lhota on Service Recovery The New York City subway system is 108 years old, but it has never faced a disaster as devastating as what we experienced last night. Hurricane Sandy wreaked havoc on our entire transportation system, in every borough and county of the region. It has brought down trees, ripped out power and inundated tunnels, rail yards and bus depots. As of last night, seven subway tunnels under the East River flooded. Metro-North Railroad lost power from 59th Street to Croton-Harmon on the Hudson Line and to New Haven on the New Haven Line. The Long Island Rail Road evacuated its West Side Yards and suffered flooding in one East River tunnel. The Hugh L. Carey Tunnel is flooded from end to end and the Queens Midtown Tunnel also took on water and was closed. Six bus garages were disabled by high water. We are assessing the extent of the damage and beginning the process of recovery. Our employees have shown remarkable dedication over the past few days, and I thank them on behalf of every New Yorker. In 108 years, our employees have never faced a challenge like the one that confronts us now. All of us at the MTA are committed to restoring the system as quickly as we can to help bring New York back to normal.

MTA Weather Advisory

a day ago

Failure of a backup power generator has led to the evacuation of a hospital in New York's Midtown East neighborhood, NBCNewYork.com reports. The NYU Langone Medical Center was transferring about 215 patients, including about 20 infants, to nearby hospitals by ambulance.

NYU Langone Medical Center Evacuated

AP The NYU Langone Medical Center is being evacuated after their backup power generator failed in the midst of an outage, officials say. ...

Nbcnewyork

Ambulances line up to evacuate NYU Hospital. Crazy!#sandy #nyc pic.twitter.com/V16fVhup

Dustin Cadreau

a day ago

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North Bergen, N.J. mayor and state senator Nicholas Sacco reports a fire has broken out at a preschool after a tree downed powerlines at the facility.

A fire has broken out at the North Bergen Pre-School, appears that a tree feel and hit a power line... North Hudson Regional Fire and Rescue and North Bergen police are responding

a day ago

The country's oldest nuclear power plant, which was already closed for maintenance, was placed on alert late Monday after water on the New Jersey coast rose six feet above sea level..

Oyster Creek Nuclear Plant in NJ on Alert

The nation's oldest nuclear power plant is on alert after waters from a colossal storm reached high levels. Oyster Creek in Lacey Townshi...

Nbcnewyork

This widely shared image of floodwaters pouring through the pavilion housing Jane's Carousel in New York's Brooklyn Bridge Park almost seems too eerie to be real, but The Atlantic did some digging and confirms its authenticity. For more Sandy photo fact-checking, click here.

Jane's carousel is basically an island now. Poor horses.

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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Slideshow: Sandy slams into East Coast

Slideshow: On the campaign trail

Electoral College Model Predicts Romney Will Win Even Bigger Than Previously Thought in 2012

Electoral College Model Predicts Romney Will Win Big in 2012 (And It’s Been Right Since 1980)

Live updates on Sandy

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