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Friday, March 18, 2011

LIVEBLOG: Obama Says Terms Of UN Resolution Not Negotiable, Qaddafi's Attacks Must Stop

LIBYA


Friday, March 18, 2011 | 5:04 p.m.

JOHN MOORE/GETTY IMAGES
A Libyan government helicopter on its way to attack rebel forces on March 6, 2011 near Ben Jawat, Libya.
5:00 p.m.  CNN reports that Libya's deputy foreign minister called for observers from China, Malta, Turkey and Germany "to come to Libya as soon as possible." To comply with the ceasefire, Libyan government forces will not enter Benghazi, he added, according to Reuters.
4:54 p.m. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said the UN resolution is an "important step" for the international community to take action. "I support the President’s decision to work with our allies to enforce a no-fly zone and take other actions to protect Libyan civilians. Today the President presented Qaddafi with a clear choice and outlined the very serious consequences of ignoring the demands of the people of Libya and the international community," he said in a statement.
“Together with our allies, we should work to ensure that Qaddafi’s transition out of power is swift, and that the people of Libya do not suffer any more than they already have," he said.
4:49 p.m.  President Obama’s speech about the coming no-fly zone over Libya raised more new questions than it answered. National Journal's Yochi J. Dreazen outlines four important questions hanging over the coming Western-led military operations in the skies above Libya. Read it here.
4:48 p.m. Turkey's foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, said his country is evaluating a Libyan request to monitor the ceasefire that Libya's government announced earlier today, Al Jazeera reports.
4:11 p.m.  According to a statement from the French government that echoes Obama's comments from earlier in the day (2:35), France, Britain, the U.S. and Arab countries have told Qaddafi to stop his attacks "immediately" or face military intervention.
"A ceasefire must be put in place immediately, that is that all attacks against civilians must come to an end," the statement said. Qaddafi must "end his troops' advance on Benghazi and withdraw from Ajdabiyah, Misurata and Az Zawiyah and re-establish water, electricity and gas supplies to all areas... that is not negotiable." Otherwise, the UN resolution will be enforced by military means, the statement continued.
3:49 p.m.  Al Jazeera reports that pro-Qaddafi forces are advancing quickly towards Benghazi. Its correspondent in Benghazi reported that the loyalist forces are clashing with rebels about 30 miles away from the city.
3:00 p.m. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry, D-Mass., issued a statement:
“President Obama’s stern ultimatum to Qaddafi is the right message. There must be a full cessation of hostilities immediately. The cease-fire announcement just hours after the UN Security Council made clear our refusal to stand by and watch a massacre, shows that when the world speaks with one voice, it can make a difference.
“But Qaddafi has proven repeatedly that he will do and say anything to hold onto power. We need to see results and not just rhetoric. In other words, President Reagan’s old maxim demands revision: ‘don’t trust -- verify.’"
Kerry said the U.S. must be prepared to take "robust action" with NATO and the Arab League to enforce the UN resolution. He first called for a no-fly zone over Libya on March 2.
2:35 p.m.   President Obama said that Qaddafi was given "ample warning" that he needed to stop his campaign of repression but instead "launched a military campaign against his own people." Obama condemned Qaddafi's remark yesterday that he would show "no mercy and no pity" for the people of the rebel-held city of Benghazi.
"Here’s why this matters to us," Obama said. "Left unchecked we have every reason to believe Qaddafi would commit atrocities against his own people. Many thousands could die. A humanitarian crisis would ensue. The entire region could be destabilized, endangering many allies and partners. The calls of the Libyan people for help would go unanswered, the democratic values that we stand for would be overrun. The words of the international community would be rendered hollow."
Qaddafi has a choice, Obama said. "The resolution that passed lays out very clear conditions that must be met." The U.S., the United Kingdom, France and Arab states agreed that a ceasefire must be implemented immediately.
"That means all attacks against civilians must stop," Obama said, adding that Qaddafi must stop his troops from advancing on Benghazi and pull them back from Ajdabiya, Misurata and other cities, while allowing humanitarian assistance to reach the people of Libya.
"Let me be clear: these terms are not negotiable," he continued. "If Qaddafi does not comply with the resolution, the international community will impose consequences. And the resolution will be enforced through military action." The United States is prepared to act as part of an international coalition in this effort, Obama said, noting that "American leadership is essential but that does not mean acting alone. It means shaping the conditions for the international community to act together."
Obama did specify that the U.S. is not going to deploy ground troops into Libya, and will not use force "to go beyond a well-defined goal, specifically the protection of civilians in Libya."
Obama said he directed Defense Secretary Robert Gates to begin planning and that Clinton will travel to France tomorrow for meetings with allies.
1:55 p.m. President Obama is due to speak in 5 minutes on Libya. Watch it here.
1:51 p.m.  Malta will not allow UN forces to use its bases to enforce a no-fly zone, as the country is politically neutral by constitution, AFP reports. Al Jazeera adds that Maltese Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi said it will, however, allow military aircraft from other countries to use its airspace.
1:33 p.m.  Libya's former deputy ambassador to the UN, Ibrahim Dabbashi, tells Al Jazeera the "ceasefire" is not in effect but instead "one of the tricks of Colonel Qaddafi."
"We are sure that he is still shelling the city of Misurata and also some other cities. And I think he is just gaining time, because now he saw that the international community is ready to attack his forces, and he is trying to show that he is flexible and he will stop killing the innocent people," he said.
1:11 p.m.  France does not want NATO involved in UN-sanctioned military action in Libya. French foreign ministry spokesman Bernard Valero tells AFP: "We do not think it would be the right signal to send that NATO, as such, intervenes in an Arab nation. Allies have not taken a political position concerning NATO's involvement."
12:59 p.m.  The White House provided a list of lawmakers who are participating in the meeting with Obama (see 11:42). They are:
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev.; Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich.; Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind.; Sen. Saxby Chambliss, R-Ga.; Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich.; Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger, D-Md.; House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio; Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va.; Minority LeaderNancy Pelosi, D-Calif.; Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, D-Md.; Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill.; Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.; Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz.; Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass.; Sen.Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif.; Rep. Buck McKeon, R-Calif.; Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla.; Rep.Howard Berman, D-Calif.
12:56 p.m.  BBC reports that the African Union is sending a delegation of five heads of state-- including Uganda's president, Yoweri Museveni-- to Tripoli to talk to Qaddafi, a mission that was planned before the UN resolution.
12:36 p.m.  A member of the Libyan opposition National Council in Misurata, Mohamed Ali, tells Al Jazeera that there has been "absolutely indiscriminate shelling" there:
"There is no ceasefire in Misurata. Shells are landing all over the city right now, as we speak. I hope you can hear them in the background, I'll move closer to the window so you can hear them. The murderous dictator has attacked the city this morning... And they were shooting their way into the centre of the city, which they haven't managed."
12:27 p.m.  A Libyan government spokesman tells the BBC that not only has the ceasefire been in effect, but that Libya has asked Turkish and Maltese authorities to help implement and supervise it. The spokesman denied that pro-Qaddafi forces continue to strike in Misurata or anywhere else, despite reports from multiple news organizations to the contrary.
11:57 a.m.  Spain's prime minister, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, said he asked parliament to authorize the Spanish military to help enforce the no-fly zone and called the UN resolution a "truly historic step," according to the BBC. See 8:23 for more information on Spain's participation.
11:42 a.m.  President Obama will consult with a "bipartisan group of Congressional leaders" on Libya at 12:30 p.m. in the Situation Room. He will then deliver a statement on the situation in Libya at 2 p.m. 
11:36 a.m.  Germany abstained from voting on last night's UNSC resolution. Today, BBC reports that German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Germany will not take part in military intervention.
Merkel added: "We unreservedly share the aims of this resolution. Our abstention should not be confused with neutrality."
11:34 a.m.  Drawn toward an important inflection point in his presidency this week, President Obama revealed none of the lead-with-the-chin swagger of his predecessor. Playing to type, he instead adopted the mien of the reluctant warrior, National Journal's James Kitfield writes.
11:24 a.m.  Italy's foreign minister, Franco Frattini, said the country will offer its military bases to those operating the no-fly zone over Libya and that Italy will take "an active role" in any operations against Qaddafi, according to the BBC. Italywill also close its embassy in Tripoli.
After Frattini's remarks, Italy's defense minister, Ignazio La Russa, said Italy will only take part in a military coalition against Libya if parliament votes in favor, BBC reports.
11:20 a.m.  According to a new Fox News poll released today, 43 percent of those polled said they approved of how the Obama administration is dealing with the situation in Libya. Another 35 percent said they disapproved, with 21 percent saying they don't know.

When asked if they favored or opposed the U.S. military  "getting involved" with the situation in Libya, 65 percent said they opposed U.S. military action with 25 percent saying they favored it. Only 9 percent said they didn't know.
11:01 a.m. The Libyan Youth Movement tweets, "Very large explosions heard and continuing west of Tripoli."
10:59 a.m. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said UN action is “only… an important step.” In planning a course of action, Clinton stressed that it is “important that we take this one step at a time."
The first and most urgent need is for Qaddafi to stop the violence, she said. “We have to see a very clear set of decisions that are operationalized on the ground by Qaddafi’s forces to move physically a significant distance away from the East, where they have been pursuing their campaign against the opposition. There will have to be an accounting of what has already occurred… there are many stories of…massacres, abductions… Until we can have a better idea of what actually happened, it’s hard to know what the next steps will be.”
Clinton said she’d seen press reports that the Libyan government had announced a ceasefire but said the U.S. is not going to be “responsive or impressed by words” but needs to see clear results “on the ground and that is not yet at all clear.” See more on Clinton's comments here.
10:56 a.m. The Libyan Youth Movement tweets, "[Qaddafi] ceasefire nonexistent... we never trusted him and we never will."
10:53 a.m. Clinton calls for Qaddafi to stop the violence, again.
10:51 a.m. Clinton: "Let's take this one step at a time."
10:42 a.m. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is speaking about the crisis now.
10:25 a.m. See NJ correspondent James Kitfield's report on Obama's response to the ongoing crisis -- "The Reluctant Warrior" -- here.
10:15 a.m. You can see the complete text of United Nations Security Council resolution 1973, authorizing military action to protect Libya's civilians from the forces of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi,here.
10:09 a.m. Gen. David Petraeus said no U.S. military assets from Afghanistan are being sent, or will be sent, to Libya.
9:57 a.m. Former State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley tweets, "Qaddafi: 'It's over. The issue has been decided.' True, since the international community is now committed to action that will defeat him."
9:55 a.m. The Misurata resident says "Misurata is on fire, under fire."
9:54 a.m. A Misurata, Libya, resident tells CNN "there is NO ceasefire...[Qaddafi] has been lying to the world for 42 years."
9:43 a.m. The BBC is also live-blogging the crisis in Libya.
9:26 a.m. Foreign Policy reports that "several administration officials held a classified briefing for all senators on Thursday afternoon in the bowels of the Capitol building, leaving lawmakers convinced President Barack Obama is ready to attack Libya but wondering if it isn't too late to help the rebels there."
9:16 a.m. The New York Times reports that its four missing journalists, who were captured by forces loyal to Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, will be released today. 
9:14 a.m. Oil futures fell on news of the ceasefire announcement, Reuters reports.
9:07 a.m. Check out Marc Lynch's analysis of "the U.N.'s high-stakes gamble in Libya" on Foreign Policy's blog.
9:04 a.m. President Obama will likely address the nation on the crisis in Libya this afternoon, a senior administration official told reporters.
8:55 a.m. Former Assistant Secretary of State James Rubin said on CNN that “by calling an immediate ceasefire they’re meeting some of the terms of the resolution… The good news is the people of Benghazi have probably been saved as a result of this resolution… but now we’re in a situation where we’re going to have to have… verification… to see whether there really is a ceasefire.”
8:52 a.m. Libyan Foreign Minister Kussa said Libya will protect civilians and all foreigners in the country, CNN reports.
8:43 a.m. Libyan Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa said his country is committed to accepting the U.N. Security Council resolution, calling an immediate ceasefire and the stopping of all military operations.
8:41 a.m. The United States has not sent any F-22s yet, according to the U.S. military.
8:33 a.m. The spokesman for British Prime Minister David Cameron said there will be a joint statement from Cameron, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and other world leaders in the next few hours that will set out the moves to enforce the UN Security Council resolution, the BBC reports.
8:30 a.m. Libya shut down its air space in the face of anticipated air strikes by France and Britain, AFP reports.
8:23 a.m. Spain will allow NATO to use two of its military bases for the operation over Libya, according to AFP. Defense Minister Carme Chacon said Spain will also provide air and naval forces for use in air operations.
8:18 a.m. Gold futures gained early Friday on news that the U.N. approved of a no-fly zone over Libya, the Wall Street Journal reports. Gold for April delivery gained $8.90 to $1,413.10 an ounce in electronic trading on Globex.
8:16 a.m. Crude oil futures traded above $103 per barrel in Asia Friday on news that the U.N. backed the creation of a no-fly zone over Libya, the Wall Street Journal reports.
8:08 a.m. British Prime Minister David Cameron said Britain will send Typhoon and Tornado fighter jets to help enforce a no-fly zone over Libya, the AP reports. Britain is holding emergency meetings.
8:04 a.m. France is moving to start military operations against Libya “in a matter of hours” following U.N. Security Council authorization, Reuters reports.
"The French, who led the calls (for action), will of course be consistent with military intervention," French government spokesman Francois Baroin told a radio station Friday. "The strikes will take place soon."
French President Nicolas Sarkozy has met with his defense minister, prime minister and armed forces chief; he is expected to seek support for a plan to host talks between the European Union, African Union and Arab League as early as tomorrow.



 

Obama’s Fuzzy Oil Production Math

ENERGY


Bush administration actions have led to gains in supply.

Thursday, March 17, 2011 | 1:57 p.m.
DAVID MCNEW/GETTY IMAGES
Updated at 8:45 p.m. on March 17 to include White House comment.
He doesn’t want to admit it, but President Obama is taking credit for something George W. Bush did.
The White House is touting federal data that shows domestic oil production is at its highest level since 2003. In a blog post last week, Obama’s top climate and energy aide, Heather Zichal, points to Energy Information Administration data that shows oil production from the Outer Continental Shelf (which basically means the Gulf of Mexico) has increased by more than a third between 2008 and 2010.
EIA Administrator Richard Newell says it takes several years for any major federal policy action -- such as issuing leases -- to affect domestic oil production.
Infographic
“Even if one has development drilling going on, there is about a one- to three-year lag between drilling and production that one will see,” Newell said during a break in a House Natural Resources Committee hearing on Thursday. “If you’re on a longer term -- for example, new leases being issued in an area -- you can be on a several-year time frame before you can see a relationship between new leases and production. So there are significant lags.”
While Bush was in office from 2001 to 2009, the oil and gas industry saw many new leases and other expanded drilling opportunities. In March 2010, Obama announced plans to expand offshore drilling, but he retreated in the aftermath of the BP oil spill.
According to EIA’s short-term 2011 outlook, released last week, oil production was significantly higher in 2009 than in the years prior. Obama may have been in office for most of that year, but the oil production numbers are due to action taken before he became president. In 2010, most if not all of the production increase recorded is likely due to action that predates Obama, since Obama didn’t take any major action expanding offshore drilling his first year in office.
“One can attribute an upswing in the Gulf of Mexico over the last several years to increasing leases and developing of deep-water drilling,” said Newell, who declined to comment specifically about whether or not those leases were issued under Bush’s -- and not Obama’s -- watch.
“I haven’t evaluated; one would have to go back and look at specific projects coming on line at different points in time,” Newell said.
White House spokesman Clark Stevens noted that EIA's oil production data was cited as "a matter of fact" as opposed to touting the increase in any way. "As our policy makes clear, this administration continues to encourage domestic exploration and production, and our top priority is ensuring that this production is done safely and responsibly," Stevens said in an e-mail to National Journal Daily.
EIA’s short-term outlook projects a decrease in domestic oil production in 2011 and 2012. Newell sees a few reasons for that.
A decline corresponding to an upsurge in offshore production over the past few years would be natural, he said: “That’s a natural decline that we would have been forecasting probably regardless of what happened in offshore in terms of the moratorium and regulation, etc.”
The predicted decrease in gulf production is due at least partly to the administration’s actions taken after the BP oil spill -- an unfortunate projection for the White House, as it’s trying to stay on offense in the debate over gas prices going into the 2012 election cycle.
“A portion of that, though, is associated with the [BP] well blowout, moratorium and subsequent regulatory delays,” Newell added.
That projection bolsters the position of Republicans like Rep. Jeff Landry of Louisiana and the American Petroleum Institute. Since Zichal’s blog post last week, API and other oil lobbyists have argued that the administration was taking credit for action taken before Obama was in office.
Newell noted that there has not been any actual impact from the moratorium and new regulations.
“We have yet to see a downward impact on offshore production in response to the Macondo well blowout, and the subsequent moratorium and regulatory changes that took place,” Newell said. But given his agency’s outlook, one is expected.
Later on in the hearing, Landry, a member of the House Natural Resources Committee, grilled Newell on his involvement of the administration’s position on EIA’s data.
“Did you send that information to the White House?” Landry asked.
“There is data from that fact sheet that comes from EIA,” Newell acknowledged. “I was not involved in providing that data.”

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