Pages

Monday, November 8, 2010

What do health insurers want now?


By Suzy Khimm
After coming out against the Affordable Care Act in the final stage of the debate, the health insurance industry backed more Republicans than Democrats this election cycle, betting they'd be better off under a GOP-led Congress. One conundrum is that health insurers strongly support the individual mandate to purchase insurance -- the provision that's become Public Enemy No. 1 for most conservatives who oppose "Obamacare." The industry has also declined to support the GOP's demand to repeal the law. But insurers are guessing -- rightly -- that repeal is exceedingly unlikely, and that it will be up to the courts, not Congress, to decide the fate of the individual mandate anyway. In the meantime, there are other ways the industry would like to gut the law, and they're trying to persuade Republicans -- and some moderate Democrats -- to join them. Politico's Pulse reports:
Insurance industry sources tell PULSE they are waiting for the post-election dust to settle before diving into two main issues: dialing back cuts to Medicare Advantage plans and attacking the $6.7 billion yearly premium tax set to take effect in 2014. The issues resonate with constituent groups that Democrats have arguably had the toughest time getting on board with reform: seniors and small business.
"I think when it becomes very clear to small business owners that they're going to have to pay more for their premiums that becomes a very serious issue," one insurance industry source tells PULSE of soon-to-come efforts to push back against the health premium tax, expected to hit small group plans the hardest.

I suspect that Republicans would be pretty amenable to going after health care on these grounds. During the debate over the bill, the Medicare Advantage cuts were at the heart of the GOP's claim that Democrats were trying to slash entitlement benefits for seniors. Their attacks were misleading: Medicare Advantage plans are actually generously padded private insurance plans -- a Supersized, more costly version of standard Medicare -- that Democrats believed taxpayers shouldn't subsidize so heavily. But together with the charge that the law would create "death panels," the outcry over the Medicare Advantage cuts allowed the GOP to convince the public that bill would be a poison pill for the elderly.
Similarly, labeling the excise tax on the insurance industry as a "tax on small businesses" doesn't give the complete picture. The yearly premium tax is a blanket fee that's placed on the entire insurance industry, starting at $8 billion in 2014 and increasing to $11.3 billion for the three years thereafter, divvied up based on the industry's share of covered lives and market share. In other words, it's a broad-based fee that doesn't single out premiums for small businesses, per se.
According to Peter Harbage, a District-based health policy analyst, the industry will probably argue that it will end up passing such costs onto small businesses disproportionately because of new regulations that require insurers to spend at least 80 percent of premium costs on medical care for individual and small-group plans. (For larger employers, the so-called Medical-Loss Ratio is higher, at 85 percent, which gives insurers less room to increase overhead costs.) But the difference between the two MLR classes isn't much, and to cast the tax as a special burden for small businesses seems more like convenient political strategy than a policy descriptor.
The purpose of the fee itself is pretty straightforward: It's meant to generate revenue to offset the cost of the law, and it's easy to see why industry would be inclined to oppose it. Other private-sector stakeholders — like Pharma and the medical device industry — must pony up similar fees under the ACA, and they aren't thrilled about it, either. The reality is that every stakeholder has to bear some of the burden of offsetting the costs of the law, in exchange for the benefits they'll receive — e.g. a vast new pool of customers for the insurance industry. Whether or not the insurers decide to pass the costs of this excise tax onto small businesses, or any other customers, is a business decision that each company itself will make. And even if they do decide to raise premiums, there are other provisions under the law that will help make health care more affordable for small businesses, including tax credits and the new exchanges that will also be in effect by 2014.*
Democrats defended such provisions passionately when the bill's passage was on the line. But the Democratic Party has since put so much distance between itself and health-care reform -- fearing the repercussions in an election year -- that it's easy to forget that they had ever done so. As a result, the law's opponents have yet again gained the upper hand in messaging, and even Democratic voters don't recognize all that's been accomplished.
That being said, there is an upside to the revival of these Republican and industry-led criticisms of the Affordable Care Act. The renewed attacks give Democrats another opportunity to change the public's understanding of health-care reform -- that is, should they decide to step up to the plate this time and embrace the law instead of trying to disown it.
*Correction: The original post referred to this excise tax as the Cadillac tax on high-cost insurance plans. The tax in question is a different provision.
Suzy Khimm is a reporter in the Washington bureau of Mother Jones. Read more of her work here, and follow her on Twitter.
This post has been corrected since it was first published.

The GOP's Coming Climate Witch Hunt

Scientists are bracing for a new wave of attacks and investigations by the incoming House majority.

Fairness Among Generations At Core of Need for Fiscal Sanity


The Concord Center’s Fiscal Solutions Tour has been bumping around the country for the last month and a half or so, bringing common sense ideas on how we can save ourselves from financial ruin over the next generation or so. At the Tour’s most recent stop, in Philadelphia, the crux of the issue was focused on.

Every dollar we borrow might as well be two dollars (more likely even more than that, if the problem persists and compound interest is able to go to work on even bigger mountains of debt) out of the pockets of your kids, and their children. The image of stealing candy from a baby, or perhaps taking money out of a child’s piggy bank, is the most appropriate I can think of.
They cannot defend themselves, and unless we do, they will come into the workforce with taxes far higher than anything this country has ever seen, a severely cut military, a much weaker social safety net and little to no flexibility in looking for ways to adapt to the complications that the future will assuredly bring.
We needed to start working on this twenty years ago… but the best time to start is now since that didn’t happen. Its not like we haven’t known this was coming. When the President’s bipartisan commission on fiscal responsibility and reform comes out with their report, we need to form the core of the groundswell that forces our politicians to heed those recommendations like they did the 9/11 Commission’s recommendations. We need to start heeding the wise words of President Kennedy, caring more about what we can do for the country, rather than selfishly asking the federal government to do more for us than we are willing to pay for.
We need to unite around our greater angels, instead of the increasingly short sighted partisans that have controlled DC for the last generation.

Common Sense, Long Term Thinking vs Democratic & Republican “Short-termism”

I will say, I’ve been surprised with the British peoples’ warm reception to austerity measures Prime Minister Cameron, and his deputy Nick Clegg, have proposed to bring their debt situation under control. We should be so lucky to have politicians who are willing to be so honest with us.

…Nick Clegg, the deputy prime minister and leader of the Liberal Democrats—the smaller party in the governing coalition—is overjoyed. Recently, he gave a speech in which he explained that tough choices had to be made, so that “we will be able to look our children and grandchildren in the eye and say we did the best for them.”
No matter how you want to try and spin it, every time we pass more spending, and/or cut taxes further, by pulling out the nation’s credit card, we’re sticking the bill to our kids. Its perfectly understandable that we’d have big deficits during a steep recession, but not THIS big, and we had deficits during all but the biggest boom years of the dot com bubble… a time when people were making an unusually high and unsustainable amount of money and we had a split congress that was actually intent on trimming the size of government.
Clegg again…
…his government’s forthcoming austerity budget will value “long-termism” over “short-termism” and eliminate “the dead weight of our debt, and our failings” so that future generations can flourish.
This is the crux of the issue… not just in politics, but in so many other problems our country faces.
People want pills, or quick and painless surgeries, that fix problems they could have avoided altogether if they had just not lived a lifestyle that slowly (or not so slowly) fattened them up, ruined their lungs, clogged their artieries, screwed with their insulin production, or a whole slew of other things we largely control and form the very things that lead to our country having one of the lower age expectancies among first world countries. They also want these treatments to come cheap, and be provided to everyone… and then complain when their insurance bills, and taxes, go up.
Our companies push for short term profits, over long term, solid growth, and many times over honesty with their shareholders. Our country is so good at looking for ways to squeeze short term profits out of people that we’ve even made loan sharks legal, allowing pay day loan “companies” (mobsters/racketeers would be more accurate) to charge rates of interest that should give us all pause, and frankly piss me off. I wonder if we’ll soon make breaking kneecaps for lack of payment legal as well.
…and I don’t think I need to get into the short term thinking that led to the mortgage crisis and our current recession.
But politicians have taken short term thinking to a whole new level. Many people, and some corporations, have let short term thinking bring ruin to themselves and today’s economy, but politicians have been raping and pillaging none other than our childrens’ future.
… and we let them.

GOP’s Rank Hypocrisy Over Entitlement Programs


One of the more strange developments of the last few years, in my mind, has been the flip flop republicans have made in regards to entitlement programs like medicare, medicaid and social security. When I was first getting into politics in college the republican party was still of the mind that these programs needed to be drastically pared back, but it was the republican party that vehemently campaigned against the paring back of Medicare by democrats this cycle.

Not to be chained in by… their own logic, the GOP is now starting to talk about none other than cutting entitlement programs.
The most drastic of this in, not surprisingly, in Texas, where some among the republican caucus there are arguing that the state should drop the Medicaid program altogether. Via Emily Ramshaw at the Texas Tribune:
Far-right conservatives are offering that possibility in post-victory news conferences. Moderate Republicans are studying it behind closed doors. And the party’s advisers on health care policy say it’s being discussed more seriously than ever, though they admit it may be as much a huge in-your-face to Washington as anything else.
And not to be outdone by the Lone Star State, rising stars like Eric Cantor are trying to have their cake and eat it too, by arguing for the repeal of the trimming of subsidies to private Medicare Advantage plans through one side of their mouth, while arguing against out of control spending on the other. This isn’t complicated math… its addition and subtraction. They know they don’t have the votes to repeal much (if any) of the health care reforms passed, so pulling funding out of it only puts us in a deeper hole.
I am totally with them on being against using that trimming to pay for other programs… that money, and more (why are we subsidizing PRIVATE supplemental insurance AT ALL?!?), should indeed be trimmed… but it should go towards lowering the deficit, not towards more spending.
The blindness of the GOP on this is so bad that it leads me to wonder whether they intend to push the government into so much more debt that we’re already looking at over the next generation, that we go bankrupt and are forced to enact Greece style austerity measures. I wouldn’t put it past them… but its just as likely that they are so blinded by their ideology that they genuinely think that cutting taxes will magically pull us out of our deficits and debt problems.

Talk about tea party being absolutely ridiculous

Obama speech Indian Parliament

Gibbs finally stands up or is it Man Up




White House press secretary Robert Gibbs, right, argues with an official from the Indian Prime Minister's office after the travelling White House press pool was refused entry to the bilateral meeting between U.S. President Barack Obama and India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at Hyderabad House in New Delhi on Nov. 8. (Jason Reed / Reuters) 

"neuter" Iran? Mmmmmmmmm..........

Clyburn "underdog: minority whip Pelosi

Nancy Pelosi 1 of 8 House Democrats to Win by Bigger Margin in 2010 than 2008 Only 3 percent of 230 Democratic U.S. House incumbents on the ballot increased their margin of victory in 2010 compared to 2008; Nancy Pelosi had the second largest increase With Democrats on track to lose up to 65 net seats by the time all ballots are counted across the nation's 435 congressional districts, one has to look long and hard to find any good news for the once 255-member caucus as its numbers will be sliced by a quarter come January. However, in the face of the rout endured by the Party overall, a handful of congressional districts actually were more supportive of their Democratic incumbents last Tuesday than during the previous election cycle. Smart Politics calculates just eight Democratic incumbents won by a larger victory margin during the Republican landslide of 2010 than during the Democratic wave of 2008 - including lightning rod (and outgoing) House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who improved by the second largest margin out of the entire Democratic caucus. In 2008, a total of 257 Democrats won their U.S. House contests - 230 of which defended their seats in the 2010 general election. Of the remaining 27 Democrats who won election in 2008: · Two were defeated in the Democratic primaries: Alan Mollohan, WV-01; Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, MI-13 · Seven resigned during or just prior to the 111th Congress: Rahm Emmanuel, IL-05; Kirsten Gillibrand, NY-20; Hilda Solis, CA-32; Ellen Tauscher, CA-10; Robert Wexler, FL-19; Neil Abercrombie, HI-01; Eric Massa, NY-29 · 17 retired or chose to seek higher political office: Artur Davis, AL-07; Marion Berry, AR-01; Vic Snyder, AR-02; Diane Watson, CA-33; Kendrick Meek, FL-17; Brad Ellsworth, IN-08; Dennis Moore, KS-03; Charlie Melancon, LA-03; Bill Delahunt, MA-10; Bart Stupak, MI-01; Paul Hodes, NH-02; Joe Sestak, PA-07; Patrick Kennedy, RI-01; Bart Gordon, TN-06; John Tanner, TN-08; Brian Baird, WA-03; David Obey, WI-07 · One died in office: John Murtha, PA-12 Of the 230 Democratic incumbents who made it on the general election ballot this November, 221 had a smaller margin of victory - or lost their election outright. One incumbent had the same margin of victory as in 2008, and eight incumbents enjoyed a more comfortable victory margin. Overall, these 230 Democrats saw an average erosion of 21.7 points in 2010 from their 2008 victory margins. Who are "The Magnificent Eight?" Bob Brady (PA-01), a 7-term Congressman from Philadelphia (PA-01), leads the way - with an 18.4 point improvement on his victory margin from 2008, although achieving this on a bit of a technicality. In 2008, Brady defeated Republican Mike Muhammad by 81.6 points. In 2010, Brady ran unopposed in his district, winning 100 percent of the vote. Nancy Pelosi's district (CA-08) also rallied around her on November 2nd, increasing her victory margin by 9.5 points from the previous cycle. In 2008, Pelosi defeated her next closest opponent, independent anti-war activist Cindy Sheehan, by 55.7 points, 71.9 to 16.2 percent (Republican Dana Walsh came in third place with 9.7 percent). Last Tuesday, Pelosi received 80.2 percent of the vote, with Republican John Dennis winning just 15.0 percent - for a 65.2-point victory. (Note: the D+35 Partisan Voting Index of Nancy Pelosi's district makes it one of the Top 10 most Democratic districts in the nation). Nine-term Democratic incumbent Nydia Velázquez (NY-12) increased her margin of victory by 7.4 points in 2010, although she did not face a GOP opponent. In 2008, Congresswoman Velázquez defeated Republican Allan Romaguera by 78.4 points. In 2010, Velázquez defeated frequent Conservative Party candidate Alice Gaffney by a 92.9 to 7.1 percent margin, or 85.8 points. One of the more impressive Democratic performances came in Maine's 1st Congressional District, held by freshman Representative Chellie Pingree. Pingree's seat was viewed by some prognosticators as one of several dozen vulnerable Democratic districts in the nation. (Ranked as a 'toss-up' by Charlie Cook and 'Democrat favored' by Stuart Rothenberg). Even still, the Congresswoman eclipsed her 9.2-point win in 2008 over Republican Charles Summers with a 13.6-point victory in 2010 over Dean Scontras. In another tight race involving a northeastern freshman Democrat, James Himes (CT-04) improved on his 3.8-point victory in 2008 (ousting GOP incumbent Chris Shays), with a 6.2-point win over Dan Debicella. Also improving his standing in 2010 was 4-term incumbent David Scott from Georgia's 13th CD. Scott won his safe district by 38.0 points in 2008 over Deborah Honeycutt (69.0 to 31.0 percent) and increased that margin to 41.0 points in 2010, defeating Republican Mike Crane 70.5 to 29.5 percent. Bob Brady's Pennsylvania delegation colleague Chaka Fattah (PA-02) also made the list - winning by 0.8 more points in 2010 (by 78.6 points against GOPer Rick Hellberg) as compared to 2008 (by 77.8 points over Adam Lang). In California's 34th CD, 9-term incumbent Lucille Roybal-Allard also slightly made gains on the Republican opposition in her safe Democratic district. In 2008, Roybal-Allard defeated Christopher Balding by 54.2 points, while on Tuesday she won her 10th term by 54.8 points over Wayne Miller. One other Democratic candidate did not lose ground in 2010. Six-term Democrat Michael Capuano (MA-08) did not face a challenger in either 2008 or 2010, winning 100 percent of the vote each cycle. And as for the remaining 221 members of the Democratic delegation? · Slightly more than 1 in 5 Democratic incumbents lost ground from the 2008 election cycle by less than 10 points, with 50 nominees (21.7 percent) seeing their victory margin decrease by just single digits, including six who saw it translate into a margin of loss: Bobby Bright (AL-02), Tom Perriello (VA-05), Dina Titus (NV-03), John Adler (NJ-03), Mark Schauer (MI-07), and Michael Arcuri (NY-24). · Nearly 3 in 10 incumbents (67 Democrats) saw their margin of victory fall from 2008 by between 10 and 19 points, including 15 who were defeated. · Nearly 1 in 4 incumbents (53 Democrats) endured a drop in their 2008 margin of victory of between 20 and 29 points, including 14 who lost their race. · Another 1 in 3 incumbents (51 Democrats) saw their 2008 margin of victory decline by 30 or more points , including 17 who came up short at the ballot box. And which Democrats went from feast to famine from 2008 to 2010 more than any other? That prize is shared by Rick Boucher (VA-09) and Phil Hare (IL-17). Both incumbents ran unopposed in 2008 - only to be defeated at the ballot box in 2010: Boucher by a 4.8-point margin and Hare by 9.6-points. As a result, both candidates saw a drop in their 2008 victory margin of more than 100 points. Democratic U.S. House Incumbent Change in Victory Margin from 2008 to 2010 Point difference # Percent +10 to 19 points 1 0.4 +0 to 9 points 7 3.0 Even 1 0.4 -0 to 9 points 50 21.7 -10 to 19 points 67 29.1 -20 to 29 points 53 23.0 -30 to 39 points 29 12.6 -40 to 49 points 3 1.3 -50 to 59 points 9 3.9 -60 to 69 points 3 1.3 -70 to 79 points 1 0.4 -80 to 89 points 4 1.7 -90 to 99 points 0 0.0 -100 to 109 points 2 0.9 Total 230 100.0 Table compiled by Smart Politics. Follow Smart Politics on Twitter. Posted by Eric Ostermeier on November 7, 2010 10:06 PM


Only 3 percent of 230 Democratic U.S. House incumbents on the ballot increased their margin of victory in 2010 compared to 2008; Nancy Pelosi had the second largest increase
With Democrats on track to lose up to 65 net seats by the time all ballots are counted across the nation's 435 congressional districts, one has to look long and hard to find any good news for the once 255-member caucus as its numbers will be sliced by a quarter come January.
However, in the face of the rout endured by the Party overall, a handful of congressional districts actually were more supportive of their Democratic incumbents last Tuesday than during the previous election cycle.
Smart Politics calculates just eight Democratic incumbents won by a larger victory margin during the Republican landslide of 2010 than during the Democratic wave of 2008 - including lightning rod (and outgoing) House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who improved by the second largest margin out of the entire Democratic caucus.
In 2008, a total of 257 Democrats won their U.S. House contests - 230 of which defended their seats in the 2010 general election.
Of the remaining 27 Democrats who won election in 2008:
· Two were defeated in the Democratic primaries: Alan Mollohan, WV-01; Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, MI-13
· Seven resigned during or just prior to the 111th Congress: Rahm Emmanuel, IL-05; Kirsten Gillibrand, NY-20; Hilda Solis, CA-32; Ellen Tauscher, CA-10; Robert Wexler, FL-19; Neil Abercrombie, HI-01; Eric Massa, NY-29
· 17 retired or chose to seek higher political office: Artur Davis, AL-07; Marion Berry, AR-01; Vic Snyder, AR-02; Diane Watson, CA-33; Kendrick Meek, FL-17; Brad Ellsworth, IN-08; Dennis Moore, KS-03; Charlie Melancon, LA-03; Bill Delahunt, MA-10; Bart Stupak, MI-01; Paul Hodes, NH-02; Joe Sestak, PA-07; Patrick Kennedy, RI-01; Bart Gordon, TN-06; John Tanner, TN-08; Brian Baird, WA-03; David Obey, WI-07
· One died in office: John Murtha, PA-12
Of the 230 Democratic incumbents who made it on the general election ballot this November, 221 had a smaller margin of victory - or lost their election outright. One incumbent had the same margin of victory as in 2008, and eight incumbents enjoyed a more comfortable victory margin.
Overall, these 230 Democrats saw an average erosion of 21.7 points in 2010 from their 2008 victory margins.
Who are "The Magnificent Eight?"
Bob Brady (PA-01), a 7-term Congressman from Philadelphia (PA-01), leads the way - with an 18.4 point improvement on his victory margin from 2008, although achieving this on a bit of a technicality. In 2008, Brady defeated Republican Mike Muhammad by 81.6 points. In 2010, Brady ran unopposed in his district, winning 100 percent of the vote.
Nancy Pelosi's district (CA-08) also rallied around her on November 2nd, increasing her victory margin by 9.5 points from the previous cycle.
In 2008, Pelosi defeated her next closest opponent, independent anti-war activist Cindy Sheehan, by 55.7 points, 71.9 to 16.2 percent (Republican Dana Walsh came in third place with 9.7 percent). Last Tuesday, Pelosi received 80.2 percent of the vote, with Republican John Dennis winning just 15.0 percent - for a 65.2-point victory. (Note: the D+35 Partisan Voting Index of Nancy Pelosi's district makes it one of the Top 10 most Democratic districts in the nation).
Nine-term Democratic incumbent Nydia Velázquez (NY-12) increased her margin of victory by 7.4 points in 2010, although she did not face a GOP opponent. In 2008, Congresswoman Velázquez defeated Republican Allan Romaguera by 78.4 points. In 2010, Velázquez defeated frequent Conservative Party candidate Alice Gaffney by a 92.9 to 7.1 percent margin, or 85.8 points.
One of the more impressive Democratic performances came in Maine's 1st Congressional District, held by freshman Representative Chellie Pingree.
Pingree's seat was viewed by some prognosticators as one of several dozen vulnerable Democratic districts in the nation. (Ranked as a 'toss-up' by Charlie Cook and 'Democrat favored' by Stuart Rothenberg). Even still, the Congresswoman eclipsed her 9.2-point win in 2008 over Republican Charles Summers with a 13.6-point victory in 2010 over Dean Scontras.
In another tight race involving a northeastern freshman Democrat, James Himes (CT-04) improved on his 3.8-point victory in 2008 (ousting GOP incumbent Chris Shays), with a 6.2-point win over Dan Debicella.
Also improving his standing in 2010 was 4-term incumbent David Scott from Georgia's 13th CD. Scott won his safe district by 38.0 points in 2008 over Deborah Honeycutt (69.0 to 31.0 percent) and increased that margin to 41.0 points in 2010, defeating Republican Mike Crane 70.5 to 29.5 percent.
Bob Brady's Pennsylvania delegation colleague Chaka Fattah (PA-02) also made the list - winning by 0.8 more points in 2010 (by 78.6 points against GOPer Rick Hellberg) as compared to 2008 (by 77.8 points over Adam Lang).
In California's 34th CD, 9-term incumbent Lucille Roybal-Allard also slightly made gains on the Republican opposition in her safe Democratic district. In 2008, Roybal-Allard defeated Christopher Balding by 54.2 points, while on Tuesday she won her 10th term by 54.8 points over Wayne Miller.
One other Democratic candidate did not lose ground in 2010. Six-term Democrat Michael Capuano (MA-08) did not face a challenger in either 2008 or 2010, winning 100 percent of the vote each cycle.
And as for the remaining 221 members of the Democratic delegation?
· Slightly more than 1 in 5 Democratic incumbents lost ground from the 2008 election cycle by less than 10 points, with 50 nominees (21.7 percent) seeing their victory margin decrease by just single digits, including six who saw it translate into a margin of loss: Bobby Bright (AL-02), Tom Perriello (VA-05), Dina Titus (NV-03), John Adler (NJ-03), Mark Schauer (MI-07), and Michael Arcuri (NY-24).
· Nearly 3 in 10 incumbents (67 Democrats) saw their margin of victory fall from 2008 by between 10 and 19 points, including 15 who were defeated.
· Nearly 1 in 4 incumbents (53 Democrats) endured a drop in their 2008 margin of victory of between 20 and 29 points, including 14 who lost their race.
· Another 1 in 3 incumbents (51 Democrats) saw their 2008 margin of victory decline by 30 or more points , including 17 who came up short at the ballot box.
And which Democrats went from feast to famine from 2008 to 2010 more than any other?
That prize is shared by Rick Boucher (VA-09) and Phil Hare (IL-17).
Both incumbents ran unopposed in 2008 - only to be defeated at the ballot box in 2010: Boucher by a 4.8-point margin and Hare by 9.6-points.
As a result, both candidates saw a drop in their 2008 victory margin of more than 100 points.
Democratic U.S. House Incumbent Change in Victory Margin from 2008 to 2010
Point difference
#
Percent
+10 to 19 points
1
0.4
+0 to 9 points
7
3.0
Even
1
0.4
-0 to 9 points
50
21.7
-10 to 19 points
67
29.1
-20 to 29 points
53
23.0
-30 to 39 points
29
12.6
-40 to 49 points
3
1.3
-50 to 59 points
9
3.9
-60 to 69 points
3
1.3
-70 to 79 points
1
0.4
-80 to 89 points
4
1.7
-90 to 99 points
0
0.0
-100 to 109 points
2
0.9
Total
230
100.0
Table compiled by Smart Politics. Follow Smart Politics on Twitter.

Sunday, November 7, 2010

Ending the Filibuster


| Sun Nov. 7, 2010 9:45 AM PST
Tim Fernholz says Senate Democrats should eliminate the filibuster when they open the 112th session of Congress in January:
Of course, the advantage for Democrats is that they will be able to have more control of the one chamber where they possess a majority, making it easier to pass their own priorities — rather than have the House pass a lot of bills and the Senate take no action, you could see a dynamic where the Senate and the House pass a lot of competing versions of bills, creating both more contrast between the parties and making the possibility of actual legislation more likely.
The funny thing is that this would actually be a pretty good time for Republicans to go along with this. Contra Tim, the fact that the GOP controls the House means that Democrats won't find it easier to pass their own priorities if they ditch the filibuster. But it might set up the contrast Tim mentions, and Republicans seem to think this contrast would be entirely in their favor. What's more, if Republicans genuinely think they can win control of the Senate and the presidency in 2012, getting rid of the filibuster now would serve them pretty well.
But they won't go along anyway. And I doubt very much that Harry Reid can find the votes to do this in the Democratic caucus even if he's inclined to try. He'd need 51 out of 53 votes and Obama's OK (in order for Biden to make the appropriate rulings), and I don't see him getting that.
But what about something narrower? The least defensible use of the filibuster is against executive branch appointments, and I wonder if Republicans couldn't be talked into supporting a change here? Maybe something that does away with the filibuster but puts in place some specific and limited ways that executive branch appointments can be delayed instead. This runs up against the hideous (and bipartisan) ego-driven nature of the Senate, where every member prizes their ability to hold up appointments in order to extort favors of one kind of another from the White House, but still — you never know. With only two years left in Obama's term and Republicans feeling like history is on their side, it's not completely out of the question.